Pacific dilemma: Do Taiwan and Kosovo face similar security threats?

They are separated by almost 10,000 kilometers, yet their security threats are similar—at least according to Kosovo’s current Minister of Defense, Ejup Maqedonci. While officials in Pristina believe that drawing an analogy between Taiwan and Kosovo makes sense, Belgrade considers such comparisons impossible—yet notes that Kosovo’s authorities favor them, especially since the new U.S. administration has made the Pacific a strategic priority while leaving the Western Balkans issue "for later."

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

At the "Partnership - Democracy" security forum held in Taipei late last month, Maqedonci stated that Taiwan and Kosovo face similar threats and that there is potential for defense cooperation, Gazeta Express reported.

He further claimed that Kosovo and Taiwan are even "facing similar weapon systems, as Serbia has purchased many missiles and weapons from China."

For the People's Republic of China, Taiwan is "sacred Chinese territory." However, the U.S. State Department recently removed a statement from its website declaring that it "does not support Taiwan’s independence" and affirmed that the U.S. would support Taiwan’s membership in international organizations "where applicable."

A Look Toward the Pacific

For historian Stefan Radojkovic, linking issues in the Western Balkans and the Pacific from Pristina's perspective makes sense.

"It is very interesting that Kosovo constantly tries to return to the center of Washington’s attention by associating itself with current, highly significant global security challenges such as Ukraine or the conflict in the Middle East between Hamas and Israel. In that context, Pristina’s diplomacy will attempt to align itself with Taiwan because they understand that all or most of Washington’s focus will be directed toward the Pacific," Radojkovic told Kosovo Online.

He asserts that Taiwan and Kosovo, regardless of intentions, cannot be compared.

"Taiwan has never portrayed itself as an antithesis to the Chinese people, Chinese civilization, or the People's Republic of China. They see themselves merely as a different kind of 'Chinese Republic.' On the other hand, the relationship between Kosovo and Serbia is well known—Albanians attempt to deny any Serbian presence in Kosovo and Metohija, as well as the existence of the Republic of Serbia. This is something that does not exist in the relationship between Taiwan and China," Radojkovic emphasizes.

He also points out a significant difference in economic sustainability.

"Taiwan is economically viable. It is self-sustaining, with a vibrant and capable economy. When it comes to technology, it was among the first regions in the world to develop in that field. On the other hand, Kosovo is not economically sustainable. It wasn’t even economically viable during socialist Yugoslavia, despite substantial financial support directed toward Kosovo. In that sense, there are no parallels," the historian argues.

When asked whether Kosovo and Taiwan face comparable security challenges, Radojkovic acknowledges that they can only be compared in terms of power dynamics.

"The security challenge is that both China and Serbia are significantly larger and stronger entities—recognized states in the international community—compared to these separatist attempts. If a conflict were to arise between these breakaway regions and their respective sovereign states, it is clear that material resources, demographics, military size, and economic potential would favor the sovereign and UN-recognized states," Radojkovic explains.

Similarities and Differences

On the other hand, security expert Nuredin Ibishi from Pristina believes that, despite their different histories, Taiwan and Kosovo face similar security threats.

"Historically, they have no similarities at all, but the security risks are indeed alike for both states," Ibishi told Kosovo Online.

He highlights several key differences between Taiwan and Kosovo.

"Kosovo does not have diplomatic recognition from Taiwan, and historically, the nature of Taiwan’s situation is somewhat different. Taiwan is recognized by 17 states, while we are recognized by 117, including the world's most powerful countries," Ibishi said.

He recalls that Taiwan was under Japanese occupation for about 50 years and, after World War II, following the civil war between Mao Zedong and Chiang Kai-shek, it became part of China.

"In 1979, the U.S. recognized China but not Taiwan. Then, in a 2021 referendum, 63% of citizens identified as Taiwanese, while a little over 23% identified as 'Taiwanese and Chinese'…," Ibishi says.

He adds that Taiwan has its own challenges, while Kosovo’s Defense Minister Ejup Maqedonci used the security forum in Taipei to push for potential cooperation in arms production.

However, he believes this idea is currently unfeasible.

"The government’s announcement about opening a weapons and ammunition factory is already in preparation, with a Turkish investor involved. But this is about a factory producing 9x19mm and 5.51mm caliber ammunition. The opening of a full-scale weapons production facility has been postponed for a later time," Ibishi emphasizes.

‘Donor Diplomacy’

Nikola Lunic, Executive Director of the Council for Strategic Policies, stresses that comparing the security challenges of Kosovo and Taiwan is a result of "donor diplomacy."

"Kosovo and Taiwan have completely different international legal statuses. While Kosovo wants to be an independent country and has declared independence, Taiwan has never aimed for that and seeks a solution within Chinese sovereignty. These are two completely different things. The only common factor is that both have disputes with their parent states. If we refer to that geopolitical position, then I would say Kosovo and Taiwan have geopolitical similarities and should seek their future status within their parent state, just as Taiwan is trying to do," Lunic told Kosovo Online.

Lunic also sees the linking of Kosovo and Taiwan as a consequence of Pristina's "donor diplomacy."

"Maqedonci's statements shouldn't be taken too seriously because their current diplomacy can be described as a 'search for donations.' Through this speech and narrative, he is trying to attract donors not only from Western countries but also from entities like Taiwan," the analyst explained.

He emphasizes that, despite Maqedonci's claims, the security challenges of Kosovo and Taiwan are "completely different."

The only possible "connection," he notes, is the fact that Serbia has acquired some air defense systems from China.

"Taiwan is facing a robust global power that has overtaken Russia in global influence, while Serbia merely possesses some Chinese weaponry that serves a purely defensive purpose—FKT missiles are air-defense missiles with no offensive capability," Lunic concluded.