Alarming Demographic Data: Depopulation of the Western Balkans

For demographers, the "red light" has long been on: an increasing number of elderly, fewer babies, and more young people leaving for better opportunities. According to experts from Tirana to Belgrade interviewed by Kosovo Online, the disheartening results of the recent census in Kosovo represent a "trend" that can easily be projected onto other parts of the Western Balkans.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

"Kosovo is rapidly declining due to decreasing birth rates and migration. These two negative factors are causing a faster decline than expected. In the long term, the survival of Kosovo is at risk," said Avni Kastrati, acting director of the Agency for Statistics.

That this is an alarming trend not only for Kosovo but also for the entire Western Balkans is shown by many European studies.

In a study by the Czech Statistical Office, with a rate of 0.1 percent, this country had the gloomiest record for the lowest population growth in the world in 2023.

However, Albania and North Macedonia are among the five countries with the lowest population growth in the world on this list.

According to the results of the 2023 census, Albania lost about 400,000 inhabitants over 12 years.

The 2023 census results indicate that due to negative natural increase and high emigration rates, Albania is one of the fastest shrinking populations in the world.

The website of the Albanian government's statistical agency states that the number of births in this country peaked in 1990 and has been declining every year since, affected by the negative natural increase and the white plague that has hit Albania over the past 30 years.

Emigration is another major problem, particularly affecting the most potent and productive segment of the population, i.e., the millennial generation, which accounts for more than half of the emigrants, comparing the population census results of 2011 and 2023.

The situation is no better in Montenegro.

In October, the Administration for Statistics (Monstat) announced that the average age of the population was 39.7 years, which is two and a half years older than in the previous census.

European Trends

Marija Marsenic, a sociologist from the Institute for European Studies, believes that Kosovo follows the European trend of depopulation.

"We are witnessing a depopulation trend, not only in so-called Kosovo but throughout Europe. It is a general trend," Marsenic emphasized in an interview with Kosovo Online.

The key reasons are the poor economic situation, low living standards, and the main "trigger" for young people - uncertainty.

"One of the main problems and causes of the demographic landscape in so-called Kosovo being this way is certainly migrations, or rather the large departure of young, working, capable population from this territory. These emigrations are most often caused by economic factors, a low level of living standards, a high rate of unemployment, and generally significant economic difficulties. But another very important factor causing young people to leave this territory is the extremely poor and uncertain security. Thus, there is a general state of uncertainty in this territory, and that is why young people are massively emigrating," says Marsenic in the conversation with Kosovo Online. Commenting on the data that the number of people over 65 in Kosovo has doubled compared to the previous census, this expert emphasizes that this fact carries certain consequences.

"The biggest of these consequences are certainly economic. We will see that there will be significant pressures on pension funds and health systems in the coming period. Also, this large departure of young, working-capable population will affect the labor shortage in the labor market," Marsenic believes.

She adds that the departure of highly qualified workforce, such as doctors, engineers, and scientists will cause not only a shortage of skilled personnel.

"There will also be a lack of investment and development, and thereby a general decline in the level of life quality and living standards," this expert warns.

Commenting on the recently published results of the population census in Kosovo, Marsenic says that they have shown a loss of almost 200,000 inhabitants.

"That's an entire city like Pristina," she specifies.

With depopulation, in Kosovo, there is also a growing proportion of older population which has doubled compared to the 2011 census.

"The reasons for this are various. They can be economic, political, social, and cultural factors," Marsenic emphasizes.

She explains that this trend is contributed by extended life expectancy and decreased mortality rates, which are the results of medical advancements and greater access to health care.

She points out that the decline in birth rate is influenced by the participation of women in the labor market and the prolongation of education.

Population Exodus

Economic expert from Pristina, Mustafa Kadriaj also believes that the census results in Kosovo have expectedly shown a trend of population exodus to the West, but that it is not solely due to economic factors.

"The results announced by the Kosovo Statistics Agency were expected because the exodus of the population to the West was not only due to the economic situation," says Kadriaj for Kosovo Online.

Natural increase is not linked to economic reasons, and the causes of population growth can vary.

"Lower natural increase is generally associated with emancipated segments of society, or the educated class," explains the expert.

He emphasizes that, according to census results, the Ashkali as a minority community have recorded growth. However, he warns that they face a serious challenge in Kosovo.

"Unfortunately, this population does not have healthcare," Kadraj points out.

He highlights this issue as crucial for Kosovo.

"The goal is quality health for the population, not just its growth, whether it's about the Albanian majority or for minorities, including the Serbian one. There must be health insurance and optimal health service so that citizens can live healthily. Population growth should not suffer due to a lack of health services," Kadriaj concludes.

Migration Balance

The demographic data from Kosovo are concerning, confirms Petar Vasic, a professor at the Faculty of Geography in Belgrade.

He points out that despite high natural increase, Kosovo is experiencing a population decline on the scale of an exodus.

This is substantiated by the data that the negative migration balance amounts to 340,000 people.

"The population of Kosovo and Metohija has decreased by about 140,000 over these 13 years from 2011 - 2024. It now stands at just over 1,600,000. However, naturally, the population is still increasing. That is, the number of births is still greater than the number of deaths, and through natural increase, the population of Kosovo has a surplus of 200,000 for these 13 years. However, considering the total reduction in population, this points to a negative migration balance of minus 340,000 inhabitants, which are practically the dimensions of an exodus," Vasic emphasizes for Kosovo Online. He explains that the rate of negative migration balance in Kosovo, on an annual level, is greater than 15 per thousand.

"For comparison, in the rest of Serbia: central Serbia and Vojvodina, this rate of negative migration balance amounts to about two per thousand per year," Vasic points out.

This demographer underscores economic reasons and family reunification as two key causes of pronounced migration.

"However, fundamentally, it is an economic reason in both cases because when a population has been migrating for decades to certain foreign countries, then kinship networks, or migration networks, are formed, making migration easier for all those who wish to leave Kosovo and Metohija afterward," this demographer states.

Asked to comment on the much smaller number of Serbs in Kosovo than expected, specifically just above two percent of citizens who declared themselves of the Orthodox faith, this expert believes that there is no direct correlation and that the number of Serbs is underestimated.

"I think there isn't a straightforward connection between the number of Orthodox believers and the number of Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija. I would say that their estimate has significantly underestimated the number of Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija," Vasic believes.

The analysis of statistical data from World War II to the present provides an explanation for the ethnic composition shift between the Albanian and Serbian populations in Kosovo.

"After World War II, Serbian and Albanian women in Kosovo and Metohija were having approximately the same number of children, about six children per woman. Afterward, Serbian women began a fertility transition, i.e., this average number of children decreased, while Albanian women remained at the same level, which even rose to seven by the eighties, while Serbian women reduced to three. If this disparity in birth rates persists over decades, then an ethnic structure re-composition occurs, which has indeed happened in Kosovo and Metohija," analyzes Vasic.

He points to another phenomenon.

"At this moment, the Serbian nationality population in Kosovo and Metohija records significantly higher birth rates compared to the Serbian population in the rest of our country. Essentially, this is not so surprising when a population in a status of immediate threat reacts in such a way concerning birth rates," emphasizes Vasic.

Depopulation in North Macedonia

Demographic issues are not only a concern for Kosovo, as explained by experts from the region to Kosovo Online.

Donco Gerasimovski, the former director of the State Statistical Office of North Macedonia and a demographic analyst, assesses that the country has seen a drastic decrease in birth rates over the last decade, as well as a population drain, necessitating an urgent strategy to halt this process.

"For about ten years, the birth rate in our country has been declining. For instance, ten years ago it was around 27,000, now it's somewhere around 16,000. This means that there is a drastic reduction in birth rates. If you also look at the annual figures, on average, about 700 fewer children are born each year," says Gerasimovski for Kosovo Online.

He cites two key reasons: the first is that couples are increasingly deciding against having more children, and the second is the process of emigration.

"This concerns the reproductive population, the young population from whom marriage is expected," the expert highlights, adding that the number of children born abroad is increasing and now amounts to about 6,000.

"In some municipalities and regions, we have a higher number of live births and higher birth rates than in the country itself," emphasizes Gerasimovski.

This demographer explains that the increasing rate of population departure from North Macedonia is conditioned by living conditions, as well as socio-economic status, education, and a series of other reasons that can be described as "seeking a better life."

He warns that of the eight regions and 60 municipalities in North Macedonia, seven have recorded a negative natural increase.

"Out of eight regions, seven have reduced birth rates, that is, they are experiencing a negative natural increase. In 60 municipalities, we have a negative natural increase, meaning the number of live births is smaller compared to the number of deaths," specifies Gerasimovski.

He adds that similar data applies to the Western Balkans.

"In neighboring countries, like Bulgaria, this phenomenon is even more characteristic. In Serbia, we have a situation where the birth rate is higher each year by either 0, 1, or one percent compared to previous years. Similar occurrences are also in Kosovo and Montenegro. In all countries, demographic processes are poor," he emphasizes.

The solution for North Macedonia, he sees, lies in the creation of a serious demographic strategy.

"Forming a coordination body within the competent state institutions to develop a serious, expert, and professional strategy for the coming period is just the first step. The second is the engagement of professionals regardless of their religious, ethnic, or party affiliations. We need people who understand these phenomena and problems well because so far, several such strategies have been developed that have not been fruitful. However, there are proposals and measures that can help, especially in terms of keeping young people in the country, from improving living conditions, better study conditions, securing jobs, and housing... Otherwise, it will not be good. Of 1,769 populated places, 205 are deserted. In 300 populated places, there are about ten inhabitants each. Consider that, especially when it comes to rural, rural environments, one-quarter will remain empty," warns Gerasimovski.

Long-Term Consequences

Albania is often highlighted in many European studies as having the ignoble record for low birth rates.

Zihbi Dervishi, a professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Tirana, states in an interview with Kosovo Online that the decline in birth rates - fertility is one of the most serious issues facing the state today.

"I get the impression that even the figures cited by the Albanian Institute of Statistics (Instat) are not accurate. The fertility rate in Albania should be lower than what Instat reports, as it does not include many people who do not live in Albania but are Albanians. The decline in fertility is one of the most serious problems our society is facing," declared Dervishi for Kosovo Online. He warns that there are two crucial factors which, if unchanged, could completely alter Albania's demographic landscape in 50 to 60 years.

The first is the dramatic degree of population emigration, and the second is the indecisiveness of married couples to have children.

"This will bring problems that we as a society will feel in five to six decades," he emphasizes.

He sees the reasons for the declining birth rate primarily in the general uncertainty, especially among the young population who are afraid of having offspring.

"There is no job security and normal life. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures to make young people, future mothers, and fathers, feel more secure. Also, the state needs to invest in a system to insure children and mothers in case of divorce or the death of a spouse. Secondly, it is necessary to create a spirit, an awareness among people that having children is very important for the well-being not only of society but also of mothers. Mothers who have two or more children are healthier, live longer, and avoid a series of diseases," Dervishi stresses.

This expert also warns that the decision of young couples to delay having children is no lesser problem.

"Young people who plan to leave the country consciously delay marriages and having children, not realizing that the more it is postponed, the greater the risk of having children with physical and mental impairments," Dervishi points out.

He warns that this is a phenomenon related to young women who believe that such a problem could produce catastrophic consequences for their further life, which is why they decide against having children.

"However, this situation can change and improve if economic and social measures are taken. Here I mean giving priority to employing young people, but also enabling young married couples to acquire apartments owned by municipalities that are not very expensive. Thus, state investment in housing is necessary so that young people are not burdened with financial costs," Dervishi believes.