Elections in Montenegro: Could there be consequences for the future relations between Podgorica and Pristina?

In less than two weeks, the citizens of Montenegro will elect the fourth president since independence in the second round of elections. According to forecasts, the young Jakov Milatovic, the candidate of the "Europe Now" movement, has a great chance of taking over the position of head of state, who on April 2nd will run against the current president, Milo Djukanovic. The question arises as to how a possible change in the position of the head of state could affect the relations between Podgorica and Pristina.

Analysts see Milatovic, a former minister in the government of Zdravko Krivokapic, as the winner, because, among other things, the Democratic Front candidate Andrija Mandic, who was in third place, as well as the Prime Minister in the technical mandate and the leader of the URA Dritan Abazovic, who is in the first round, announced his support to Aleksa Becic.

Much is expected of Jakov Milatovic in Montenegro, but not to change the relationship of official Podgorica towards Pristina.

Analysts Vladimir Pavicevic and Predrag Rajic agree that Jakov Milatovic will be the new president of Montenegro, that he cannot change Podgorica's attitude towards Kosovo, which it recognizes as an independent state, but that he certainly will not promote anti-Serb rhetoric.

Pavicevic assesses for Kosovo Online that on April 2, Jakov Milatovic is sure to win, because he is the absolute favorite, in a political atmosphere that indicates that "Milo is finally going into political retirement."

"When it comes to the attitude towards Kosovo, and especially towards the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, my assumption is that Milatovic will have an initial thesis that Podgorica can only welcome everything agreed upon in the dialogue by the officials of Pristina and Belgrade," Pavicevic believes.

He adds that Milatovic, as the president of the country, can constantly send messages encouraging dialogue and compromise.

"I think that this is the idea of Jakov Milatovic and, if that were his approach, it would be a rational approach from the point of view of Podgorica, and I believe also of Belgrade and Pristina," Pavicevic said.

He reminds that Montenegro is a member of NATO, but that it was not a topic during the campaign, neither affirmative nor critical, so in that sense, it was not even mentioned that Kosovo should be integrated into the Euro-Atlantic structures.

"From the position of the president, Milatovic will be very careful about defining that position and that his idea will be to be directed towards constant encouragement of that dialogue," Pavicevic assesses.

This, he adds, is a kind of principled position that implies a cautious but good attitude towards the position of the official Belgrade, but also towards what is reality and what Pristina is building its position on.

"If Jakov Milatovic were to do that, it would be the wisest thing - let's see what could be the compromise that will be reached in a direct dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. And, that means that both parties will give some kind of consent for that final deal. And, what is left for Montenegro but to say - we welcome, congratulate, and now encourage reaching an agreement," Pavicevic said.

Kosovo was not the topic of this presidential campaign, but Serbia was, often in a negative context.

Rajic tells Kosovo Online that it is no longer important what Milo Djukanovic would like and in which direction he would lead Montenegro, since, he says, after the second round of elections on April 2, he will go into the opposition and very likely into political history, after which he will only have to retire from politics and leave the head of the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro.

For Rajic, defeat is inevitable; it's just a matter of difference in favor of Jakov Milatovic.

He points out that Milatovic will not fundamentally change his relationship with Pristina, because he is a candidate who has firm Euro-Atlantic views, and his goal is for Montenegro to become as reliable and important a member of the NATO alliance as possible.

"He absolutely supports the policy of Montenegro remaining and progressing within NATO, he wants to see Montenegro as an even more important partner of the US than it is now, and as a full member of the EU. In this context, Milatovic will absolutely follow the policy of Washington and Berlin in this region. So we shouldn't expect any sudden changes," Rajic believes.

He states, however, that in rhetoric, Jakov Milatovic will be different from Milo Djukanovic and that he will not insist that Podgorica and Pristina build their relations in the form of some kind of anti-Serb alliance, which Djukanovic cultivated.

Jakov will certainly not cultivate it, but he will continue to cooperate with the Pristina authorities and will look at Kosovo as an independent state, not as a part of Serbia. There is no indication that he would go in the direction of lowering relations between Podgorica and Pristina, on a diplomatic or political level," Rajic points out.

What Milatovic, if he becomes the president of Montenegro, could contribute to, is the inclusion of Podgorica in the "Open Balkan".

Pavicevic reminds that Milatovic already had several comments in public about whether Montenegro should join the "Open Balkan", in which he spoke affirmatively of that regional initiative and emphasized that it seemed to him that Montenegro could benefit.

"I expect that he, from the position of the president of the state, will encourage the idea of Montenegro acceding as soon as possible. This government has already taken several steps towards that," Pavicevic said.

Rajic also believes that Milatovic would influence the new government after the June elections if it were to go in that direction.

He reminds that this is not the responsibility of the president, but of the government in Podgorica, but that Milatovic will look to promote or support that process, unlike Djukanovic, who prevented it or tried to hinder it from the position of president.

"He cannot make a decision on Montenegro's entry into the 'Open Balkan', but he can facilitate the process, to begin with by not preventing or making it difficult, and I even think that he will sincerely support it because he sees that it is in the interest of Podgorica," Rajic notes.

He adds that it would be the third great success for the Serbian community in Montenegro after the 2020 elections.

"We had a list of national declarations, we have signed the Fundamental Agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church, which is excellent in terms of content, and which finally protects the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro, and if Podgorica were to enter the 'Open Balkan', we would have another level of economic integration in the region, of which Montenegro and Serbia are an integral part, and that can only be good for Serbian-Montenegrin relations.