Political crisis in France: Will Macron change his policy toward the Western Balkans?

France is shaken by one of the most serious crises in the last half-century, and the new Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, is Emmanuel Macron’s fifth appointee to that post in the past two years. As one of the most important “links” of the EU, France is burdened by serious financial problems as well as foreign policy challenges, analysts from Tirana to Belgrade emphasize. In a conversation with Kosovo Online they warn that one should not expect that the open issues in the Western Balkans, as well as the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, will be on this country’s priority agenda.

Written by: Djordje Barovic

France is in “mortal danger” because of the national debt, and therefore must cut the budget by 40 billion euros, cried out in mid-July the then Prime Minister François Bayrou.

Members of the French parliament voted no confidence in him on September 8 after he tried to solve this problem through a change of the budget. A day later, Bayrou officially submitted his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée Palace.

“Headache” and priorities

The analyst from Pristina, Alma Lama, says in a conversation for Kosovo Online that the political turbulences in France are also reflected in that country’s foreign policy, and that the Western Balkans and the question of the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina are currently not priorities either for Brussels or for Paris.

Nevertheless, political stability and security in this region remain at the top of their agenda because they do not want a “headache.”

“I do not believe that the Western Balkans is currently the highest priority for France or for the European Union. The main focus is on security, the war in Ukraine, conflicts such as the one in Gaza, and on broader international relations, where major geopolitical changes are taking place. Nevertheless, Europe’s eyes are following the Belgrade–Pristina dialogue, but the internal political crisis in Serbia and Kosovo does not work in favor of that process,” says Lama.

She explains that in Kosovo a government has not yet been formed nor has the parliament been constituted, and that a similar situation exists in Serbia, where “political instability fueled by protests” prevails.

“The dialogue is not a priority either for the countries of the region or for Brussels. Of course, political stability and security remain at the top of the agenda. No one wants new security challenges or additional headaches in the region,” Lama emphasizes.

Commenting on the political crisis in France that culminated in the dismissal of the prime minister, this analyst believes that the country is going through “political turbulence” that is also reflected in foreign policy.

“France, as one of the main states and actors in the European Union, is going through internal political turbulence that is reflected in its foreign policy, primarily because this crisis arose from budgetary problems. On the one hand, the authorities wanted to reduce certain expenditures, and on the other to increase the defense budget,” she specifies.

Lama states that the question of security has become key for the entire EU.

“That pressure is increasing because of the war in Ukraine, and France and President Macron are facing internal difficulties. Nevertheless, I believe this is not the first time in such a situation. He has already previously managed to overcome similar crises and play an important role in shaping French foreign policy. Therefore I do not look with great pessimism at how France will continue its foreign policy, especially regarding the Ukrainian question,” Lama believes.

She is convinced that, regardless of the fact that the whole situation “appears worrying,” the French president, together with other European leaders, will “persevere on the question of security.”

“The whole of Europe, with the support of the United Kingdom, is working on increasing allocations for armaments. That may not be good news in the context of the global arms race, but it is, in many people’s view, necessary. Therefore I do not believe that France’s role on the international stage will be diminished,” Lama states.

Security question

On the other hand, the Director of the Center for Foreign Policy, Aleksandra Joksimovic, does not dispute that the political turbulences in France have weakened the positions of President Emmanuel Macron, but that he will nevertheless not change foreign policy, neither in relation to the Western Balkans, nor when it comes to the process of dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.

“The entire EU is focused on the Western Balkans. That is at this moment a security question and, in that context, not only from Brussels, but also from key member states—and those are certainly France and Germany—there is special attention to what is happening in the Western Balkans. With great necessity, the further enlargement process is being viewed so that unity is stabilized over the entire territory of Europe, above all that the security framework be strengthened,” Joksimovic emphasizes in a conversation for Kosovo Online.

She is convinced that France will “play” its role when it comes to the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.

“I am quite sure that the moment the dialogue begins at an adequate level, and we know that the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina has for a longer period been in a certain way blocked, except at the technical level, I am sure that France will play its role as it has until now,” Joksimovic specified.

Commenting on the political crisis shaking France, the former diplomat assesses that because of the “long-standing crisis” the position of President Emmanuel Macron has been weakened.

Last week Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu as the new prime minister, after members of parliament voted no confidence in the then prime minister François Bayrou.

“Macron’s position has indeed been weakened because of the now already long-lasting political crises that primarily related to the parliamentary crisis in the context of the adoption of the budget. The current prime minister is the third in a row who is trying to propose a budget that could be adopted,” says Joksimovic.

Lecornu is the fifth prime minister of France in the last two years, and Joksimovic recalls that Macron tried to resolve the political crisis through elections, however that further complicated the situation in this country.

Nevertheless, she is convinced that Macron will not change France’s foreign policy.

“He most certainly will not change foreign policy. Is his position generally weakened? Certainly yes, in the context of the ability to propose certain legislative solutions, to ‘push’ certain projects through parliament. So, that is something that certainly weakens his position, but at this moment it is evident that France is one of those countries that gives full support to Ukraine, that it is prepared to send troops as a guarantee. In that context I think that that kind of policy will not change,” Joksimovic believes.

She explains that France is facing a serious economic crisis: a record deficit and a credit rating that is at a historical level.

“It has a debt that is greater than 114 billion euros and thus has moved into third place in Europe, after Greece and Italy,” Joksimovic specifies.

She adds that the question of adopting the budget is a question of “saving money” in order to stabilize its public finances, but that an additional problem is the insistence on increased defense expenditures within NATO.

“The current Prime Minister Lecornu was the minister of defense and is known for having worked precisely on increasing armaments. On the other hand, Lecornu is a man who has not always had much understanding for the EU. He rarely went to meetings in Brussels. He has excellent relations with the German minister of defense, but it seems that from the position of prime minister he will have to communicate much more closely with Brussels,” Joksimovic predicts.

Marginalization of the Balkans

The former Ambassador of North Macedonia to NATO and professor of political science and geopolitics, Nano Ruzin, assessed that the turbulences within France are producing a decline in Emmanuel Macron’s influence in the EU, as well as a marginalization of the Western Balkans and the question of the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.

Ruzin emphasizes that the crisis in France can be mirrored in the EU, with the Balkan region bearing the consequences.

“On the external front, too much attention is being paid to Ukraine and Moldova, that is, to EU enlargement in that direction. One gets the impression that the countries of the Western Balkans with all their problems—from EU enlargement to the problems between Belgrade and Pristina—are somehow falling into the background. In other words, both Pristina and Belgrade, as well as the other countries of the Western Balkans, will be able to rely more on the leadership of the EU than on the significance that Macron once had. Thus, the Western Balkans are marginalized both in Macron’s eyes and in the eyes of the EU,” Ruzin tells Kosovo Online.

The unfavorable situation in France has also affected the influence of this country, and this expert supports that with the fact that Macron is currently the president with the lowest rating, which is between 12 and 15 percent.

“He is trying to make foreign policy a kind of trump card for improving his rating, that is, to practically no longer deal with domestic, but only with foreign policy, hoping that in that way he will improve his political rating,” Ruzin believes.

The consequence of such an approach is—“a kind of decline of the traditional monopoly” of this country in the EU.

“France is one of the engines of the European Union and a country that pulled forward during Merkel’s era—Macron and Merkel were the engines. But today France is entering the European Union and the international community more broadly weakened. Let us only recall what Trump says and what his positions are toward Macron, so France has lost the credibility it once had,” Ruzin emphasizes.

This analyst, a good connoisseur of circumstances in France, says that this country is currently experiencing its “greatest economic, political, and social crisis” since 1958, and that in a situation when, under the Constitution, most of the executive power is under the control of the president.

He adds that numerous analysts interpret the overall crisis in France through several factors: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, rising prices, up to the poor economic-social and budgetary policy of Macron’s government.

Ruzin states that in the last few years Macron has made several political mistakes, the key one being the dissolution of parliament after poor results in the elections for the European Parliament.

“That is considered one of the biggest mistakes. Then he called new elections in which he was even more drastically defeated by Le Pen’s party and the Socialists,” this analyst states.

He interprets the frequent changes of prime ministers as a consequence of France’s facing a “huge public debt” amounting to 3.4 trillion euros, that is, 113 percent of gross national product.

That was also the reason for the dismissal of François Bayrou and the selection of the new prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu.

“The French must tighten their belts and be disciplined. Working hours should be increased and two days off taken away… This Bayrou policy did not pass,” Ruzin explains.

He sees another problem in the lack of unity of the EU.

“Take only the problem with COVID-19 up to today, especially the crisis in Ukraine, and the problem with Gaza, and you can see a non-uniform European Union. Thus, the EU has weakened in terms of its unified approach to solving global problems. Somehow it has timidly left that to the USA,” this analyst observes.

Ukraine, he emphasizes, is currently the greatest security problem for the EU, but it has been shown that it does not have the military capacity to resolve that crisis.

“The announcements that the United Kingdom, which is not an EU member, and France are ready to send forces to Ukraine are somehow insufficiently substantiated, because no other country in the EU is ready for that. I mean Poland, Germany, Spain, Italy…,” Ruzin says.

He does not see the additional problem for France so much in the announced demonstrations and blockades, but in the fact that no one can predict the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

“Macron’s opponents believe that perhaps the best solution is for Putin and Zelensky, with Trump’s help, to be forced to sign a (peace) agreement. In that case, if Russia keeps the territories it has seized, that will also mean a victory over the EU and France. And that is not a good sign because Putin could continue to seize territories. But the question is whether there is another option. Would the solution be to fight for another decade and, in that period, for the European powers to strengthen and increase aid to Ukraine. I think the world is not yet ready for such events. Peace negotiations may come. The EU must play a significant role in those negotiations between Russia and Ukraine,” Ruzin concludes.

“Periphery” of interest

A lecturer at Epoka University in Tirana and political analyst, Armand Pljaka, also believes that the region should be concerned about the current crisis in France, as well as in other key EU states, because the “future of the Balkans” is moving to the “periphery of their interests.”

“We should be concerned about the situation in France, taking into account our interests. It seems that the future of the Balkans is on the periphery of this country’s interests. The cause is the current problems and strong challenges that official Paris is facing and because of which, it seems, it is as if it is completely shifting French commitment to the Balkan question,” Pljaka tells Kosovo Online.

Commenting on the current political crisis in France that culminated in the dismissal of the prime minister, this analyst emphasizes that the key problem of the new government will be the “definition of foreign policy to the extent that it is possible.”

“We know that the pillars of foreign policy must have continuity. Every new government cabinet has the opportunity to resize this policy, always maintaining traditional priorities. In that context, I think that France and Germany, which are the main duo of the EU, will continue to pay attention to developments in our region, and events at the global level, especially the crisis in Ukraine,” Pljaka is convinced.

Pljaka says that the Western Balkans in the last ten or so years has been in danger of the “heating up of Euroscepticism and the exponential growth of radical right-wing groups.”

“What is currently happening in France I see as a new chance that is given to that country, and to our region. I hope that the positions of the new government will be strengthened and that the most immediate problems will be resolved, such as the budget or pensions, i.e., internal problems,” this analyst is convinced.

He bases his optimism on the fact that the new French Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, is a former minister of defense and “compatible with the new plans and spirit of NATO.”

“It is about a plan of ‘reforms for common defense’ due to facing what is known as the Russian threat or the new global order. I sincerely hope that France will keep the same course and that our perspective will not be endangered, and may even be further enhanced—I mean the entire region, given that Albania, as well as other countries (of the Western Balkans), have a clear pro-European stance,” Pljaka believes.

He partially explains the causes of the crisis in France by the strengthening of right-wing parties in Europe, which has not bypassed this country either, with the rise in popularity of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.

“If an appropriate formula is not found and if the demands of radical groups of the left, the unions and new protest groups are not met, the country could go to early elections,” Pljaka warns.

As another important moment for France’s further fate, he points to the presidential elections, which are planned to be held in 2027.

“The presidential elections in 2027 could bring a very big shock. We will have a new president, and perhaps a completely different political line. I do not want such a scenario of a victory of radical right-wing groups, because that would be a very bad fate for our region, and even more so for Albania. Their public positions, consistently, have been obstructive, and often bleak for the European perspective of the Western Balkans,” Pljaka emphasizes.

He recalls that France has for years suffered from internal political instability.

“That is not only because of the current situation, but also because of the continuous crises that have occurred, especially in the last mandate of President Macron. We remember the large ‘yellow vests’ protests, as well as the manner in which protests happen in Europe. All that shook the state to its foundations—what is known as the French Fifth Republic, whose foundations were laid by the immortal, famous leader, General de Gaulle,” Pljaka assesses.

He sees the appointment of the new French Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, as a positive step.

“Not only because he has long experience and was part of an important party, but his movements within the former government cabinet were such that they brought him great popularity, especially among left-wing groups and parties,” Pljaka concludes.