Gogic: The split with Osmani will affect Kurti’s ratings; there will be new pressure on Serbs

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic emphasized that the split with Vjosa Osmani will have consequences for the ratings of Albin Kurti and the Self-Determination Movement in the upcoming June 7 elections. During the election campaign, he expects new pressure on the Serbian community and the Serb List, as Albanian parties will seek to gain political points by shifting attention away from domestic issues.

Speaking to RTS, Gogic recalled that Osmani and Kurti were the duo that led Kosovo in the previous period and appeared inseparable.

However, he added, Kurti did not support, for reasons he has still not explained, Osmani’s re-election as President of Kosovo.

“That split cannot pass without consequences for Kurti’s ratings,” Gogic stressed.

He pointed out that Kurti won a record number of votes in December thanks to diaspora votes, which was made possible by Osmani scheduling the elections at a time when the diaspora comes to Kosovo.

“Now things have changed and the elections are scheduled for early June, when the diaspora is not present in such large numbers in Kosovo. Another problem for Kurti is the split with Osmani. Many of his voters resented the fact that he did not support Osmani’s re-election, a decision he never explained. I do not expect Kurti to repeat the December results, but will most likely achieve a result similar to the one from February last year,” Gogic explained.

He pointed out that the local population is tired and fed up with unsuccessful election cycles.

Gogic believes that Kurti will win the elections because he has a stable voter base, but that the June 7 elections will bring a redistribution of votes, primarily in favor of the LDK.

He expects that the opposition, together with minority communities, will have enough votes to form a government.

However, Gogic points out that the question is whether the opposition will have the initiative to form a government, because the election of the president is a heavy burden hanging over it.

“A two-thirds majority in parliament is needed to elect the president, and the key question is whether Kurti will have enough mandates to block that process. That is why I expect new elections in the autumn. Once again, there will not be a stable majority for electing a president, and without Kurti it will not be possible. The election of the president will once again prove to be a stumbling block,” he added.

Gogic said that a verdict for Hashim Thaci is also expected, which will affect the new elections that could follow, and in which he will certainly be a factor in some way.

He stressed that almost all parties have used the KLA issue for political gain, and that if Thaci were to return to Kosovo he would certainly support his party, the Democratic Party of Kosovo.

Gogic expects that during the current election campaign there will be “dirty laundry aired” between Kurti and Osmani, while the former president will try to portray Kurti’s anti-American stance and herself as a person advocating transatlantic cooperation.

When it comes to the Serbian community and the Serb List, Gogic is convinced that there will once again be problems regarding the participation of the Serb List in the elections.

“The Serb List and the Serbian community serve as scapegoats during the election campaign in order to divert attention from domestic issues and gain points through nationalism. There will probably again be problems with the verification of the Serb List candidates. I expect a repeat of the scenario in which the Central Election Commission does not verify the Serb List candidate list, and that this will only happen after an appeal,” Gogic explained.

He warned that a new attack by Kurti on Serbian educational and healthcare institutions will follow.

“What worries the Serbs is that Kurti has opened the issue of the status of educational and healthcare institutions, a question that still hangs in the air. A new assault on those institutions can be expected during the election campaign,” Gogic stressed.

He also recalled that the deadline expires on June 15 for persons living in Kosovo who do not have Kosovo documents, because in practice there are problems in obtaining those papers and regulating their status.

According to him, this is currently an unfavorable moment in which the issue is not being discussed.

Regarding the statement by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas that she does not expect dialogue until the political situation in Kosovo stabilizes, Gogic said that although there are no conditions for a high-level meeting, this does not release Pristina from the obligation to implement the agreements that have already been reached.