The anniversary of the beginning of the unsuccessful negotiations in Rambouillet - would "Rambuillet 2" bring a result?

On this day in 1999, the peace conference on resolving the crisis in Kosovo began in the Rambouillet castle in France. Delegations of Serbia and Kosovo Albanians, along with international representatives, negotiated without success for 17 days. Despite such an outcome, and especially due to the slow progress in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina under the auspices of the European Union, there was an opinion that to reach a final agreement, the solution would be to organize an international conference.

A member of the Serbian delegation at the negotiations in Rambouillet in 1999, Nikola Sainovic told Kosovo Online that everyone would like a peace conference that would take into account the interests of all nations and people living in Kosovo and that would reach a just solution. However, due to the current geopolitical situation, he did not see that a "good conference" was currently possible.

"Any solution that is not just - is not permanent and does not ensure peace. For 23 years, we have had no war, but also no peace. What we all want does not depend on the goodwill and intellectual abilities to come up with a solution, but, unfortunately, on the balance of forces affecting this region. At the time of Rambouillet in 1999, we had America as an absolutely dominant power, and then, unfortunately, such a result came from that might and power," Sainovic says.

In the last ten years, as he indicates, the situation was more favorable. It appears that Russia and China have returned to the political scene to a much greater extent and a balance was created in which Serbia could affirm its policy and put the Kosovo issue back on the agenda even though the West thought it was over.

"But now we have a war between Russia and NATO and now the geopolitical situation is different. On the one hand, Russia is burdened by its own conflict, and on the other, NATO is trying to completely reset its territory, that is, to bring the entire west under NATO control. Not only us but big neutral countries like Sweden and Finland. And to force Germany into absolute obedience. So I don't see any good conference possible at the moment. The possibility is bad", Sainovic says.

The former minister in the Government of Serbia Rasim Ljajic, let's recall, at one time was in favor of a kind of "Dayton" for Kosovo, at which a status solution would be sought, also Dragoljub Micunovic, former president of the Democratic Party, believed that the only possible solution to the Kosovo issue had been organizing international conferences.

On the other hand, the president of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, Ramush Haradinaj, is on the trail of the idea of a new summit, but he only mentions America in that context. Namely, his proposal is to hold a multi-day summit in America until the conclusion of the Kosovo-Serbia agreement, which, from his point of view, should end with recognition.

Analyst Mazllum Baraliu tells Kosovo Online that Rambouillet is over and that repeating such a conference is unnecessary, because, as he says, the circumstances are different now.

"The conference was unsuccessful, it lasted too long and had no epilogue because the representatives of Serbia did not accept the conclusions of that conference. In the meantime, Kosovo declared independence, and now it is an independent country, developed, and is recognized by 117 countries of the world. There is no reason, and it makes no sense for the giants of the power centers to go back. No one from the Kosovo side would accept that, not even the countries that supported Kosovo's independence," Baraliu believes.

He believes that the Franco-German proposal does not represent "Rambouillet 2".

"Based on what we are familiar with as public opinion, there is much in the proposal that was not at the core of the Rambouillet conference. It is neither a coincidence nor a similarity. At that time, it was an agreement between one entity, that is, two parts of one state. Now it is a problem between two countries of different ethnicities. A lot of things in the Franco-German proposal do not coincide with the Rambouillet conference", Baraliu concluded.

Analyst Fadil Lepaja has a similar opinion.

When asked which of the foreign factors could participate in the eventual peace conference, Lepaja says that there is absolutely no possibility that Russia and Turkey will be part of it.

"I do not believe that there will be a peace conference, and even less the possibility that Russia and Turkey will participate in it. The situation is not the same now as it was then, nor is the goal to establish a new balance with Russia through Serbia and Kosovo," Lepaja said.

Provided that Russia and Ukraine resolve their conflict in the foreseeable future so that the conference on the subject of Kosovo becomes feasible, Sainovic says that it would be normal for its participants to be permanent members of the Security Council.

"They also participated in Dayton, and to what extent - that is now another question. If you don't invite all interested parties to such a conference, then one side always has the right to say 'I didn't agree even then,'" he points out.

Clarifying what preparations for international conferences look like, Sainovic says that before Dayton, its framework was worked on for a year and that he was not in public at all.

"Rambouillet also had a framework and that was the position of the Contact Group which was favorable and which, among other things, stated that the sovereignty of Yugoslavia should be respected. We also went to Rambouillet with that framework, and then the powers, except for Russia, started presenting their documents. Russia said at the meeting that it had not been a Contact Group document because they had not seen it. But, a great power turned it into further pressure, and Yeltsin's Russia was passive at the time and they did not sign the document. That's all they could do back then. And the American threat turned into the bombing," Sainovic recalls.