Preliminary census results in Kosovo: What statistics revealed and concealed

The preliminary census results have been published in Kosovo. Although authorities in Pristina claim that the data is still incomplete, interlocutors from Kosovo Online warn that this process has been accompanied by numerous controversies and irregularities from the beginning, and that the results might conceal the fact that an increasing number of citizens are finding their future abroad.

By: Arsenije Vuckovic

According to the preliminary results of the population census conducted from April 5 to May 24, Kosovo has either 200,000 more residents or 153,000 fewer compared to 2011.

What is most troubling is that everyone seems to be right in this calculation.

Avni Kastrati, Director of the Statistical Agency, stated at a press conference that Kosovo has 1,586,659 residents, which is 200,000 more than in 2011.

However, in 2011, Kosovo had 1,739,825 citizens, so simple math suggests there are now 153,166 fewer.

"During the period 2011-2023, Kosovo's population increased by 203,294 residents (positive growth). However, preliminary data shows a population decrease," it was explained in a slide during the report presentation.

To clarify the situation further, we contacted the Statistical Agency, where it was explained that the difference in numbers stems from the fact that in 2011, unlike this time, the diaspora was not included in the census.

Kastrati mentioned during the presentation of the preliminary census report that the final results will be presented by the end of the year and that the presented number of residents does not include the nearly 600,000 diaspora citizens who have been registered so far. The census process for this category remains open until August 31.

According to the Statistical Agency, the population increased in nine municipalities, while in 29 local governments, this number decreased.

Kosovo has 795,046 men and 791,614 women. The average age of citizens is 34.82 years.

"The implementation of the population census has been one of the government's top priority projects this year, considering the importance of timely data. This registration reflects our commitment to understanding and addressing the needs of our population, ensuring the equitable distribution of resources, and laying the foundation for informed decision-making that will shape Kosovo's future," stated Prime Minister Albin Kurti.

Politics or Ignorance?

Sociologist from Pristina, Dr. Ismail Hasani, told Kosovo Online that the "difference in counting" between 200,000 more and simultaneously 153,000 fewer residents points not to a political issue but to the ignorance of those conducting the census process.

"When the enumerator came to me, I asked him what a census is, and he didn't know how to answer. So, the problem is not political but one of ignorance. When the final results are published, we will see where they missed. I have been against this census from the beginning. The census wouldn't have escaped us; we lived without it. When the state is consolidated to the point where only the population census remains, it means it has solved all its problems," says Hasani ironically.

He has no doubt that the Government of Kosovo completely missed the mark with the population census because, as he emphasizes, it was riddled with numerous irregularities from the beginning.

"I think the Government of Kosovo completely missed the mark with this population census. The census should be conducted, and every country is obliged to do so, but under different circumstances. First, the Government of Kosovo should have returned to the Ohrid Agreements and the implementation of the tasks it undertook regarding the establishment of the Community in municipalities with a majority Serbian population as part of that agreement and completed all tasks arising from it," Hasani told Kosovo Online.

He also states that it was necessary for the government to initiate a dialogue with the Serbian community before the census.

"To start a dialogue with local Serbs because, in the enclaves where Serbs are forced to live or have chosen to live, a population census cannot be considered successful. There is one municipality, which I won't name, with 457 residents, which is not accurate. After all, that isn't even a municipality. How will that municipality access funds, be part of the tax system, or use government funds with 400 residents? They missed the mark there," Hasani points out.

He emphasizes that the census process has other key shortcomings, raising doubts about the validity of the data.

"When it comes to the numbers, I have scientific doubts about some basic standards and criteria that were applied. For example, and I'm not talking about history now, in 1851, the question of nationality was introduced in the census process; before that, it didn't exist. Now, when we look at the questions asked, both Albanians and Serbs refused to participate for objective reasons. For the Serbian side, we can say they boycotted because someone told them not to participate. But what about Albanians or other nationalities who also refused the census?" says Hasani.

In his opinion, the key problem is that untrained and unprepared enumerators were sent out for the census.

"They sent their people who are politically aligned with the Self-Determination Movement, the political party of Albin Kurti, but they didn't train them," says Hasani, citing as an example that, according to census results, North Mitrovica has fewer residents than some other municipalities in the north.

"That's what the numbers showed," Hasani concludes.

He adds that another problem is the fact that in many places there were no enumerators at all.

"I don't know how much they were paid, but they sent children. In some places, they didn't go at all. I know many, and in the neighborhood where I live, they didn't come. I don't know where they got those numbers from. I am completely against the way the census was conducted in Kosovo," emphasizes Hasani.

When asked how he assesses the fact that the diaspora will be able to register until the end of August, this sociologist says it is absolutely a political problem.

"This is indeed a political issue. The Prime Minister of Kosovo needs the diaspora for votes. He is not inclined to wait for the diaspora to come when they have time to register; instead, he insists on keeping all the strings so he can use them when it suits him for voting," believes Haziri.

Demography and Diaspora

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic says that the preliminary results of the population census in Kosovo fit into the regional trend of demographic decline, but also that the authorities in Pristina are trying to conceal it through an unrealistic portrayal of citizens who are in the diaspora.

"I think the manipulation occurred in the sense that some people who were counted as permanent residents are actually more part of the diaspora than realistically being on the territory of Kosovo. I believe there will be some form of manipulation here. We won't have a true picture of how many people have actually left Kosovo. There is a decline in birth rates, but there is also a high rate of emigration, which the results of this census will not properly reflect," Gogic said in an interview with Kosovo Online.

He recalls that Kosovo once had a "demographic boom" and is now on a downward trajectory.

According to him, Kosovo, like all other countries in the region, is facing a demographic decline and an increase in the number of people going abroad, which is why census takers were "flexible."

"Based on the information I have from the field, it seems that they were a bit more flexible and that it is possible that some residents counted as permanent residents living in Kosovo actually spend most of their time abroad. Household members were allowed to count their family members who are temporarily working abroad, so the demographic decline in Kosovo is probably greater than this census shows, and more people have emigrated than will be determined based on the census," Gogic points out.

He adds that the trend of emigration is also observed among other minority communities in Kosovo, primarily Bosniaks and Gorani, while the growth trend is noticeable only among the Roma population.

Commenting on claims by some analysts that the preliminary census results are alarming and require an "emergency situation," Gogic says these are politicized statements because the entire region is facing this phenomenon, which cannot be resolved "overnight" but requires long-term planning and strategy.

"Anyone who has tried to solve the demographic crisis overnight has seen that it doesn't work that way. But yes, indeed, Kosovo, like the entire region, must ask itself who will live there in the future, and above all, why this trend of emigration exists, which is primarily due to economic reasons. This is something that requires serious thinking in politics," Gogic concludes.

Migration and Strategies

Milica Andric Rakic, program manager of the NGO Social Initiative, assesses that Kosovo, according to the preliminary census results, is facing both internal and external migration of the population. This should have been a sufficient signal for Prime Minister Kurti, but he has adopted the wrong strategy to bring back the diaspora.

"There is internal migration, and there is external migration. What the results generally show is that Kosovo has a serious problem with population outflow. Kosovo is the only country in the region with a positive natural growth rate, meaning many more births than deaths, yet it has lost around 200,000 people, that is, the number has decreased by 200,000 since the 2011 census. And that is a serious problem," Andric Rakic told Kosovo Online.

According to her, the authorities in Pristina are aware of the problem, which is why they decided to include the diaspora in the census.

"Generally, the diaspora is not included in the census count. You can choose to count the diaspora, but those numbers won't impact how local policies are created or the budgets of municipalities. I assume this was done just to mitigate potential negative census results, to show that there are still people, they are just abroad, and maybe they will return," Andric Rakic emphasizes.

In this light, one should also view Prime Minister Albin Kurti's announcement offering favorable loans to the diaspora in case they return and start a business.

"This is a rather discriminatory measure and shows that the government is actually not thinking about the people who are already in Kosovo but is trying to force people to return. However, serious local changes need to happen to attract people from the diaspora back," says Andric Rakic.

Commenting on the preliminary census results, Andric Rakic notes that the census showed that around 1.5 million people live in Kosovo, of which five percent are national minorities.

However, she highlights that the census also indicates a depopulation of smaller areas and an unrealistically higher number of residents in towns with predominantly minority communities.

"When you look at the results by towns, the Agency reported that nine towns recorded population growth, but real growth only happened in Pristina and Kosovo Polje, and to some extent Urosevac, but that is really very little, only 700 more residents. All other towns, actually municipalities where growth was recorded, are minority: Strpce, Gracanica. Gracanica, for example, recorded an 80 percent population increase. Mamusa, a Turkish municipality, Klokot, and other municipalities considered non-majority. Even there, the growth is not real; it is the result of the boycott of the 2011 census. The increase in population numbers now shows that the Serbian population responded more this time. Real growth only exists in Pristina and Kosovo Polje," says Andric Rakic.

Therefore, some areas south of the Ibar, such as Gracanica, which now records 19,000 residents, or Strpce, which increased from 3,000 residents in 2011 to 10,000, will feel the benefits.

"This will positively reflect on their budget calculations; their budgets will increase, and these local governments will be able to breathe a bit easier, having more resources at their disposal," she explains.

On the other hand, she says that Kamenica and Decani are municipalities with the highest outflow of residents.

"Decani has lost 48 percent of its population," says Andric Rakic.

She adds that population migration is most noticeable in Pristina, which has grown from 190,000 to 227,000, and in Kosovo Polje, which has doubled its population and now matches South Mitrovica in size.

"This shows that a good part of people are moving from surrounding, or rather peripheral, municipalities to Pristina. Kosovo Polje is now practically merged with Pristina," concludes Andric Rakic.