Mitrovic: After the elections in the USA, a change in policy is possible, the situation with Taiwan without impact on the Kosovo issue

This year will be marked by elections in many influential global states, whose policies have an impact on the Western Balkans region, especially regarding the Kosovo issue and the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. Dragana Mitrovic, a professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, notes that in this context, the results of the presidential elections in the United States and the elections for the European Parliament could carry the most weight.

"American elections will undoubtedly have the greatest weight. Prior to them, we have Russian presidential elections, elections for the European Parliament, where the composition will change, and many European officials will be replaced. Whether EU policy will change, especially in Germany, which also faces a series of important regional elections, remains to be seen. We see the strengthening of the right, which at the moment is practically the most rational force in the political spectrum of this country. This could be a movement in a positive trend, but still in the medium and long term, not so quickly, considering the deadlines that have been set and invented, supposedly requiring resolution and putting exceptional pressure on us around January and February," says Mitrovic for Kosovo online.

Regarding the upcoming U.S. presidential elections in November, she points out that they are already becoming complicated due to legal decisions hindering intra-party competition for Donald Trump, who is leading in the Republican Party.

"If Trump were to win these elections, American foreign policy would certainly be less interventionist. However, it's unlikely that the strategic course set for the longer term would change. Positive changes for us could be expected in the long run, but not so much in the short and medium term, although officials would probably be at least somewhat replaced, and we would see less hostile and compromised faces. But, as we know, in Trump's previous term, the administration left numerous positions in the State Department unfilled, and the Biden administration has also withdrawn many retired officials whom we know unfavorably. So, in that sense, it would be somewhat more favorable," believes Mitrovic.

Commenting on the presidential elections in Russia, Mitrovic states that continuity is expected both domestically and in foreign affairs.

"There will be continued support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country, which is crucial for us, in international bodies and in general," notes the professor.

The first elections to follow in the world this year will be held in Taiwan, where citizens will elect their president on January 13. According to Mitrovic, these elections could influence the escalation of tensions primarily in the relations between the U.S. and China.

"Both sides will want to favor candidates favorable to them in these elections, which, I presume, will worsen the already strained U.S.-China relations. However, no one in Taiwan actually wants any conflict with mainland China, nor, in my opinion, will there be any major changes regardless of which option wins these elections, whether it's the Kuomintang, traditionally oriented towards reunification with mainland China, or the Democratic Progressive Party, which is more pro-American and pro-independence. In any case, whoever wins these elections will not dare to challenge the People's Republic of China by declaring or formally calling for independence, which is its 'red line.' So, I don't think there will be any major escalation, any major hotspot, and even less that it will spill over to us and the issue of Kosovo," emphasizes Mitrovic.