Census results and economy: Causes and consequences of labor force outflow from Kosovo

Officially, the complete results of the recently concluded census, which will reveal how many fewer people and workers there are in Kosovo, are awaited in November. Economic experts warn that Kosovo has been facing a serious lack of investments for years and an even greater problem of the exodus of mainly the working-age population and that visa liberalization on January 1 only accelerated that process.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

The initial results of the population census held from April 5 to May 17 indicate that 1,589,659 citizens live in Kosovo – about 150,000 fewer than in 2011.

Acting Director of the Kosovo Agency of Statistics, Avni Kastrati, stated that the key factors for the smaller population are the declining birth rate and migration to Western countries.

He mentioned that in the last 13 years, 400,000 people had left Kosovo.

"This is evident in the labor force, in the economy, but also in universities," Kastrati said.

According to yet unofficial census data, about 600,000 citizens live in the diaspora.

Experts warn that this number is much higher.

The President of the Economic Committee of the Kosovo Assembly, Ferat Shala, says that according to the census results, the population of Kosovo has decreased, which will impact the economy, labor force, and strategic investments.

Former Prime Minister and current MP of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), Avdullah Hoti, emphasizes that some municipalities have up to 35 percent fewer residents compared to the 2011 census and that the mass exodus of young people will have long-term consequences, not just for the economy.

"The mass exodus of specialized staff, especially in medicine, information technology, engineering, and similar fields, creates a void in the market and society. This will have long-term consequences for the economy. The number of students graduating in these fields each year cannot replace those who emigrate," Hoti pointed out.

Controversies with the diaspora

Libek economist Mihailo Gajic explains for Kosovo Online that due to the increasing emigration of young people, primarily to Western Europe, Kosovo is entering a phase of demographic aging, which will affect economic growth and a range of social problems.

"Kosovo, like other countries in the region, is entering a phase of demographic aging for several reasons. One is the declining birth rate, and another is the emigration of young people from Kosovo, primarily to Western Europe, but also to Serbia, due to economic and political reasons. This will then affect economic parameters in terms of slowing economic growth, which can then lead to various other social problems," Gajic emphasizes.

This economic expert believes that even the final results of the population census will not provide an accurate picture of how many Kosovo citizens live in the diaspora.

"I think we will never know the exact data. If we look at other countries in the region that have the same or similar problems, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, where the census results are also very controversial and criticized, primarily regarding whether and how the diaspora was counted as the population that actually lives there even if they are not present," Gajic says.

He explains that according to international methodology during the census, the domicile population includes those who have been abroad for less than a year.

"So, if someone goes on a short trip of three or six months, they would be counted as a resident of Kosovo. If it's a longer period, then they would no longer be counted in the domestic present population. Precisely because of this, there is a great possibility of some kind of manipulation of these data, which tells us that the data from Kosovo are probably not entirely accurate and do not reflect the true economic situation," Gajic warns.

He says that the West is currently facing "cyclical migrations," which involve the working-age population going abroad for several years and then returning.

"We still haven't experienced that here. In the entire region, the dominant type of migration is still the one where people leave with no intention of ever returning," Gajic emphasizes.
He asserts that there is no "magic wand" to stop the trend of leaving Kosovo.

"Overall, I am not sure that any country has managed to find a magical solution for migration problems. What is clear is that the main levers, the reasons for this, are economic in nature. That is, whether people can find a job of adequate quality in the field they have been educated in and also have decent earnings and a good quality of life in their own country. Then they wouldn't actually move abroad," Gajic explains.

He emphasizes that the solution lies in stabilization and high economic growth rates, which would bridge the gap between the less developed countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the developed countries of Western Europe.

"We already see that some more successful countries like Slovenia, Poland, and Estonia are reducing this gap, and thereby those migration waves stop being primarily economic and become more about other opportunities," Gajic concludes.

Labor force shortage

Former President of the Chamber of Commerce, Safet Gerxhaliu, assesses for Kosovo Online that a "silent emptying of Kosovo" is underway, as evidenced by the fact that the private sector, due to labor force issues, is increasingly employing workers from Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India.

“It is true that the private sector has problems when it comes to the workforce. On the other hand, we have an import of labor, especially from Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India. Thirdly, there are many unemployed people who are not included in the employment census. We must agree that statistical analyses need to provide accurate results from accurate data, not accurate results from incorrectly inputted data,” Gerxhaliu told Kosovo Online.

He explains that because of this, a group of economists approached the Statistical Office, asking for general data on the population, the ratio of men to women, as well as data related to the workforce and employment.

This expert emphasizes that the census should clearly define how many citizens are in the diaspora.

“There are ambiguities not only according to analysts but also based on various data. Care must be taken to find out the exact number of citizens currently living in Kosovo, how many are abroad, how many have taken foreign citizenship, and how they are treated in the population census. In this context, I think that visa liberalization has led to a significant number of people leaving Kosovo. Whether this is a temporary departure or not, I do not know, we will find out over time. But in some way, there is a silent emptying of Kosovo, which may not be visible at first glance, but it is happening, and it certainly affects the population numbers,” Gerxhaliu stressed.

Commenting on the recently completed population census, this expert assesses that it was the biggest event because this process is important not only from a political but also from an economic and social perspective.

“Based on the population number and everything discovered, a development strategy for the future can be created, whether for five, ten, or 15 years. It is a significant factor that should be used for development and perspective,” Gerxhaliu said.

He explains that for the first time, a new method was used in this census – digital census-taking, which involved more than 3,000 enumerators.

“The details will be seen based on the results. But the truth is that it was a very large project that should be used for planning and a better perspective for all of us,” Gerxhaliu emphasized.

He points out that this process had its shortcomings.

The first is the fact that municipalities with a Serbian majority in the north were not included in the census, which, Gerxhaliu emphasizes, will have negative consequences.

“On the other hand, I think it must be clearly defined who the residents are, the permanent citizens, as this includes the diaspora, and thus the registration shows that they were not included in this process. This is a problem that will have negative consequences. The exact number of Kosovo citizens, including the diaspora, must be defined,” the economist warned.

Depopulation and causes

Sociologist from the Institute for European Studies, Marija Marsenic, says that the results of the population census in Kosovo show depopulation and refute Prime Minister Albin Kurti's claims of economic prosperity.

"When it comes to the results of the population census in Kosovo and Metohija, it can be said that we are witnessing a trend of depopulation, that is, a decrease in the population. Additionally, there is a recorded decrease in the number of the working-age population in younger age groups, which indicates a deficit of the working-age workforce," Marsenic said for Kosovo Online.

According to her, the causes should primarily be sought in the political situation, then the poor standard of living, and finally in security tensions.

"Recently, we could read several World Bank reports indicating a high level of unemployment in the so-called Kosovo. I believe it is recorded to be over 60 percent. There are also poor business opportunities and migrations.  Then there are reports on economic growth that Albin Kurti has manipulated to suit his narrative, trying to deceive the public with stories of enormous economic prosperity and a high quality of life for people in Kosovo and Metohija," Marsenic emphasized.

She explains that the census results actually refuted Prime Minister Albin Kurti's claims.

"The census results absolutely refuted all his claims and showed the economic difficulties the people are facing. The only thing he has successfully distributed is certainly fear and violence, while there are no real solutions such as public policies, domestic and foreign investments, and development projects. There are no indications of that," Marsenic emphasized.

She says that visa liberalization has created an additional problem, after which over 270,000 Albanians left Kosovo.

"These are mostly young and educated people, that is, the working-age population that left this territory and headed to European Union countries in search of better living conditions and economic opportunities," Marsenic stressed.

She explains that when a large outflow of the working-age population causes an imbalance in the labor market, i.e., a shortage of qualified labor force, it results in an increase in unqualified labor force, which leads to a reduction in contributions to the social protection system, as well as an increase in the average age of the population and numerous other consequences.

She says that in such a situation, it is very difficult to find a solution because, as she emphasizes, "population policy is a privilege of rich countries."

"It can only be considered when all other social aspects are balanced. But, first and foremost, in this case, it is necessary to think about political and security stabilization. Only then do measures such as aligning education with labor market needs, greater inclusion of women in the labor market, increasing salaries, and supporting entrepreneurs come into play," Marsenic concluded.

"Masked" data

Researcher at the Center for Social Stability, Marko Blazic, assesses that Prime Minister Albin Kurti, by presenting incorrect data on the number of citizens who have left Kosovo, wants to mask his political debacle and catastrophic economic situation.

"The census results are catastrophic. Every state develops its economic development strategy, social policy, and demographic policy based on the data from the population census. When you do this poorly and deliberately present incorrect results, you jeopardize your state's strategy for the future. We see that Albin Kurti does not care about this. To mask his political debacle and economic catastrophe, he deliberately presents incorrect and unclear census data. This will have consequences in the future," Blazic told Kosovo Online.

He states that the number of people who have left Kosovo is much higher than reported and that this was most evident in January, when all flights and bus lines were fully booked.

"It is clear that the economic situation in our southern province is catastrophic, primarily caused by Albin Kurti's extreme policies. We do not have a single major investment realized in Kosovo and Metohija, the inflow of foreign direct investments is at the lowest level, and we do not have a single major infrastructure project being implemented. As a result of all this, we also have visa liberalization, which the EU granted to citizens holding the so-called Kosovo passport, leading to a massive outflow of the population. We see that Albin Kurti is trying to mask the reality of how many people have actually left Kosovo and Metohija. We can now say that the figure is certainly over 200,000 in four years. It is very likely much higher," Blazic concludes.