Savkovic: Everyone wants an alliance with Ankara, but its EU membership is not realistic

Senior advisor at the ISAC Fund, Marko Savkovic, stated that due to the war in Ukraine, "everyone wants an alliance with Turkey," which is why official Ankara "feels strong enough" to raise the issue of joining the European Union. However, he said that such membership is currently not realistic.

"Turkey feels strong enough to bring up the issue. In light of recent developments around the war in Ukraine, it has once again come to the forefront as a powerful player, a player whose alliance is practically sought by all sides in the conflict," Savkovic told Kosovo Online.

He reminds that after participating in several important European meetings where further military aid to Ukraine was discussed, including the potential deployment of troops, Turkey felt it was the "moment" to request EU membership.

"So, this is the moment in which Turkey feels it can do that. On the other hand, it's strange because Turkey is simultaneously facing an internal political crisis caused by the arrest of the mayor of Istanbul, and it’s hard for me to understand that, since the EU, or certain EU member states, already have difficulty accepting Turkey as it is, with the system of government it currently has," Savkovic said.

Commenting on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's statement that the EU would strengthen its military power and security by admitting Turkey, Savkovic said it was a contradictory statement coming "from a position of relative strength."

"I don't believe that Turkey’s membership, which has been frozen for more than 20 years, is realistic," the analyst emphasized.

He explains that from an economic standpoint, cooperation between Turkey and the EU is already at a high level and that membership would likely enhance it.

Nevertheless, he expresses reservations regarding security and defense.

"Turkey's membership, assuming there is a relationship of trust and shared values, would strengthen European security. It would help Western Europe address the migrant crisis. But on the other hand, it would raise questions, such as Turkey’s role in Syria. Europe would, in a sense, be more secure, but also more exposed," Savkovic noted.

He adds that Turkey is an important player and a regional power with "wide-ranging interests," which allows it to have a "relationship with the EU that resembles a relationship of equals."
At the same time, he believes Turkey will continue to be an important factor in the Western Balkans.

"Turkey remains significant for this region regardless of potential EU membership. It will have a relationship with the EU, it will have influence here on certain outcomes and will be consulted, so that doesn’t change much in terms of its already solid position," the analyst believes.

He emphasizes that Turkey would need to undergo "many changes" in order to join the European Union.

"Security and defense are not the only dimensions considered. Internal governance, the state of democracy, and human rights are also taken into account. Especially now, there is a focus on whether the country seeking accession shares the EU's values. It may sound abstract, but it is a key question: does the country share the values of the group of nations currently supporting Ukraine and in conflict with Russia? Turkey does not. Additionally, it has a serious internal problem, a developing crisis, and we’ll see how it evolves," Savkovic concluded.