Is Kosovo closer to a new government or early elections?

Albin Kurti is clear: first the election results, then the certification of votes, and only then will talks about a new government begin. The first unknown has been "checked off." For the latter, nothing has progressed beyond the beginning. Post-election "math" provides equal chances for the formation of a "Kurti 3" government, a "block" consisting of opposition parties, or new, early elections. The outcome will not depend solely on the will of political parties in Pristina, but also on "suggestions" from Brussels and Washington, say Kosovo Online’s sources.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

The Central Election Commission was given the green light on Thursday to announce the final election results from February 9 after the Supreme Court rejected a complaint from the Democratic Party of the Ashkali people, which claimed there were manipulations with postal votes.

According to the results, the Self-Determination Movement has 48 seats, DPK 24, DSK 20, and the ABK-Nisma coalition has eight.

For now, it is certain that Self-Determination, at least according to the statement of the Speaker of the Kosovo Assembly, Glauk Konjufca, will not form a government with the Serb List.

“The 'Kurti 2' government, as you saw, was formed in cooperation with non-Serb minorities. That is our goal because it has positively affected Kosovo, preventing the Serb List, which operates under the influence of Belgrade, from having decisive power as it did in previous governments,” Konjufca said.

However, according to Lahi Brahimaj from the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, Self-Determination does not only have problems with the Serb List.

He claims that seven MPs from this party are ready to join the opposition, and in that case, a new government would be formed by an “anti-Kurti block.”

Vulent Bugaku, a researcher at the Kosovo Democratic Institute, is convinced that the fate of a new government or new elections will depend on the votes of “defectors.”

He calls it the “practice of attracting MPs.”

“I believe we will have a government, but I do not exclude the possibility of any MP leaving, nor the possibility that the government could be voted in by any MP from other parties,” said Bugaku, explaining that if a government is not formed within 60 days, conditions will be created for the dissolution of parliament and new elections.

(Dis)position from Washington

Milos Pavkovic, a fellow at the Center for European Policy in Belgrade, also does not exclude the possibility of "defections," but he is not referring to MPs from the party that won the most mandates.

He predicts that a new “Kurti 3” government could be formed by a coalition between Samoopredeljenje and the opposition Nisma of Fatmir Limaj, but he also emphasizes that such a combination will largely depend on Brussels and Washington, which do not view current Prime Minister Albin Kurti favorably.

“The question arises whether Nisma of Fatmir Limaj will potentially form a coalition with Kurti and give him the necessary support. That is still uncertain, and I think it will depend on the international community and Kosovo’s Western partners. It seems to me that there is no current mood in Europe, especially in Washington, to approve a ‘Kurti 3’ government,” says Pavkovic for Kosovo Online.

He emphasizes that this is also reflected in the restrictive measures that the EU has not lifted from Kosovo, as well as the relations between Washington and Pristina.

“At the White House, they view Kurti unfavorably, and the bilateral relationship between Washington and Pristina is at a very low level,” Pavkovic specifies.

He believes that there are equal chances for a new, third mandate for Albin Kurti, as well as for early elections.

The least likely option is the third: a government formed by opposition parties.

“When we talk about a third option, a government without Self-Determination, it is marginal, and I believe there is very little chance for an 'anti-Kurti platform' to actually form a government together with the Serb List,” says Pavkovic.

He doubts that a new government in Pristina could be formed thanks to votes from Self-Determination MPs who would change their "camp."

“If some Albanian parties, for example, DSK and DPK, really formed a coalition, there is a possibility that they could attract some Self-Determination MPs. However, Self-Determination has had very rigid positions towards other Albanian parties in the last few years, and it’s questionable if there are any interested MPs in their ranks willing to 'defect,'" Pavkovic concludes.

Willingness to Compromise

Political analyst Artan Muhaxhiri also doubts that "defections" from Self-Determination will happen, but believes the election results indicate that Kosovo is equally close to forming a new government or holding early elections. The solution will depend entirely on the willingness of political actors to make compromises and the fact that the mandate of such a coalition would be time-limited.

“The possibilities are 50:50. The doors are open for every scenario, and anything is possible. It is possible that Kurti forms a government with Nisma and minorities. But, it is also possible that opposition parties unite and form a government. It is also possible to go to new elections. It will all depend on the goodwill of all leaders, but the election results offer many different possibilities because we don't have a clear majority as we did four years ago,” emphasizes Muhaxhiri in a conversation with Kosovo Online.

The key to resolving the post-election puzzle lies in the pragmatism of political leaders.

“Whoever forms the government will have to make many compromises. Kurti or the opposition will have to share a lot of power among numerous actors. However, I think it will not be possible for this government to last four years, because whoever forms the government, I believe it will not be stable, and we will have new elections,” says Muhaxhiri.

He mentions two key reasons: the presidential elections scheduled for the spring of next year and international pressure on Pristina regarding the dialogue.

“Especially when it comes to the Trump administration, when Kosovo comes into their focus,” emphasizes this analyst.

Although he does not entirely rule out the possibility that if more MPs leave Self-Determination, the party could lose the necessary majority, Muhaxhiri doubts this will happen.

“That option always exists, but I don’t believe it will happen because Self-Determination has a very strong structure, and they are very connected. It has been shown that anyone who left Self-Determination did not succeed in continuing their political career. It has been difficult for them to position themselves in the parties they joined. So, if it does happen, it will be short-lived because they won’t be able to survive. But I believe that Kurti has a way to prevent them from doing so, and they are aware that switching to another party will not end well for them,” Muhaxhiri is confident.

"Bosnian Model"

Security studies researcher Nikola Vujinovic believes that Kosovo is closest to holding new, early elections, and he sees the reasons for this in the excessive intolerance between Albanian parties.

“If we look at the various possibilities, we can see that there are real grounds for forming coalitions and governments, but I think that the intra-Albanian intolerance is really great, and neither side wants to talk to the other, let alone think about a coalition,” Vujinovic says for Kosovo Online.

He specifies that the results of the February elections give opposition parties hope that they will win even more votes in the next ones.

“I think that Kurti’s 48 MPs will decrease in the next elections because the problems of Kosovo, which have come to the surface, are attributed to the government of Self-Determination and Albin Kurti,” Vujinovic specifies.

He warns that at the same time, new elections could "generate new violence against the Serbian community."

“We already see attempts of violence, and we see the attempt to introduce the so-called 'Bosnian model' into the elections in Kosovo. As you know, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Bosniak community votes for the Croatian representative, they vote in elections for the Croatian representative. That’s what has now happened with the Serb List. Around Prizren, near Pec, Albanians voted for representatives of the Serbian community from other political parties, and as a result, one seat from the Serb List went to another Serbian party. I think this will just continue and generate even more,” says Vujinovic.

As a possible scenario, he does not rule out that a new government could be formed, but under pressure from Kosovo’s allies, primarily the U.S.

“If they order the formation of a coalition, it will be formed. However, in that case, the Serb List and the Community of Serbian Municipalities will be factors that must be considered in this new government,” Vujinovic believes.

He doubts that a new government could be formed, as Pristina analysts speculate, through the votes of Self-Determination MPs who would defect to the opposition.

“The Albanian society is not particularly known for these political 'defections' that we can see in some other communities, both in the Balkans and across Europe. I’m skeptical,” says Vujinovic.

He is also convinced that as soon as such a possibility appeared in the media, Albin Kurti "analyzed" the list of potential MPs.

"If he suspected anyone, we will see it by the revocation of their mandate," this analyst is confident.