Radic: Everyone is buying weapons, in the Balkans, any dark scenario is easy to imagine

Military analyst Aleksandar Radic stated for Kosovo Online that the militarization of the Western Balkans should be viewed in the broader context of global rearmament, but also that in this region, "any dark scenario is easy to imagine."

"We have entered an era of wars and armies. What we thought was behind us when the Cold War ended is now once again a value system strongly reflected in politics. Militarization, the idea that a political problem can be resolved through violent means," says Radic.

He recalls that conventional warfare in Europe had not been a popular topic for the last three decades, but then everything changed with the war in Ukraine.

"It was believed that the danger of new wars did not exist in Europe, that the world was now different, that the way the EU and NATO function was strong enough to prevent armed conflicts. And, everything changed on February 24, 2022. New rules came into force, and now in European countries, armies are being strengthened again, battalions that had been disbanded are being reestablished. In the wave of enthusiasm for the image of a peaceful and stable world in the 1990s, many countries are now considering the reintroduction of mandatory military service. Naturally, along with that, new weapons are being purchased," Radic says.

He explains that for the countries of the former Yugoslavia, the acquisition of weapons and military equipment was initially not politically motivated but was driven by the fact that they had resources that were worn out.

"Most of the inherited weapons and military equipment came from the former Yugoslavia. The resources were completely exhausted. The question was whether it was worth investing in overhauls and modernization or if it was better to move on. Serbia was the first to embark on modernization due to the necessity of replacing old equipment. And somehow, on that wave, and with a significant dramatic shift in global politics in the meantime, now in other countries, the question is no longer why—but when and how much. Money is being spent. Everyone is in the process of modernization, everyone is trying to find as much new equipment as possible for their military," Radic explains.

He adds that despite most Western Balkan countries being NATO members, in practice, each of them balances their military forces in relation to Serbia.

"In the Balkans, most countries are NATO members, and within that process, they should share tasks and have security guarantees. Then comes the 'big but.' The truth is, which no one from these countries will admit, that they always look toward the Serbs, the Serbian issue, as a factor relevant to balancing their military forces with Serbia. It is a politically incorrect view; it is politically incorrect to talk about it, but it is clear that if Croatia decides to move a battalion from Nasice to Beli Manastir and that battalion is equipped with American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, that is a message to Serbia," says Radic.

He adds that there are also many belligerent statements in Serbia, but that the countries of the region, especially those in NATO, still view rearmament through the lens of "strengthening the idea of protecting national interests."

"NATO is a factor that actually acts supranationally and, at least in the current situation, helps to calm things down, but the fact is that every country of the former Yugoslavia will strive to be as strong as possible militarily, and the public opinion in those countries tends to have a favorite topic—comparing 'who is stronger,'" Radic emphasizes.

When asked whether the militarization of the Western Balkans should be a cause for concern, he points out that the key problem is that the wars from the 1990s have not yet been fully resolved.

"The Balkans are unstable, and nothing new has happened in the region where the wars of the 1990s have not been concluded. We do not have stable democratic countries; there is a slide toward autocracy, a radical slide. In such an environment, any dark scenario is easy to imagine," Radic concludes.