Can Vjosa Osmani play an important role in resolving the political crisis in Kosovo?

The current political crisis in Kosovo and the introduction of punitive measures by the European Union due to the rejection of requests for de-escalation of the situation in the north have also brought to the surface the differences in the performance and relationship that Prime Minister Albin Kurti and President Vjosa Osmani have with international officials. Unlike Kurti, who was made aware that he was losing the support of certain centers in the West, Osmani is still a "welcome guest" at rallies, and she just finished another visit to Tirana, where she also met with Prime Minister Edi Rama, who is on a "war footing" with Kurti. The question arises whether Vjosa Osmani is a factor among the Albanians for getting out of the crisis and what her future role is.

The interlocutors of Kosovo Online, Serbian and Albanian analysts do not rule out the possibility that Osmani could play a significant role in overcoming the current situation in the north, which has made Kosovo the target of US and EU punitive measures.

This is supported by several factors, one of which, they point out, is the good contact that Osmani has with the USA.

During the crisis in the north caused by the incursion of Kosovo Special Forces into municipal buildings and the imposition of illegitimate mayors, she made cautious statements about the crisis in the north, in which she did not openly support the moves of Kurti's Government in the north. Of course, she belongs to the group of tougher Albanian politicians, especially when it comes to relations with Serbia.

Her political path is also interesting. Before the elections in February 2021, in which Kurti won, she left the Democratic League of Kosovo and formed the "Guxo" Movement, which joined Self-Determination in the election race. It is estimated that with this, she withdrew as many as 100,000 LDK votes from the electoral pool and brought them to Kurti. Now the question arises whether and how realistic an option is whether Osmani, as a former member of the LDK, can be the key factor for the creation of a future political group that would replace Kurti.

This is where parliamentary mathematics should be brought into play. The Parliamentary Group of Self-Determination currently has 56 MPs in the Assembly of Kosovo out of 120 MPs, including those from Osmani's "Guxo". The opposition bloc currently has a total of 42 MPs - Democratic Party of Kosovo 18, LDK 16, and Alliance for the Future of Kosovo of Ramush Haradinaj eight. That block for the overthrow of Kurti's Government, which they are calling for, also needs the votes of the "Guxo" MPs.

Speaking about what Osmani's role could be in getting out of the political crisis in Kosovo, Pristina-based analyst Shkelzen Maliqi reminds Kosovo Online that she was too dependent on Kurti for a long time, but "she kind of stayed aloof, she didn't even talk much publicly about the processes that were negative for Kosovo and that led to the introduction of sanctions".

"Kurti himself admitted that the measures were not fair, that they seriously threatened Kosovo's institutions and the plans of the state, as well as the private sector. He also predicted earlier that Osmani, if she wanted to survive, would profile herself, because she had been too quiet for more than two years, aloof, and she had to show that she was not on Kurti's side and that she could cooperate with the Americans. At first, she made more cautious statements, but now she has a more open attitude; it can be seen when it comes to relations with Rama and Albania, she is trying to repair the general image of Kosovo. Of course, she also strengthens her own image at the same time, because it is obvious that Kosovo is going either towards elections or towards a solution to this crisis. Now, in the coming months, there will be a new diplomatic offensive, and she, as the President, has the right not to lead directly, but to take part in the creation of that foreign policy, but it is obvious that she is assuming the role of a mediator. Now, to what extent and how it will go, what Kurti will do - we will see. Kurti is now waiting to meet with Vucic in Brussels, so, her role was necessary for her to activate herself, to raise her voice and say some things," Maliqi says.

When it comes to the good relations of the President of Kosovo with the USA and whether Washington could play the "Osmani card" in the replacement of Kurti, Maliqi says that parliamentary combinatorics, that is, the balance of power in the Assembly of Kosovo, is important for the change of government.

"Currently, the situation is such that without the support of the MPs of Osmani's party 'Guxo', which is in the parliamentary club of Kurti's Self-Determination, it is difficult to secure the necessary majority to overthrow the Government. However, if 'Guxo', as a group, would withhold support, plus the MPs of Self-Determination who left that party in the previous months, then Kurti, if the rest of the opposition also unites, would no longer have a majority in parliament. We will see in which direction the crisis unfolds. It seems to me that Kurti now has only one card, and that is to say that he accepted the Ohrid Agreement, that they will implement what the EU and the USA are asking for, that they will make concessions in the north of Kosovo, that they will no longer condition the replacement of four mayors through a petition, but that they resign and open up space for organizing new elections so that there can be changes. In this sense, now Vjosa Osmani has increased her role in organizing the previous elections, in the sense that she arranged it all with the Quint, but now she could play that role again, and Kurti may be expected to resign, but I think that the diplomats and the Americans still hold him in order to fulfill what he promised, to create the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities and to move forward with the process, and perhaps to formally sign the Ohrid Agreement. You see that actually the Kosovo opposition accuses Kurti that what he signed is harmful to Kosovo," he states.

Maliqi also referred to the fact that Osmani had left the Democratic League of Kosovo before the elections in February 2021 and joined the coalition with Self-Determination, which, he said, contributed significantly to the defeat of the LDK and then Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti and Kurti’s coming to power.

“She then in a way brought around 100,000 votes to Kurti, because he would not have won with such a convincing majority if it had not been for the split between the Osmani and the LDK. Perhaps this fact could play a significant role in the next elections in Kosovo, which, as now things stand, are more and more certain by the end of the year or in the spring," Maliqi says.

For the analyst from Gracanica, Aleksandar Gudzic, the West's insistence on cooperation with the Osmani, the fact that they invite her to meetings and summits, is a message from that part of the international community to Kurti that he can be replaced.

"I believe that practice has shown that the patrons of Kosovo's independence, the USA, Great Britain, and Western European countries, at some point, when there is a political crisis in Kosovo, install in power people who do not have the political capacity and a foothold in the electorate of Kosovo. That is how they did a few years ago appointed Atifete Jahjaga, who became the President of Kosovo, although few people in Kosovo had heard of her at that time, she had no political capacity. It is not excluded that in the future they will do something similar with Vjosa Osmani, even though she may not have the political capacity and foothold in the electorate of Kosovo, but to be chosen to lead the Kosovo political scene," Gudzic says for Kosovo Online.

According to him, her return to the LDK is not a realistic option, he believes that Osmani will continue to act independently politically and in this she will have the support of the western part of the international community, above all those who are the main patrons of Kosovo's independence, that is the USA.

"The Americans have made it clear to Kurti several times that they are dissatisfied with his firm position and the general opinion is that he has lost control and that, if he does not calm down, he may be removed and Vjosa Osmani be appointed in his place. That, in my opinion, is not excluded, practice and experience, have shown that it is possible, the example of Atifeta Jahjaga shows that Kosovo is a protectorate, a colony, and that the colonial administrators put at the head of their colonies and their protectorates people who are loyal to them and who are obedient and the colonial administration does not tolerate the disobedient and those who want to resist," our interlocutor says.

He indicates that "Kurti and his political option failed expectations, from the economy to a series of other promises on which they won the elections, that what the Kosovo Albanians believed in has failed and that they want to leave Kosovo en masse".

An analyst from Tirana, Ben Andoni, tells Kosovo Online that although he does not believe that "Osmani could help resolve Kosovo's internal political crisis, it is noticeable that in recent weeks, she has been more relaxed in her rhetoric towards Kosovo politicians and Albania”.

"The opposition in Pristina often sees Osmani as a problem, due to her close relationship with Prime Minister Kurti. Also, Osmani, as President, should remain above all political parties in Kosovo. When it comes to a possible coalition between Osmani's political group and LDK, it would be very difficult. Osmani is still very close to Kurti and Self-Determination. It is a kind of tandem that works in many ways. Osmani estimates that early elections and her opposition to Kurti do not help her future. Also, LDK does not count on her, because of the split in this party, the departure of Osmani, and her cooperation with the Self-Determination," Andoni points out.

He also indicates that the USA, through Ambassador Hovenier in Pristina, knows Kosovo and its internal conditions very well.

"President Osmani cannot achieve more than she did with Self-Determination. More precisely, her strength did not exceed the position of the President of Kosovo. So the USA is waiting for a new reality that would be created by Self-Determination, which currently seems impossible. On the other hand, Kurti's position is not the same as it was before. In my opinion, more time is needed to reach a new political reality in Kosovo, maybe in a few months, when Kosovo feels the consequences of the US and EU measures," Andoni says.

When it comes to the relationship between Kosovo and Albania, he believes that it will be difficult for Vjosi Osmani to improve those relations, especially between Rama and Kurti. On the other hand, Andoni points out, Osmani has good relations with his Albanian colleague Bajram Begaj

"The problems between Kurti and Rama have deep roots. Each of them is trying to show influence on the Albanians in the Balkans. This is the reason that both of them play the nationalist cards at certain moments. Also, it is still remembered how harsh Osmani was, visiting Tirana a few months ago," our interlocutor notes.