Kolakovic: No foreign policy changes should be expected if the right-wing wins in France

Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Political Studies, Aleksandra Kolakovic, tells Kosovo Online that regardless of which party will be the leading force in the French parliament after the elections, whose first round is held tomorrow, no major deviations from Paris's current approach to the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue should be expected. She reminds that France has a presidential system, and it is the president who is responsible for the country's foreign policy direction.

"Great powers, and France considers itself a great power, stick firmly to their agendas and convictions in shaping foreign policy, and political changes are more likely to be felt in domestic politics rather than in foreign policy. The Belgrade-Pristina dialogue is conducted in a European format. We have the Franco-German proposal that passed through the European framework, and these main negotiations are held in Brussels. We see that after the recent European elections, although the right has risen, the EU's leadership has not significantly changed. Ursula von der Leyen remains at the helm of the European Commission, and there are some other familiar faces, but it is the same group of political forces," Kolakovic notes.

She emphasizes that polls currently indicate that Marine Le Pen's National Rally, led by Jordan Bardella, who would be the prime minister representing this party, could win between 30% and 34% of the votes, the People's Front, or the united left-wing parties, between 24% and 27%, and President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party between 19% and 22%.

"However, it should be noted that the second-round results are also important, where all those who receive more than 12.5% of the votes enter, creating room for the final result. If the right-wing party potentially forms an absolute majority, that is just one scenario, as it is more likely they will have the most MPs in parliament but will not be able to form an absolute majority, as current polls and research suggest," Kolakovic says.

For all right-wing parties, including in France, she notes, a pattern often repeats where, after coming to power, they partially or completely abandon the proclaimed goals stated during the campaign. Even now, the National Rally is seen distancing itself from Russia.

"In an effort to appeal to centrist voters, Marine Le Pen's party has significantly abandoned some previously dominant ideas, including antisemitic sentiments, and distancing itself from Russia. Bardella, in particular, highlights in his speeches that he will not allow Russia to threaten France's national interests, stating that it has done so in recent months and years, particularly in Africa. He also mentioned that he wouldn't send additional or any troops to Ukraine but is open to helping Ukraine in defense. Here we see a significant difference compared to earlier, regarding that main axis of foreign policy, which then determines all others. And that is not a major departure from what is essentially Emmanuel Macron's foreign policy," our interlocutor points out.

Kolakovic also says that a characteristic of all right-wing parties, including in the current French political landscape, is a strong desire to strengthen France, which means that if the right-wing comes to power, they would focus more on domestic political issues, leaving other problems in the background.