Local elections in the north nowhere in sight – EU's demand for elections to be held "as soon as possible" has faded

Elections for new mayors and councilors in the four municipalities in northern Kosovo, according to analysts, are unlikely to be held before their regular schedule in the fall of next year, even though Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic recently stated that their organization and holding are one of the prerequisites for more significant progress in the dialogue process. This is despite the fact that the European Union, as part of its de-escalation measures, demanded from Pristina in June 2023 that extraordinary elections be called in the four municipalities in the north – "as soon as possible."

Written by: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

Commenting on Belgrade's demand regarding the elections in the north, Kosovo's Minister of Administration and Local Government Elbert Krasniqi stated that he does not see the possibility of them being held before October 2025. He also mentioned, theoretically, the option of holding them in April, according to the Administrative Guidelines developed by the ministry he leads. This would imply repeating the referendum for the recall of the four mayors, returning to a process designed in a way that, under the current circumstances in the north, has no chance of succeeding.

With the prescribed voting for the recall of mayors of the four municipalities in northern Kosovo, held on April 21 this year, the Western calls for new elections have somehow faded. However, few in that part of the world can contradict the claims that the current local administration in the north is illegitimate, as it was elected in elections where voter turnout was 3.47%, a result of the Serbian boycott.

If the official election calendar remains in place, it will mean that by September at the earliest or November 2025 at the latest, the four predominantly Serbian municipalities in northern Kosovo will still be governed by Albanian mayors elected on April 23, 2023. Even if, after the February parliamentary elections, there is some adjustment in the central government's stance regarding the Association of Serbian Municipalities (ASM), in the existing local environment, without Serbian councilors and mayors, the formation of the ASM would be paradoxical.

Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, Stefan Surlic, believes that Pristina will not show goodwill and call for early local elections to include elections in the four northern municipalities, especially not before the parliamentary elections scheduled for February 9.

Surlic points out that although the possibility of holding parliamentary and local elections simultaneously has been suggested, this would immediately be portrayed as a weak point in Albin Kurti’s campaign and his Self-Determination movement, as well as a concession to Western pressures.

"Local elections might occur after the parliamentary ones, but this would be a short period of just a few months. Therefore, I believe that, as far as Pristina is concerned, and despite international demands and pressures, there will be no concessions, and local elections will be held at their regular time," Surlic told Kosovo Online.

Local Elections Are Called by the President of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmani, but Our Interviewee Does Not Believe She Would Take That Step Without Coordination with the Government

"Although Osmani has shown some acts of goodwill in response to the demands of international actors, unlike Albin Kurti, especially in the recent period regarding the land of the Decani Monastery and the bridge connecting the northern and southern parts of Mitrovica, despite these gestures, she will not act without coordination with the government in Pristina. She knows that such a move would immediately be politically portrayed as a betrayal of Albanian national interests," said Surlic.

Can We Expect the West to Influence Decision-Makers in Pristina to Hold Early Elections in the North?

Surlic gives a negative answer to this question, as he believes this is a closed issue for the West.

"Unfortunately, the prevailing view among Western actors is that the Serbs had the opportunity to participate in the referendum and did not take it, while they ignore the fact that the numbers on the voter lists were not accurate. So, for them, this issue is closed. Most international actors support Pristina in ensuring that the current local representatives complete their full mandate, as long as there are no incidents that disrupt security. Regarding their legality and legitimacy, most do not have a problem with the current situation in the north," Surlic explained.

The Executive Director of the NGO New Social Initiative, Jovana Radosavljevic, also does not believe that early local elections will be held in the north.

"Western countries expect Kosovo to create conditions for extraordinary local elections. This was part of the demands placed on Kosovo last year when measures against Kosovo were introduced, which are still in effect. Kosovo has not met any of the points that were set before it. However, although there will be additional demands, in line with what we heard in President Vucic's recent address, and somewhat aligned with what the West is asking of Kosovo, it is very unlikely that Kosovo will accept and create conditions for new local elections to take place under extraordinary circumstances," Radosavljevic said in an interview with Kosovo Online.

Until the regular elections next fall, she added, the mayors and councilors from the Albanian community, who represent a minority in northern Kosovo, will remain in office.

"The initiative launched earlier this year to organize a referendum for the dismissal of mayors was unsuccessful because there was an agreement for both sides to meet halfway, meaning that with the start of the petition, the mayors would voluntarily resign. However, this would not have solved the problem, as the issue involves both the mayors and the councilors. Only with new elections for both mayors and councilors can we talk about functional local governments, which we currently do not have in northern Kosovo," Radosavljevic pointed out.

Professor of European law Avni Mazreku emphasized that municipalities in northern Kosovo, like any other municipality in Kosovo, should have legitimate governments that emerge from a free and democratic process. However, he also pointed out that the legitimacy of elections depends on the will or interest of citizens to participate in democratic processes.

"When there is a boycott of democratic processes, there is no legitimacy in the electoral process. Both sides have used the process of free and democratic elections in northern Kosovo for political purposes. The last elections were boycotted as a result of a certain political stance," Mazreku said in an interview with Kosovo Online, adding that resolving open issues requires the will of both sides.

There is no such will, according to Mazlum Baraliu, Professor of Constitutional Law at the University of Pristina, who states that instead of getting closer, both sides are moving in opposite directions in their own way, which does not contribute to the normalization of relations.

Baraliu does not believe that the West can influence Pristina to speed up the scheduling of elections in northern Kosovo.

"This government bases its ideas and actions, as they say, in the spirit of the Constitution, law, and order, so I don't believe they will agree to that," says Baraliu, adding that the likely position will remain that early elections can only be held based on the Administrative Guidelines of the Ministry of Local Government.

Baraliu also believes that Belgrade's measures, which include not only elections but also the declaration of Kosovo as a special social protection area, will not be well received in the West, as he describes this as "interfering in other people's affairs."

"I think this should be abandoned because the dialogue process has stalled, and Kosovo also has certain demands and actions that do not align with the requests of the international community. Instead of moving closer together, both sides are going in opposite directions in their own ways, which does not contribute to the normalization of relations at all," Baraliu stated.