The Berlin Process - a red card for Kosovo or just a warning

On the eve of the tenth anniversary of the Berlin Process and the upcoming summit on October 14 in Berlin, Kosovo, one of the six participants from the Western Balkans, faces warnings that it might be excluded from the benefits offered by this initiative. Had the "threats" of a red card not come from Germany, the issue in Pristina might not have caused such a stir. Analysts note that the Kosovan government is now viewed as a spoiler, and the "six minus one" scenario is considered tragic.

Written by: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

Germany's Special Envoy for the Western Balkans, Manuel Sarrazin, visited Pristina twice within eight days, and after the second visit, he announced that discussions on a free common market agreement could continue without Kosovo. This followed Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s negative response to the proposed solutions.

In an interview with Koha, Sarrazin explained that he had pressed Kosovo to lift its blockade on Serbian goods to restore free trade in the region. He also suggested that Kosovo could be represented in CEFTA with an asterisk, rather than under the UNMIK framework. According to Sarrazin, the asterisk could be removed with the implementation of the Ohrid Agreement. However, the Kosovo government’s issue, as Sarrazin claims, isn't representation with the asterisk in CEFTA, but rather lifting the ban on Serbian imports.

“The government agrees to the asterisk. But it disagrees on the other part—restoring free trade with Kosovo. They argue they have security reasons for this. Over the past few months, we have engaged intensively in discussions with Kosovo's leadership to recognize Kosovo's security concerns, putting forward serious security commitments from Germany and other partners at Kosovo’s border. We discussed implementing X-ray equipment and similar measures, but we couldn’t reach an agreement. We won’t stop just because Kosovo is blocking,” Sarrazin stated, mentioning the "six minus one" formula in this context.

The words of the German envoy were interpreted differently in Pristina.

Kosovo's Parliamentary Speaker, Glauk Konjufca, stated that he doesn't expect Kosovo to be excluded from the Berlin Process at the summit on October 14, as the process isn’t solely about CEFTA. Meanwhile, Kosovo’s President, Vjosa Osmani, acknowledged there is a threat of Kosovo being excluded from the Berlin Process.

"I see this as a very small difference that should not result in Kosovo’s exclusion from the Berlin Process. The threat exists, but anyone negotiating on behalf of the Republic must insist on new proposals,” she said, adding that she would work to convince Germany not to exclude Kosovo.

Let us recall that Kosovo’s government imposed the ban on Serbian imports on June 14 of last year.

Analyst Artan Muhaxhiri told Kosovo Online that Sarrazin’s warning must be treated as an ultimatum, and the Kosovo government must urgently address it, as it would be tragic if Kosovo were left out of the Berlin Process.

According to Muhaxhiri, Sarrazin has shown himself to be an ally of Kosovo, with a friendly and positive attitude towards its institutions and leaders. For this reason, his words must be treated as an ultimatum, as they follow a long period of non-public discussions.

"If such harsh words come from a politician like Sarrazin, then the Kosovo government must urgently address the issue, as they signal that work on the ground related to European integration is becoming increasingly narrow, and there is a real risk that Kosovo could be bypassed in major projects. If this happens with the Berlin Process, it would be tragic because it is absolutely the best way for Kosovo to advance in European integration. If this process stops, it would be the worst possible news for Kosovo, with significant negative consequences in the future. Processes like this have inertia, and if disrupted, it would take much energy to return to our current position. This is absolutely unnecessary," Muhaxhiri stated.

He believes that Prime Minister Kurti is obliged to try to find a diplomatic solution to this issue, as if the warning from Sarrazin comes true, Kosovo’s relations with key allies, who make important decisions within the EU and regarding European integration processes, will deteriorate.

Muhaxhiri argues that statements like Sarrazin's certainly place great pressure on Kurti, both externally and internally, but that it is solely up to Kurti whether or not he will relent.

“Public opinion in Kosovo has extensively debated these ultimatums, but everything depends on Prime Minister Kurti, on his political agenda, identity, and ideology, and on how willing he is to make compromises. I believe it is a major mistake that Prime Minister Kurti views compromises as entirely negative. When you are in politics and lead a country, you must make compromises to gain advantages in other areas. If harsh words come from a friendly politician like Sarrazin, one can only imagine what other politicians, who are not as friendly, might think or discuss. This is Kurti’s last chance to reconsider his policies and approach, as this current stance will only lead to greater problems in the future,” Muhaxhiri emphasizes.

Analyst Frok Çupi from Tirana told our portal that, ahead of the new Berlin Process summit, the stance of Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti has created significant tension. As a result, there have been signals from Germany that the summit might proceed under the "six minus one" formula, meaning that Kosovo may not participate. This, according to Çupi, would cause great harm not only to Kosovo but also to the European project in the Balkans.

Kurti's stance, as Çupi assesses, is also damaging relations between Kosovo and Albania.

"Kurti disagrees with the peaceful positions of the Albanian government. He is against cooperation in the Balkans and opposes the stance of the Albanian government, which is a very strong ally of the U.S. and the EU. It seems there will be a major debate over whether the Kosovo government will accept the Western and pro-American alternative or seek other paths", Çupi states.

Petar Curcic, a researcher at the Institute for European Studies, also believes that the message from the German envoy should be taken seriously. He suggests that Germany is expected to be the one to rein in Kurti and deescalate the high tensions created by his government.

He adds that this has happened over the past several years during various crisis situations, but from a broader perspective, it does not change Berlin’s overall position toward Kosovo.

"On the contrary, it will remain the same as it has been. We should not forget that, on one hand, Germany is one of the main sponsors of Kosovo's independence, but on the other hand, Berlin is expected to regain its political instruments of influence through economic means. Why is exclusion from the Berlin Process being mentioned? Because it is a type of political-economic lever of power used to influence Southeast European countries. This instrument is very important," Curcic told Kosovo Online.

However, he points out that it is uncertain whether these warnings will push the authorities in Pristina to change their decisions, given that since Kurti's Self-Determination Movement first came to power, and even more so after its second term, political tensions have only increased.

“For that reason, we may not expect much from Sarrazin's warnings, but it is a very important signal that Berlin has also recognized the negative consequences of political extremism. Perhaps Kosovo, which is becoming economically and politically isolated due to its unilateral actions, will realize the need to be much more proactive," Curcic added.

Regarding the likelihood of what will happen before the Berlin Process summit in October—whether Kurti will lift the ban on Serbian goods, allowing Kosovo to participate, or whether Kosovo will be excluded from the gathering—our interlocutor says it is difficult to predict, and both options remain open.

"I'm leaning more towards the possibility that Kosovo will be present, especially because this is important to Germany itself, but the question is how Kosovo will implement Germany's demands," says Curcic.

High-ranking officials from the Western Balkans Six and their colleagues from the host countries of the Berlin Process meet at least once a year at the Summit and during preparatory ministerial meetings. Last year, the summit was hosted by Tirana. The process also involves EU institutions, international financial institutions, civil society, and businesses in the region.

It was initiated by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and its members include Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Albania. In 2022, they signed agreements on mutual recognition of ID cards, university diplomas, and professional qualifications, and in 2020, they adopted the Action Plan for a Common Regional Market.