Curcic: The rise of the right wing in the EU will not affect the change in policy towards Western Balkans

Researcher at the Institute for European Studies, Petar Curcic, stated that despite the rise of the right in Europe, it should not be expected that the results of the upcoming European Parliament elections would influence a change in policy towards the Western Balkans and the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue.

"It should not be expected that the results of future European elections will affect the course of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. However, what is more realistic is that there will be a resolution at the international level, primarily the US elections, the crisis in the Middle East, the relations between Europe and the US, as well as Europe-Russia and Russia-US relations," Curcic said for Kosovo Online.

He cites a key reason being that the European Parliament does not have a significant role in the institutional mechanism, but also that the participation of right-wing parties in government does not necessarily mean a radical change in policy.

"The European Parliament does not have such an important role in the EU's institutional mechanism. It is an agreement among states. However, it should be expected in that direction that individual elections in European countries could shape the policies of those countries towards the EU. We saw, for example, in the case of the Netherlands how the potential rise of Geert Wilders could have influenced. However, examples from Italy and Sweden show us that the fundamental course of these countries has not changed much. In fact, in the case of Sweden, with the entry of extreme right-wing democrats into the government, it showed that they only accelerated the country's integration into NATO. Therefore, it should not be expected that the European Parliament will be a direct reflection of changes, but it can be said that it will be an indicator of the next elections," Curcic said.

He reminds that national elections will be held next year in the key EU members.

"One should not forget that besides federal elections in Germany, there are elections in France and Italy. Italy is a specific country where early elections often occur. There is also Spain, which can be particularly interesting to us because of the case of Catalonia's secession, and not only that, but also the Basque Country. These are countries that can influence events here," Curcic said.

Speaking about the upcoming European Parliament elections, Curcic says that forecasts suggest that Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservatives and Reformists Party, two firmly right-wing-oriented parties with clear Euroscepticism, could achieve significant results.

"However, it is expected that they will not enter the government, but that they will be a very strong opposition," Curcic said.

Estimates also suggest that the biggest losers of the European Parliament elections could be far-left-oriented parties.

"It is expected that parties of the center-left, primarily Socialists and Democrats, should repeat the electoral results from previous years. Liberals, Greens, and Social Democrats are expected to remain at the same level," Curcic said.

He emphasizes that there are several reasons for the phenomenon of the rise of the right, strengthening the right wing in Europe.

"The rise of the right wing has multiple roots. First of all, there are problems with the institutional definition of the European Union. Whether it should move towards a stronger centralization or towards the decentralization of Europe's nations," Curcic emphasizes.

He also warns that caution is needed in assessments of the rise of the right wing in the EU because there are "three shades" of right-wing-oriented parties on the political scene.

"The first is a group of right-center parties gathered around the European People's Party, however, throughout history, they have shown to be very consistent guardians of European integrations. A party belonging to that group is the Christian Democratic Union in Germany, where Angela Merkel has been the longtime leader," Curcic explains.

He adds that the other two groups - more firmly right-wing, gathered around Identity and Democracy (ID) and the Conservative Reformist Party, do not have a clear relationship with the EU but, on the other hand, are great critics of migration policy and liberal values.

"They have also shown criticism towards the eurozone, as well as towards models of financial and military integration of the EU, which, however, due to the war in Ukraine, can no longer be realized because NATO has proven to be the central node," Curcic concluded.