Pata: Cyberattack on Albania a signal that we could face a hybrid war as a precursor to a real one

While the world is currently confused about the precise details and timing of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, political analyst and editor at the daily newspaper Tema from Tirana, Ilir Pata, believes that if there is a new escalation of conflict in the Middle East, it could also affect the Western Balkans. Supporting this view, he points to the cyberattack by Iran on the website of the Tirana municipality, “which shows that the Ayatollah's regime is attacking a NATO country.”

“We know that for years the most active opposition to the (Iranian) regime was in Albania. We also know that members of this opposition, the Mujahedin from the MeK camp, were the main people involved in uncovering Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and there is evidence that their people inside Iran were also partners of the West and Israel in the dramatic situation that led to the first attacks in which leaders of the army and the Revolutionary Guard were killed. I think this (cyber) attack was a very clear signal from Tehran that it will stop at nothing. What happened is dramatic for us, but also for NATO, because if red lines are crossed, and they already have been, that creates major problems in terms of how Albania will be involved in this conflict,” Pata told Kosovo Online.

He also believes that the cyberattack on the Tirana municipality website is not just an Iranian attack, noting that Iran is not strategically interested in the Western Balkans, despite having good trade relations with Serbia, Hungary, and some other countries.

“Russia is involved in the Western Balkans and is interested in keeping this region in turmoil. However, it is not just Russia, China is also one of the main investors in our region. China has very good relations with Serbia, Hungary, and several other countries, like North Macedonia, with investments of several billion euros. The cyberattack was a clear political provocation, not just against Albania but also against NATO, and it comes as a warning that the situation could become more complicated. Behind this signal, I don’t see Iran, but rather other intelligence services that operate in such cases and send their own messages. From a practical point of view, the damage done can easily be repaired, but it is also a signal that we could be facing a hybrid war as a precursor to a real war, as we have seen in Iran,” Pata assessed.

He adds that turbulent times have arrived for the Balkans, as efforts are visibly being made to redesign the global order. During such changes, history has shown, he says, that conflicts tend to arise first, followed by efforts to resolve the causes of conflict between states.

“There are many conflicting interests in the Balkans, and many territorial issues, in almost all countries. Greece against Albania, Serbia against Kosovo and vice versa, the issue of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria against North Macedonia and vice versa, Hungary against Romania, and also Romania with Moldova... Our entire region, not just the Western Balkans but what we might call the old Balkans, or as it is now called, Southeastern Europe, finds itself in a completely new situation, which could worsen just like we are seeing in the Middle East. That is because there’s talk of a new world order, and that means there will be ‘adjustments’ made by the ‘masters’ of intelligence services and military powers. As is well known, the consequences of these situations are borne by ordinary people,” he said.

He emphasizes that he believes there will be problematic situations in the region because the good relations that were established a few years ago between Serbia, Croatia, Albania, and other regional countries are being destroyed.

“We are seeing a return to nationalist rhetoric and the self-isolation of states. I think this is something very bad for the Balkans and beyond,” Pata concludes.