Is the time working in favor of Serbia - a difficult year is coming in solving the Kosovo issue

Almost from the very beginning of the war conflict in Ukraine, the dynamics of resolving the Kosovo issue gained momentum. If perhaps, it seemed that the West, preoccupied with the events in Eastern Europe, would "forget" about the Kosovo issue, at least for a while, the exact opposite happened - Western countries now more than ever need a solution to the "Kosovo knot".

Last year, the relations between Serbia and Kosovo, were a sign of tension on the ground, almost on the verge of physical conflict, due to the unilateral moves of Pristina, which remains consistent in its attempts to "discipline" the north of Kosovo by attacking the Serbs, and not to form the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities provided by the Brussels Agreement in 2013.

However, the beginning of this year was marked by the Franco-German, now European proposal for the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo. Both sides expressed their willingness to accept it as a basis for negotiations, but with significantly different visions of the final solution.

The Franco-German proposal is only the last in a series of similar documents put before Belgrade and Pristina, but it seems that this "paper" is accompanied by the will of the West, stronger than ever, to bring about a final solution.

President Aleksandar Vucic himself, at the recent session of the parliament, pointed out that the circumstances were not in Serbia's favor, and that the termination of negotiations would only mean additional problems for the country. He said that Serbia would discuss even the worst papers because it had to preserve the peace.

He repeated the position that a "frozen conflict" was the most dangerous because someone could always "unfreeze" it, but there had also been suggestions from the opposition to reject the plan, stop the negotiations, and postpone the solution of that most important national issue, in anticipation of changes to the geopolitical map.

Time will tell whether the Franco-German proposal is the most difficult for Serbia so far; whether it can be "improved" for the Serbian side through negotiations, or whether each subsequent version of the agreement will only be worse.

Certainly, the Franco-German, that is, the European proposal, does not contain the mutual recognition that Pristina and certain European countries, as well as the US, had previously insisted on, and which Belgrade has always opposed.

Analysts' views on whether the time in the case of Kosovo works in favor of Serbia are conflicting, but they agree on one thing - this will be a difficult year for both Belgrade and Pristina.

Coordinator of the Working Group of the National Convention on the EU for Chapter 35, Dragisa Mijacic, tells Kosovo Online that time is a limiting factor because it is expected that an agreement will be reached by the end of this year or the beginning of next year, and the pressure will be increasing.

But, he notes, in order to reach an agreement, "one trajectory" must be respected, which means that the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities must first be formed, that the Serbs must return to the institutions and that there must be security in the north.

"Only in those circumstances can an agreement be reached, but even in those circumstances we have to have a social consensus in order to accept the agreement. You can already see how complex this process is and how difficult it will be in both Belgrade and Pristina in order to reach an agreement," Mijacic said.

When asked whether each subsequent offer for Serbia was necessarily worse, Mijacic said that everything depended on what Serbia wanted, in order to determine whether something was better or worse.

"This plan provides a framework that destroys some myths in Serbia, Serbia is required to recognize the legal subjectivity of Kosovo... It is certainly a 'big concession' from the Serbian side, and in some future agreements, I do not believe that Serbia can be asked for less, bearing in mind they see that the countries leading the negotiations have recognized Kosovo. They will put pressure on Serbia, and I believe that any subsequent agreement will certainly not be favorable or more favorable," Mijacic said.

He also points out that at this moment it would be best, as President Vucic said, to talk.

"With various political actors, parties, with the Serbian Orthodox Church, SANU, civil society organizations... We have to talk, to come up with a proposal that will be at least acceptable to society itself. We also have to share the responsibility, not only the holders of power, but the whole society," Mijacic said.

On the other hand, the research associate of the Institute for International Politics and Economy, Aleksandar Mitic, tells Kosovo Online that time is not necessarily a limiting factor, because, as he points out, he does not see what kind of pressure is "pushing" Serbia so much that it now has to solve an issue that is not solved for so long, even in different and more difficult circumstances.

"I do not agree with the policy of the West, according to which it is urgent, necessary to solve the issue of status now. These are artificial deadlines that are caused by the geopolitical situation and the desire of the West to legitimize and legalize the 'sui generis' case of Kosovo. There is no need for Serbia to rush," Mitic believes.

He reminds that there was constant talk about certain deadlines - while Catherine Ashton is in office, then while Federica Mogherini is there, and now until the end of Lajcak's mandate...

"In these geopolitical circumstances, we should not enter into any process, which of course does not mean that there will not be even more drastic pressures and threats, but we should not enter into a process in which we shoot ourselves in the foot," he added.

He is of the opinion that the problem with the negotiations is that "they are not real negotiations", because the mediators are biased.

"As in the case of Ahtisaari's negotiations in the Vienna process, the mediator was under the direct influence of Washington and Brussels. And the plan was made in these two capital cities, with the aim of Serbia in one way or another writing off Kosovo. When Ahtisaari's plan was rejected, Brussels and Washington agreed with the Albanians on the declaration of independence," Mitic says.

And in the Brussels negotiations, he adds, it was shown that the EU is not ready to pressure the Kosovo Albanians to fulfill what was agreed upon, stating that the commitments from nine years ago and the current process should be separated and that the CSM cannot be ”bait" for entering into further negotiations. rather, it is an obligation that must be fulfilled.