NATO is sending additional troops and heavy artillery to the Balkans: 'Rattling of weapons' or calming passions in the region?"

While leaders of Western Balkan countries persistently reiterate that they do not plan any conflicts with their neighbors, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander for Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, announced mid-month the decision to send additional forces to Bosnia and Kosovo, including heavy artillery, stating that they are facing "challenging times, especially in the European theater."

"We have conducted a review of the plan, and it has shown us that we need not only more forces but also NATO heavy artillery to be deployed in the region. Troops in Bosnia and Herzegovina and KFOR forces in Kosovo must be increased to monitor and detect threats against them," General Cavoli told US senators.

He emphasized that "challenging times are ahead in the European theater."

"We are facing challenging times, to say the least, in the European theater. Russia's brutal and unprovoked war has devastated Ukraine for over two years. Russian forces are destroying cities and taking innocent lives on a scale not seen since World War II. These countries are forming intertwined strategic partnerships in an effort to challenge the existing order. This is deeply hostile to U.S. national interests," Cavoli concluded.

President of the Council for Strategic Policies and former Defense Minister of Serbia Dragan Šutanovac immediately pointed fingers at Moscow.

He explained that from the very beginning of the war in Ukraine, it was clear that Moscow wanted the conflict to "diversify to multiple locations across Europe and the Middle East."

"The focus of attention is shifting to us as well, but I don't think it will lead to conflicts, and I hope there will be enough wisdom from all those who decide to prevent that from happening," Šutanovac stated.

Executive Director of the Council for Strategic Policies, Nikola Lunic, says that the deployment of additional NATO troops to the Western Balkans should be seen in the context of preventing potential conflicts and sending a clear message that this region is of geostrategic interest to the West.

"This is a preventive decision to prevent any escalation of the crisis in the Western Balkans. On the other hand, this decision demonstrates the commitment of the NATO alliance. The final document from the recent NATO summit in Vilnius explicitly stated that the Western Balkans are of strategic interest to NATO. This has been reiterated several times by the EU as well. Therefore, the geopolitical influence in the Western Balkans will not be jeopardized by the West at any cost. Anyone who tries to do so will pay a high price," Lunic emphasized in an interview with Kosovo Online.

In response to the question of whether increased NATO involvement means new conflicts in the Balkans are imminent, Lunic believes this is not realistic, though incidents like the one in Banjska can be expected.

"The countries of the Western Balkans do not have the potential for military conflict at this moment. Their military capabilities have been surpassed by technological advancements and the requirements of a modern warfare concept we see in Ukraine. However, certain incidents like the one in Banjska and the geopolitical cost Serbia is paying should not be dismissed. That is why NATO is focusing both with its troops and with clear and explicit messages," says Lunic.

According to him, such incidents would most suit Pristina and Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti regionally, and Russia on a geostrategic level.

"In the Western Balkans, a (conflict) would suit the actors, political entities, who were also suited by the Banjska incident, unequivocally Pristina and Kurti. In the global geopolitical context, any complication in the Western Balkans would suit Russia. We saw President Zelensky's statement that after the incident on October 7th when Hamas committed a terrorist act, the deliveries of ammunition to Ukraine drastically decreased. A similar situation would occur if a new crisis hotspot were to explode. The West would simply turn its support to that part of the crisis location and would somewhat lose interest in Ukraine. This in a global context can exclusively suit Russia," emphasizes Lunic.

He adds that Serbia should be most fearful of such a scenario because it would - lose the most.

Therefore, it is important, Lunic believes, to clearly and explicitly promote foreign policy as prescribed in Article 1 of the Constitution.

"And that is Serbia based on European principles and values. We are already economically and commercially integrated into the EU, and what remains is security and foreign political integration," says Lunic.

Security expert from Pristina, Nuredin Ibishi, assesses for Kosovo online that the Balkans are still a powder keg, hence NATO's deployment of additional forces and heavy weaponry aims to prevent potential conflicts, but he points out that it is up to the politicians in the region to lower tensions and understand that the time for "greater Serbia" or "greater Albania" is over.

"We cannot invent other leaders. This must be done by the politicians who are now in power. They need to lower tensions and understand that the time for 'greater Serbia' or 'greater Albania' is over. They need to make agreements and forgive what was done during the wars, the war crimes that were committed on all sides, and to start peacefully resolving problems. The only way is integration into Europe, freedom of movement, trade, exchange of goods, ideas... Simply, integration," highlights Ibishi.

He emphasizes that by sending additional troops to the region, NATO has signaled to the countries of the Western Balkans that since they have not timely overcome problems and transitioned from post-conflict states to EU integrations, the only option is for this Alliance to strengthen its presence and thus prevent possible future conflicts.

Ibishi reminds that tensions are most noticeable in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.

"All this indicates that NATO is strengthening its presence in the Balkans, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, not only with personnel but also with heavy weaponry to calm the situation and to achieve an agreement and to start on the path of integration into the EU," this expert highlights.

On the other hand, security studies researcher Nikola Vujinovic assesses that the deployment of additional NATO forces and heavy weaponry in the Western Balkans sends a "message on two fronts": to Moscow, but also to Belgrade and Banja Luka.

"These are messages on two fronts. The first message is to Moscow, stating 'this is our territory, you have no business here.' On the other hand, considering the recent events in Kosovo and Metohija, it serves as a 'transit boiler' for Ukraine. That heavy weaponry can quickly be transferred further East," says Vujinovic for Kosovo Online.

He emphasizes that NATO, by sending additional troops and weaponry, has simultaneously sent a "political message" to Serbia and the Republic of Srpska.

"In this way, they want to show that they stand behind those 'other sides' in the region. The Serbian army is sufficiently capable and tactically ready that as soon as it sees such changes, it must also change, which gives many opportunities to everyone in the region to condemn the movements of the Serbian army. The military exercise 'Vihor,' recently held on the Pester plateau, was not coincidentally held at that moment, given that it came immediately after the reinforcement of NATO forces," Vujinovic believes.

He adds that NATO has sent an identical message to the Republic of Srpska.

"We remember that during the elections in the RS, American planes flew over under the pretext of being related to Ukraine, but it's evident that the Zemunik base, now the main NATO air base in the region, is getting fuller and fuller with pilots, helicopters, and planes. This is a clear message to Serbia to 'wise up' because its current policy is not acceptable to the US or the collective West," Vujinovic believes.

This expert is skeptical that new conflicts could arise in the Western Balkans but warns that much will depend on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

"It will predominantly depend on how the Ukrainian conflict unfolds. If it continues at this pace where the Russian army, despite all efforts, manages to take over several streets in a few days, conflicts in the Balkans are far off. There simply isn't a realistic force that can wage war against the Serbian army today, and NATO wouldn't embark on such an adventure again," says Vujinovic.

Otherwise, he emphasizes, anything is possible.

"If, by some miracle, the Russian army rapidly begins to conquer large pieces of Ukrainian territory, I wouldn't be surprised if at least low-intensity conflicts occur, primarily in those countries facing problems, such as North Macedonia and Kosovo, due to their poor treatment of the Serbian community and the strained relations between the Albanian and Macedonian communities, which are covered by NATO's 'umbrella,'" the expert emphasizes.

Regarding claims that conflict in the Balkans is actually most in Moscow's interest in any scenario, Vujinovic says that this is a nonsensical assertion.

"We don't see any action from Moscow leading to increased insecurity in the region. We need to follow the facts. It wasn't Moscow that brought new forces into the region, but NATO. The elites who are essentially the cause of the problem, such as Kurti, Plenkovic, or Becirovic in Bosnia and Herzegovina, weren't appointed by Moscow but by some other actors. In my opinion, that's an excuse for action," he evaluates.

Vujinovic believes that the root causes should be sought in the fact that Serbia is surrounded by NATO countries, so in many situations, events seem to unfold according to the popular saying, "the judge accuses, the judge judges."

"All elites in the region, except in Serbia, are under NATO control, and in this way, they don't decide what to do. Does anyone in this world believe that Albin Kurti decides on his own what to do? I believe not even his wife believes that, let alone any of us," Vujinovic concludes.

Senior researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, Maja Bjelos, assesses that the announcement of increased NATO presence in the Western Balkans should not be seen solely through the prism of constant tensions, especially in Kosovo or Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also in the broader geopolitical context of strengthening this Alliance in opposing Russia, Iran, and China.

Bjelos explains to Kosovo Online that the reasons for the increased NATO presence in the Western Balkans should be found in a recent statement by the commander of NATO Allied Forces in Europe, Christopher Cavoli, who said that some things in Europe are not good for American interests.

"In this regard, NATO has taken two steps. One is the increase in troops and what they call that they must be 'heavier,' in terms of weaponry and procurement of armaments. NATO is currently in the process of procuring that weaponry and equipment from allied countries. The other thing is the linking or intertwining of the EUFOR Althea mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina and KFOR through the dual role of Cavoli's deputy, French General Hubert Coeuré, the deputy chief of staff at NATO's Mons headquarters, who said that based on intelligence, they have information that destabilization in the Balkans is possible," says Bjelos.

She emphasizes that the increase in NATO forces should still be seen in a broader context and an attempt by this Alliance to increase and strengthen its existing bases in Europe, as well as the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific, to counter countries they highlight as the main threats to their security: Russia, Iran, and China.

"It has already been announced that the NATO base in Romania will be the largest in Europe and will replace the one in Germany. We also see that the US is trying to increase its presence in the Middle East, as well as the Indo-Pacific, by strengthening capacities, depots, and forces in Australia. When we look at this broader context, then we can say that the threats directed at NATO and the US are Russia, Iran, and potentially China, and that NATO, as well as member states, are preparing for a broader escalation of violence with Russia, Iran, and China," Bjelos says.