Radic: Spain would not allow a precedent, Kosovo is far from NATO membership

Military analyst Aleksandar Radic assesses that despite announcements and references to the possibility of a precedent, there is no chance that Kosovo will join NATO in the near future, because it would be paradoxical for Kosovo to join the Alliance before Serbia, and many member states, including Spain, would not allow such a possibility.

He is skeptical that NATO would apply special procedures in Kosovo's case.

"Procedures are, of course, a matter of agreement, but so far, it has been a taboo for NATO. The consensus of all countries is crucial because NATO was created in a different era that functioned differently. NATO is not a supranational organization. It consists of 32 states, including Sweden. All of these are sovereign countries with their own foreign policies and armed forces. The consensus of all these countries is a taboo that NATO will not cross. How can we expect Kosovo to join NATO if one of the most important members, Spain, has not recognized Kosovo's independence? That is an obstacle that cannot be overcome," Radic says.

He points out that Kosovo expresses a clear ambition to be part of NATO, but there are two key obstacles.

The first is that the Alliance, without special exceptions, does not admit countries with unresolved territorial issues, and the second is that it would be paradoxical to expect Kosovo to join NATO before Serbia.

"For years, Serbia has been at NATO's doorstep, although it does not knock on those doors because it does not want membership. Therefore, the formula used by Western powers is that Serbian military neutrality does not imply passivity in communication with NATO. Serbia cooperates and has relaxed relations with NATO. The incident in Banjska somewhat disturbed this, but it is still clear that the focus of cooperation by Serbian authorities is directed towards NATO when it comes to the defense domain. There is political and military-technical cooperation, the Serbian defense industry relies on technologies from NATO member countries, and it would be quite paradoxical to expect Kosovo to join NATO before Serbia," Radic asserts.

Asked if a "special exception" for Kosovo could be a model for Ukraine's NATO accession, Radic says it is unrealistic because Ukraine is a "topic for itself" compared to the Kosovo issue due to its significance.

"Regardless of our emotions, Kosovo is still a Balkan problem, a problem of the former Yugoslavia's space, not a global problem. In such a situation, I do not believe that NATO is willing to toy with the interests of individual members who do not want to recognize and accept Kosovo for their political reasons," Radic says.

He adds that these reasons do not automatically imply a friendly position towards Serbia.

"These are not reasons that automatically imply friendliness towards the Serbian side, they are simply pragmatic reasons that do not want to support any form of separatism, protecting the interest of preserving their own integrity," Radic assesses.

Asked what Kosovo's potential NATO accession would mean for Serbia, the military analyst emphasizes that it would lead to additional and radical isolation.

"That would not only be a thorn in the side but also an open threat to Serbia in the current situation. However, I think we are far from such a scenario due to the open cooperation that the current authorities have with NATO," Radic concludes.