Gogic: Von der Leyen will continue to support the Western Balkans integration into the EU in her second term

Ursula von der Leyen will continue to support the integration of the Western Balkans into the European Union in her second term as President of the European Commission, although the key decision-makers on this issue are the member states, which determine the pace of the region's integration, if it occurs at all. Nonetheless, von der Leyen is certainly an ally of this region within the European Commission in terms of the enlargement process, political scientist Ognjen Gogic says to Kosovo Online.

He adds that during von der Leyen's first term, the issue of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue was not at the top of her agenda, and she had other priorities, but she did address this issue, among other reasons, because it is connected with the EU enlargement policy, which she was very interested in.

Considering that von der Leyen last autumn called on Serbia to de facto recognize Kosovo, Gogic says she did so only after EU member states had defined the European plan for Serbia and Kosovo regarding the path to normalization. He also emphasizes that the European Union's approach to the dialogue is not defined by the European Commission and commissioners, nor by the President of the Commission or the High Representative, but they are the implementers of decisions made by the member states.

"This plan was primarily defined by Scholz and Macron, and then Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni joined them. The three of them first called on Serbia and Kosovo to implement the obligations from that agreement in a letter in October last year, which, as they themselves explained, for Serbia actually means de facto recognition of Kosovo. They were the first to say that the implementation of the Brussels and Ohrid agreements means de facto recognition, and then Ursula von der Leyen repeated it. So, she did not present a new idea, concept, or demand, but repeated what the heads of states and governments themselves had defined," Gogic states.

He points out that the future approach and demands of the European Union will not depend on her, but she will implement the policy of the most powerful member states.

"As things stand now, as Borrell said, people change, but the policy remains the same. So, for now, the European Union's policy towards the dialogue essentially means further implementation of the obligations from Brussels and Ohrid, which actually means, according to their interpretation, de facto recognition of Kosovo. The role of von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas will be to implement that policy until it changes, but it should be noted that this agreement has failed, that this policy has crashed, and that the EU will very likely have to somehow redefine the entire approach once the new European Commission is elected because this one has reached a dead end and it is not expected that new progress in the implementation of these obligations can be made," Gogic believes.

However, our interlocutor points out that even if Serbia were to recognize Kosovo de jure, it would likely not move significantly closer to the European Union because the EU is not ready to accept new members at this moment.

"The stagnation in the enlargement policy exists primarily due to internal reasons within the European Union, which is not ready to take significant steps towards accepting new members. This is what makes it difficult for all the countries in the region to join, even those that are leading, such as Montenegro, and the path of Serbia and Kosovo to the EU is long and difficult, not because of their internal issues or mutual relations, but also because of the internal relations within the EU itself. In this sense, the leadership of Serbia understands that even if all these expected obligations were fulfilled, it would not significantly move Serbia towards the EU, and therefore there is no incentive to work on that," Gogic says.

He illustratively notes that everything goes in circles because, to move forward in fulfilling obligations, Serbia expects the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities as an obligation that has not been fulfilled for 11 years, while on the other hand, Kosovo expects de facto recognition from Serbia as the first step before it starts working on forming the Community.

"The reason why Kosovo views things this way is that it is aware that as long as Serbia does not recognize Kosovo, even de facto, the five non-recognizing EU states will not do so either. Therefore, a change in attitude towards Kosovo is necessary for these states to reconsider their position. As long as Serbia resolutely refuses to recognize Kosovo and Kosovo's membership in the EU, these five non-recognizing states will not change their position, thereby blocking Kosovo's path to the EU. Other European countries are well aware of this too. And that is why Serbia is called upon to de facto recognize Kosovo, so that these other states, Spain, Greece, and others, would do so as well. We are in a vicious circle," concludes Gogic.

Commenting on Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's statement that it is good news for Serbia if Ursula von der Leyen gets a second term as President of the European Commission, Gogic says that President Vucic welcomed her reappointment partly because she made significant steps towards EU enlargement during her mandate.

"During her mandate, two very significant initiatives for our region were launched: one is the formation of a common regional market, and the other is the recently initiated Growth Plan for the Western Balkans. These are all results of her work, and she will continue to support the integration of the Western Balkans into the EU as President of the European Commission. What connects von der Leyen and President Vucic is political affiliation, as President Vucic comes from the Serbian Progressive Party, which is part of the European People's Party family, to which Ursula von der Leyen's Christian Democratic Union also belongs. There are much better relations between the authorities in Serbia and European Christian Democrats and conservatives than with social Democrats, greens, and others. So, there is a kind of political closeness between them," Gogic states.