Dimitrov: EU's new security strategy will not affect the Western Balkans

Researcher at the Belgrade Centre for European Policy Djordje Dimitrov believes that the new security strategy announced by EU officials will not have an impact on the Western Balkans, despite the EU's clear intention to strengthen its defense capabilities.

"It is unlikely that the new EU security strategy will come into effect before 2028 and the approval of a new budget, and since Western Balkan countries are not EU members, it's unlikely to happen before 2030. These commitments will not apply to them except perhaps in terms of funds, including the approved six billion euros for the Western Balkans Growth Plan, which is still under debate," Dimitrov says.

He explains that the idea of strengthening EU defense capabilities is not new but has now been brought to the forefront not only due to the war in Ukraine but also because of the US elections and the expectation among Europeans that the return of Donald Trump could lead to a change in their policy.

"In this way, the European Union aims to strengthen its capacities, its autonomy regarding defense, and become less dependent on the United States. This is a factual situation since many European states actually rely on the United States for defense against Russia and other threats," Dimitrov emphasizes.

He explains that, in practice, this would mean enhancing cooperation among EU members in purchasing weapons and exchanging intelligence.

However, he emphasizes that the fundamental problem is how to secure funds for such a project.

Dimitrov points out that the estimates suggest that around 750 billion euros would be needed for such an endeavor, and he says that the European Union currently does not have this money.

"The current budget does not provide for it. Ursula von der Leyen has presented a few ideas, including using frozen Russian assets, urging the European Investment Bank to reconsider its policy that prohibits using its funds and investments for purchasing weapons and ammunition, and thirdly, joint borrowing. The question now is how EU member states would react to this. There are already objections. Some states expressed concerns last summer and said that the European Commission had exceeded its powers when it sought a joint purchase of ammunition for Ukraine. The position of a defense commissioner is also mentioned. But that will also have to wait for elections in order to see if it will be implemented," Dimitrov notes.

He adds that regarding the budget issue, there is also the fact that many EU member states already have trouble servicing NATO's budget, which requires two percent of Gross National Income.

"The question arises whether member states will be able to additionally meet the needs of European defense," Dimitrov emphasizes.

He says that divisions within the EU also exist when it comes to forming joint armed forces, or a European army.

"There's talk about forming a European army, which was last brought up by Italy's foreign minister, but it immediately faced disapproval from some countries, including Spain, Slovenia, Poland, and Denmark. They see it as duplication, an unnecessary addition to NATO's capacities," Dimitrov believes.