Gogic: Individual departures from Self-Determination do not indicate a decline in trust within the party

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic says for Kosovo Online that the recent departure of a few Self-Determination MPs from the party does not suggest a significant decline in trust or dissatisfaction within the party.

He reminds that Self-Determination has gone through some splits before, such as when Pristina’s mayor, Shpend Ahmeti, left the party, but notes that despite this, the party continued to grow.

"Even now, with Kurti maintaining his approval rating at a historic high, and that rating remaining stable, it doesn't seem like these individual departures could seriously jeopardize Self-Determination's electoral results," Gogic believes.

If there were a major split in the party, which in his view is not on the horizon, such as an entire faction breaking away, that could potentially change the situation.

"There has been speculation about whether the Americans might consider encouraging part of the membership to break away and weaken Self-Determination, but that doesn't seem like a likely scenario. It appears to be more about individual departures, possibly involving people dissatisfied with their status in the party, leading them to leave out of personal dissatisfaction. But this does not point to a major decline in trust or widespread dissatisfaction within the party," Gogic says.

He believes it is highly likely that Self-Determination will win the elections and do so with enough strength to form the government again.

"For now, unless something drastic changes, it doesn’t seem like anything can stand in the way of that. However, if a mathematical scenario emerges where other opposition groups, together with other communities such as the Serbs and others, could form a majority, that coalition would not be long-lasting. We have seen that before in Kosovo, when there are crises in relations among partners, Kurti and Self-Determination would probably return to power very quickly. It seems that the time of Self-Determination and Albin Kurti's government in Kosovo is not over yet, and we will likely have to wait a bit longer for that," Gogic concludes.