Vujinovic: Additional NATO forces in the Western Balkans – "a message to two addresses"

Security studies researcher Nikola Vujinovic assessed for Kosovo Online that the deployment of additional NATO forces and heavy weaponry in the Western Balkans was "a message to two addresses": Moscow, but also Belgrade and Banja Luka.

"These are messages to two addresses. The first message is to Moscow, saying this is our territory, you have no business here. On the other hand, considering the recent events in Kosovo and Metohija, this is a 'flow-through boiler' for Ukraine. That heavy weaponry can quickly be moved further East," Vujinovic stated for Kosovo Online.

He emphasizes that NATO, by sending additional troops and weaponry, has simultaneously sent a "political message" to Serbia and Republika Srpska.

"In this way, they want to show that they stand behind those 'other sides' in the region. The Serbian army is capable enough and tactically prepared that once it sees such changes, it must also change, which gives many opportunities to everyone in the region to condemn the movements of the Serbian army. The military exercise 'Vihor' recently held on the Pester plateau was not coincidental at that moment, given that it occurred immediately after the NATO forces were reinforced," Vujinovic believes.

He adds that an identical message has been sent to Republika Srpska as well.

"We remember that during the elections in RS, American planes flew over under the pretext of being related to Ukraine, but it's obvious that the Zemunik base, now the main NATO airbase in the region, is filling up more and more with pilots, helicopters, and planes. This is a clear message to Serbia to 'wise up' because its current policy is not acceptable to the US or the collective West," Vujinovic asserts.

He is skeptical that there could be a conflict in the Western Balkans but warns that much will depend on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

"It will predominantly depend on how the Ukrainian conflict develops. If it continues at this pace where the Russian army, despite all efforts, manages to occupy several streets in a few days, conflicts in the Balkans are far off. There simply isn't a realistic force that can wage war against the Serbian army today, and NATO wouldn't venture into that adventure again," Vujinovic says.

Otherwise, he emphasizes, everything is possible.

"If the Russian army miraculously, with great speed, begins to conquer large pieces of Ukrainian territory, it wouldn't surprise me if conflicts, at least of low intensity, occur primarily in these countries that have problems, such as North Macedonia and Kosovo, due to the poor relations with the Serbian community and the strained relations between the Albanian and Macedonian communities, covered under NATO's 'umbrella'," this expert emphasizes.

Regarding claims that conflict in the Balkans is actually most in Moscow's interest in every scenario, Vujinovic says that's a nonsensical claim.

"We don't see any action by Moscow that increases insecurity in the region. We should follow the facts. It is not Moscow that brought new forces to the region, but NATO. The elites who are essentially the root cause of problems, such as Kurti, Plenkovic, or Becirovic in Bosnia and Herzegovina, were not appointed by Moscow but by some other actors. In my opinion, that is an excuse for action," he evaluates.

Vujinovic believes that the key causes should be sought in the fact that Serbia is surrounded by NATO countries, so in many situations, events seem to unfold according to the folk saying, "The judge accuses you, the judge sentences you."

"The big problem, and what should be constantly emphasized – of course, I understand that the state and our foreign policy cannot be so open, but it needs to be highlighted – is the fact that here in the region, except in Serbia, all elites are under NATO control, and in that way, they decide what will happen. Does anyone in this world really believe that Albin Kurti decides on his own what to do? I believe that not even his wife believes that, let alone any of us," Vujinovic concludes.