Atanasovski: The greatest strength of Western Balkan armies lies in manpower

Analyst Blagojce Atanasovski told Kosovo Online that the greatest strength of Western Balkan armies does not lie in modern weaponry, but in manpower, while the reasons for increased investment in the military are found both in global crises and in persistent mistrust among the states of the region.

Atanasovski believes that military power rankings can serve as a guideline for assessing the capacities of states, especially in the Western Balkans and the area of the former Yugoslavia.

“Absolutely, rankings show us what kind of military capacities each state has, especially when we talk about Western Balkan countries and the wider area of the former Yugoslavia. Factors taken into account include the size of the state, population, security environment, and military history. Serbia in particular, as a militarily neutral state that is not a NATO member, has experience of wars from the recent past. The same applies to Croatia, even though it is a member of NATO and the European Union. Each state assesses how militarily prepared it needs to be at a given political and geopolitical moment, and these rankings mostly show what type of armament and how much military power a country possesses,” Atanasovski says.

Speaking about the advantages and weaknesses of military systems in the region, Atanasovski stresses that manpower is the key pillar.

“Definitely the greatest strength is the active and reserve forces. These are Balkan states that do not have the super-sophisticated weapons possessed by major powers such as the United States, Russia, Israel, France, the United Kingdom, or China. These are states that in the 21st century can wage war exclusively with the help of highly developed and hypersonic weapons. From that point of view, Balkan states are not so technologically advanced. That is why I believe their greatest advantage is precisely manpower, while there is room for improvement in the modernization of military capacities,” he notes.

Asked why Western Balkan countries have invested more in armaments in recent years, Atanasovski believes the reasons are both external and internal.

“Probably because of both factors. The world is at a geopolitical turning point – we have the war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and potential new flashpoints. This shows political elites in the Balkans, in Europe, and in the world that they need to organize militarily on their own. The question is also being raised as to whether alliances such as NATO will be able in the future to function as a system of collective security for all members. On the other hand, there are internal circumstances – we know that Western Balkan countries fought each other in the recent past. Mistrust among neighbors still exists, and the wounds of the 1990s are still fresh in the generations living today. Each political elite still looks at its neighbor with a certain degree of distrust,” Atanasovski explains.

Asked whether there is currently a real military threat in the region, Atanasovski firmly rejects that idea.

“I absolutely believe that there is no real military threat. The period from 30 to 35 years ago, when the area of the former Yugoslavia saw a bloody breakup and wars fought by both paramilitary groups and regular armies, belongs to the past. Most Western Balkan countries today are NATO members, which guarantees both internal and external stability and prevents wars with neighbors. Individual incidents that could disrupt the political or security situation in a particular country are possible, but a large-scale war between two neighboring states, with the involvement of a third party – I absolutely rule out such a possibility,” Atanasovski concludes.