Pavkovic: The AAK–Nisma coalition is uncertain, other parties to run alone in the elections

Milos Pavkovic, Director of Strategy at the Centre for European Policy in Belgrade, told Kosovo Online that the only question regarding pre-election coalitions ahead of the snap elections in Kosovo is whether the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo and Nisma will run together, as was the case in the February elections.

Regarding the upcoming snap parliamentary elections, Pavkovic says there are four key political actors in Kosovo.

“Besides Self-Determination, there are also the Democratic Party of Kosovo, the Democratic League of Kosovo, and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, which ran in a coalition with Nisma of Fatmir Limaj. When we talk about pre-election coalitions, these four parties will definitely run independently. The only question is whether the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo of Ramush Haradinaj and Nisma of Fatmir Limaj will once again run in a pre-election coalition, as was the case in the February elections. This is uncertain, given that in the meantime there have been frictions within the coalition itself, Nisma has flirted with  Self-Determination, with the possibility of switching sides, etc. On the other hand, if Nisma runs independently, it is unlikely to cross the threshold, so it will probably look for another pre-election partner”, Pavkovic emphasizes.

When it comes to post-election coalitions, this will largely depend on the election results themselves.

“I repeat, the results will be key, and based on them the parties will decide whom they will join in a coalition. If I had to predict something, it seems to me that  Self-Determination has fallen into a negative trend of losing and dispersing votes, and it seems to me that those votes will be taken over primarily by the PDK and the LDK. If that becomes the case, I believe we could be heading toward a coalition, a grand coalition of these opposition parties – the PDK and the LDK, potentially also with the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo. This would be some kind of ‘anti-Kurti’ coalition that could form a government statistically, in theory, but in practice it will likely depend on many other factors”, our interlocutor says.

Asked which coalitions are unrealistic and which alliances could be imagined, Pavkovic says that with the political scene in Kosovo it is very difficult to say that anything is unrealistic.

“In the past we have had very different coalitions. I wouldn’t say that anything is unrealistic. Even a potential coalition of  Self-Determination with one of these opposition parties is possible. That will depend on the election results if  Self-Determination once again achieves a result above 40 percent. They could potentially become an indispensable partner in forming a new government”, Pavkovic concludes.