Curcic: It is very important that Berlin has recognized the negative consequences of political extremism in Pristina

Petar Curcic, a researcher at the Institute for European Studies, says that the message from Germany's Envoy for the Western Balkans, Manuel Sarrazin, that Kosovo could be excluded from the agreement on a common regional market because Prime Minister Albin Kurti is not willing to make certain compromises regarding CEFTA, should be taken seriously because it is expected that Germany will be the one to restrain Kurti and calm the heightened tensions caused by his government.

He adds that this has also happened in various crisis situations over the past few years, but from a broader perspective, this does not change Berlin's stance on Kosovo.

"On the contrary, it will remain the same as it has been. We should not forget that, on one hand, Germany is one of the main supporters of Kosovo's independence, but on the other hand, there is an expectation that Berlin will regain political influence through economic means. Why is exclusion from the Berlin Process being mentioned? Because it is a kind of political-economic leverage through which influence is exerted on Southeast European countries. This is a very important instrument," Curcic told Kosovo Online.

However, he emphasizes that it is questionable whether this will influence the authorities in Pristina to change their decisions, given that political tensions have only increased since the first and later second rise to power of Kurti’s Self-Determination Movement.

"For that reason, perhaps we should not expect much from Sarrazin’s warnings, but it is a very important signal that even Berlin has recognized the negative consequences of political extremism. Kosovo, which is economically and politically isolated due to the unilateral actions being implemented, might realize that it needs to become far more proactive," Curcic added.

During his visit to Pristina last week, Sarrazin said that the idea is for Kosovo to once again allow the import of goods from Serbia, and that within CEFTA, it would be represented with an asterisk instead of through UNMIK, as is currently the case. However, Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s response to this was negative.

When asked what is more likely – whether Kurti will lift the ban on Serbian goods by the Berlin Process summit in October and Kosovo will participate in this summit, or whether it will be excluded from the gathering – our interlocutor said it is difficult to predict, and that both options remain open.

"I am leaning more toward the possibility that Kosovo will be present, especially since this is important to Germany itself, but the question remains how Kosovo will implement Germany’s demands," Curcic said.

He also points out that the foreign policy of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government aims for a certain kind of political balance, but that this balance should not be understood as a shift toward Belgrade.