Vukadinovic: Possible short-term alliances out of necessity, but Turkey will not be part of the EU

The claim by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the European Union would become safer with Turkey as a member is an attempt to appease the pro-European public and does not appear to be a realistic option, however, “short-term alliances out of necessity” between Ankara and Brussels are possible, historian Igor Vukadinovic believes.

“Despite Erdogan’s statements, full EU membership for Turkey does not seem like a realistic option due to the large number of objective obstacles on that path. However, a temporary alliance out of necessity is possible, in which both sides could achieve short-term goals: for the EU bureaucracy, this would be a matter of foreign policy; for the regime in Turkey, internal consolidation,” Vukadinovic told Kosovo Online.

He believes that Erdogan’s talk of EU membership is part of a “geopolitical calculation.”

“Although Erdogan’s remarks about Turkey joining the EU are most likely aimed at daily politics and at pacifying the pro-European segment of the Turkish public, they also reflect geopolitical calculations in light of the tectonic shifts taking place globally. The actions of the Trump administration have largely undermined the previous concept of the European Union as a periphery of the American empire, dutifully following orders from Washington. This has caused an identity crisis and political turbulence among the member states of the Union,” Vukadinovic emphasized.

A warming between Ankara and Brussels

He does not rule out the possibility of Ankara and Brussels moving closer, citing reasons not only in Turkey’s internal issues but also within the EU itself.

“There is a clear crisis of semi-authoritarian regimes, such as Erdogan’s in Turkey, which are under increasing pressure from mass protests and civil disobedience. Today, no political actor in Europe or North America is entirely at ease. Therefore, one cannot rule out the possibility that in the reconfiguration of global political alliances, Ankara and Brussels may move closer,” the historian believes.

Turkey, as a regional power with significant human and economic resources, would undoubtedly contribute to strengthening the EU's global standing, but at the same time, would fundamentally alter its existing identity and internal structure. As for potential benefits to Turkey, it is difficult to determine whether such a move would bring more harm or good. EU membership could possibly strengthen Turkey’s position in the Caucasus and the Middle East. On the other hand, aligning with European bureaucracy and regulations has generally had a negative impact on the economic development of both member states and candidate countries.

Balkan actors

Regarding the interest of Balkan political actors in Turkey’s EU membership, Vukadinovic says it is clear that it is strongest within the Albanian and Bosniak political establishments.

“As traditional allies of Turkey, who in past decades have been proteges of Brussels and the American deep state, Edi Rama and Bosniak politicians are now concerned about the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s foreign policy. However, there is a significant difference. While Rama is primarily interested in foreign support to maintain his personal power in Albania, Bosniak political elites hope that, with external help, they will be able to achieve the goal of abolishing Republika Srpska and taking over its territory. The announced arrest of the president of RS is the most significant point in the execution of this operation,” Vukadinovic concludes.