Vujinovic: Time is working in Self-Determination's favor, new elections the most realistic scenario

The most realistic scenario following the elections held in Kosovo on June 7 is the holding of new early parliamentary elections, according to security studies researcher Nikola Vujinovic, who believes that the Self-Determination Movement is seeking to consolidate all key positions of power and currently has the greatest room for political maneuvering in the process of forming institutions.

Vujinovic points out that Self-Determination, which won the largest number of votes in the elections, wants to secure all key positions of authority.

"They want to take everything, to have the president, the prime minister, and the speaker of parliament. They received the largest number of votes and believe that this belongs to them. As things stand, it appears that the diaspora will provide them with the mandates necessary to form a government on their own. Then we will be able to see what kind of debate will take place with the parties that received fewer votes, with the opposition regarding the election of the president," Vujinovic told Kosovo Online.

According to him, Self-Determination will once again try to apply the scenario from December, namely delaying the constitution of parliament so that new elections can be called at a moment when their main voters are in Kosovo.

"I think new elections are the more realistic option. And if any concession were to be considered, I think their only potential partner would be the Alliance. Together with the mandates of MPs from non-Serb minority communities, that would provide a parliamentary majority. But the question of the president remains, and a president cannot be elected without the support of either the PDK or the LDK, that is, without those parties providing a quorum for the candidate," Vujinovic said.

He explained that Kurti does not want the PDK as a partner because he fears the return of Hashim Thaci, which could cause a decline in his popularity. At the same time, he clearly harbors negative feelings toward Vjosa Osmani and the LDK, which embraced her, and therefore does not want to support her in any way.

"He said it on election night, at least indirectly, that he has no intention of allowing her to become the next president. And it seems that this is exactly what the LDK expects," Vujinovic observed.

Speaking about the possibility of opposition parties forming a government without Self-Determination, he assessed that this would be the best solution, but not a realistic one, primarily because of Albanian parties' attitude toward the Serb List.

"The best outcome would be the formation of a broad coalition against Albin Kurti that would also include the Serb community and the Serb List, but that is not possible for two very clear reasons. First, the Serb community is a taboo topic within the Albanian community, and anyone who enters into any coalition with the Serb List is politically dead. On the other hand, we return again to the election of the president. Even with the mandates he received, Kurti has enough mandates in Kosovo and Metohija alone to block the election of a president. And if the election of the president is blocked, we know under Kosovo's Constitution, which is what led to these early elections in the first place, that new elections follow. Therefore, any attempt to form a government without Self-Determination is unrealistic, except under pressure from outside actors, namely the international community, which would force political actors to act contrary to what is rational and logical," Vujinovic stressed.

For that reason, he believes that new early parliamentary elections are the most realistic scenario, although he does not rule out the possibility of an agreement between Self-Determination and either the Alliance or the Democratic League of Kosovo.

"One possible calculation is for Kurti to reach an agreement with the Alliance, or with the LDK, provided that the LDK abandons Vjosa Osmani as its presidential candidate. Certain individuals within the LDK, who are stronger opponents of Osmani and her return, have begun promoting the idea of her becoming foreign minister as a way of satisfying her ambitions," Vujinovic added.

In his view, the least likely option is the formation of a grand coalition between Self-Determination and the PDK.

"Kurti fears the return of Hashim Thaci, which is expected as early as this autumn. The Serb List will once again remain on the margins, so new elections are the reality. And those elections will take place at a moment that suits Kurti, since Haxhiu, who is acting president, comes from Self-Determination. She is the one who calls elections. Time is working in Self-Determination's favor. The only ones for whom time is not working are the Albanian community in Kosovo, which will continue to face the same problems it has today," Vujinovic concluded.