The future of Germany's role in Kosovo: The dialectics of 'close connection'

Germany, one of the main advocates of Kosovo's independence, has recently found itself in the midst of an economic, political, and geopolitical crisis. This includes strikes by farmers and workers in various sectors, rising energy prices, the weakening of the ruling "traffic light coalition", and a decline in the popularity of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, along with the strengthening of the right-wing Alternative for Germany. These circumstances have sparked hope among some and fear among others that Berlin might turn away from Kosovo to address its domestic issues. Analysts argue that despite internal upheavals, Germany's foreign policy is unlikely to change.

One of the main messages from dissatisfied Germans to their ruling elites is that the country, increasingly referred to as the "sick man of Europe", should mind its own business rather than meddling in others' affairs—be it Ukraine, Europe, or any other, to the extent that some are calling for Dexit, or leaving the EU, following the example of Great Britain.

Whether the German Government will heed its citizens' calls and whether this could divert its attention from Kosovo, with which Germany is "closely connected", as stated on the website of the German Embassy in Pristina, remains to be seen.

Not so long ago, during a visit to Serbia at the end of her mandate, former Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke of the "close connection" between Germany and Serbia, which seems to have significantly weakened since her departure. This could serve as a warning for Kosovo that the "close connection" in the German version may be just a dialectic.

However, despite the political, economic, and identity crisis in Germany, the current government remains firmly on what can be called an Atlanticist course, and no changes regarding Kosovo should be expected for now, says Dusan Dostanic from the Institute for Political Studies. He emphasizes that this can be observed in the case of Ukraine.

"The situation with Ukraine can also be viewed in the context of these protests by farmers, because farmers complaining about subsidies being taken away rightly say, 'How come there is no money for farmers' subsidies, but there is money, for example, for aid to Ukraine, a country at war'. Then the question arises again about the purpose or goal, what is the function of the state government—whether to care for its citizens and their well-being or to resolve conflicts worldwide and assist countries where it thinks things are not going well. In any case, regarding Ukraine, it is evident that this government remains committed to its previous foreign policy, and in that sense, it seems that no changes should be expected regarding Kosovo with this current government," our interlocutor notes.

According to him, the Greens, who currently lead German foreign policy with Annalena Baerbock, are firmly and much more radically on an Atlanticist course than was the case with Angela Merkel. However, he reiterates that it is challenging to speak of any significant policy change in broad terms.

"The changes compared to Angela Merkel's policy are not quite so drastic. During Angela Merkel's rule, all these things happened concerning Kosovo, which from our perspective are not so positive: the recognition of Kosovo's independence and Germany's engagement in that regard. And with this new government from two years ago, things have not changed, the course has not changed, so German patronage over that entity in our southern province has not taken on a different form. The only thing that can be rightfully said is the further deterioration of relations with Serbia, meaning that if there were perhaps still some barriers during Angela Merkel's time, now, under the leadership of the Greens, those barriers no longer exist," Dostanic assesses.

He recalls that the Germans were quite involved in Kosovo earlier, and there are books in which various authors claimed that US policy towards Kosovo in the nineties was conditioned by German policy, "so the Germans, from the beginning, showed quite an understanding for the KLA and for the terrorist activities that were happening there in the late nineties".

"Now we see that the Germans were active in giving that Franco-German plan, that certainly obliges them, and they will insist on that plan being implemented, but this is conditioned by the fact that they recognized the independence of Kosovo from an earlier period, and German official policy as it stands today represents one of the patrons of Kosovo's independence, and there should be no illusions about that," Dostanic says.

However, he adds that various voices are coming from the opposition at the moment.

"Understanding of the Serbian position and the Serbian case, cannot be found with the Greens or with the Social Democrats or with the Liberals, while different tones are heard from the Alternative for Germany. In the Bundestag, there were discussions about the real situation in Kosovo or pointing out that a government that is so involved in the case of Ukraine and protects the sovereignty of Ukraine at all costs, to the point of supplying weapons to that country at war, on the other hand, supports the secession of the Serbian province, and there is no hope that they will engage in protecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Serbia," Dostanic concludes. 

Analyst Afrim Hoti emphasizes for Kosovo Online that Germany is generally focused on the Western Balkans, but the issue of Kosovo and the dialogue is not at the top of the German agenda. He adds that Berlin is interested in realizing the Franco-German plan because it is the "only way forward".

"Germany is generally focused on the Western Balkans, but not as the Federal Republic of Germany, as Germany's policy is tied to the policies of other EU members, including in this case, Great Britain. As we could see in recent months and during the past year, Olaf Scholz has been involved in events in the Western Balkans, together with the French President and the Italian Prime Minister. But we should not forget that the issue of Kosovo and the dialogue is not at the top of the agenda, as Germany is currently facing other problems, including one of the main issues, the war between Russia and Ukraine. But at the same time, it seems that Germany is contributing to the Western Balkans because the integration of the Western Balkans is not only in the interest of the region but primarily in the interest of the EU, where Germany is among the main actors," Hoti says.

He recalls that Germany sees itself as a promoter of economic development in the Western Balkans, and its role is focused on economic assistance. However, he notes that besides the economy, we also see other activities of the German Government, whose voice in the region is Ambassador Jorn Rohde.

"I think Germany is interested in implementing the Franco-German plan because it is the only way forward. Whatever plan or proposal we have, it is in line and will be in line with the plan proposed by Germany and France. At the same time, many other obstacles - in terms of implementation, mainly come from Serbia, but to a certain extent, there are obstacles from Kosovo as well. In this regard, we see, and I am convinced, that there is strict coordination between France and Germany with the US to resolve the issue as soon as possible," Hoti states.

Petar Curcic from the Institute for European Studies also points out to Kosovo Online that one should not expect Germany to change its strategic policy on Kosovo due to reduced activity in the Western Balkans region - as a result of events on the domestic political scene, as well as European elections and crises in various parts of the world.

Curcic recalls that the German Government and Chancellor Olaf Scholz are at a historic minimum when it comes to competence assessment and emphasizes that one should not forget that popularity is one thing, and strategic interests in Germany have not changed towards Kosovo for more than 30 years - "certainly since the NATO aggression, but even before that".

As he notes, Germany is currently focused on domestic issues related to the farmers' strike and other ongoing strikes, while German foreign policy, as well as the domestic political scene, is interested in European elections.

"That's what will be in the spotlight, especially since it decides which of these European parties will prevail. Scholz's party is in the bloc of socialist and democratic parties, on the other hand, there is the opposition Christian Democratic Union in the European People's Party, it is expected that this struggle could be in focus, but one should not expect Germany, although it may be less active in this area, to change its strategic policy towards Kosovo. It was one of the promoters of Kosovo's independence," Curcic says.

As he adds, if we talk about the Franco-German plan, Germany will certainly wait for the outcome of the elections in the US for the simple reason that it will determine broader relations between Europe and the US.

“Do not expect the US or European countries that have recognized the unilaterally declared independence of Kosovo to withdraw their recognition. Regarding the right wing, although estimates suggest it could strengthen, one should wait for the election outcomes and overall political circumstances. It is difficult to predict what will happen now, but in that sense, as none of the right-wing governments in Europe have changed their stance on Kosovo's secession, I don't believe the Alternative for Germany would either," Curcic says.

He adds that a process of fragmentation of the right is currently taking place in Germany with the emergence of some other right-wing parties.

"In principle, Germany will not change its stance, but the implementation of the Franco-German plan will wait for broader political circumstances. Of course, one should not forget the crisis in the Sahel, the crisis in the Mediterranean, the crisis in Ukraine, and a potential escalation of relations in the Pacific or the Far East," he points out.

It is to be expected, as Curcic notes, that Kurti’s Government, with the support of some Quint countries, will exert pressure on the Serbian community. One such measure is undoubtedly the decision of the Central Bank of Kosovo to introduce the euro as the only official currency.

He recalls that although the euro is used in Montenegro and Kosovo, this was not done in line with the decisions of the European Central Bank. He says this will be a stumbling block, primarily for Montenegro as a full-fledged and independent state, but it will also be a problem for Kosovo in terms of attempts by the Brussels administration to involve them in the enlargement process or negotiations. This will be an additional problem primarily because of the five EU member states that have not recognized Kosovo.

"Kosovo's perspective is complex in that regard, and it is not expected to improve in the foreseeable future, even though leading Western countries will seek to support Kosovo in their intentions," Curcic concludes.