Resistance to the "Kurti 3" government: Can the Kosovo Prime Minister secure a third term?

Nearly two months after the parliamentary elections in Kosovo, it remains unclear who will lead the new government, as no party has won enough votes to form a parliamentary majority independently. Although Kosovo’s Prime Minister and leader of the Self-Determination Movement, Albin Kurti, claims that the “Kurti 3” government will be formed very soon, experts speaking to Kosovo Online believe that due to the firm stance of the opposition and the loss of international support, Kurti will find it difficult to achieve this.

Written by: Milena Miladinovic

With decreased electoral support for Self-Determination, the party will have fewer seats in the new Kosovo parliament. The ruling party secured 48 seats, while 61 are required for a parliamentary majority. Self-Determination is currently in negotiations with representatives of non-Serb minority communities, and calculations suggest that Kurti could secure 59 votes, including the vote of Nenad Rasic, who won one seat in parliament. Of course, there is also the possibility of “fishing” for MPs from other parties.

Albanian opposition parties have made it clear that they will not form a coalition with Kurti’s Self-Determination. Apart from the leader of the Nisma party, Fatmir Limaj, who has stated that he is open to cooperation, other opposition leaders insist that their policies are incompatible with those pursued by Self-Determination over the past four years.

Despite these statements, Kurti and his party members continue to assert that the “Kurti 3” government will be formed quickly, with the first step being the formation of the new Kosovo Assembly. Kosovo’s President Vjosa Osmani has set April 15 as the date for the inaugural parliamentary session.

If Kurti fails to form a government, the responsibility will shift to the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), which received the second-highest number of votes after Self-Determination. This could pave the way for an opposition-led government.

In either scenario, Kosovo analysts believe that the next government will be weak and short-lived.

Experts interviewed by Kosovo Online suggest that Kurti will struggle to form a third government, as Kosovo has plunged into a political crisis following the elections.

They argue that all political parties currently have an interest in delaying government formation, and they do not rule out the possibility of new parliamentary elections being held in October alongside local elections or in the following year when a new president of Kosovo will be elected.

Petar Donic, an analyst from Novi Treci Put (New Third Path), believes that Kurti’s policies face resistance both within Kosovo and in the West, as his previous term saw a slow pace of normalization with Serbia. This, he argues, will make it difficult for Kurti to find allies for forming a government for the third time.

Donic told Kosovo Online that Kurti’s popularity is declining across the board:

“This time, he received 41% of the vote, compared to 50% in the previous election. The two main opposition parties, PDK and LDK, have immediately stated that they do not want to form a government with him. It is entirely possible that government formation will be delayed, or that new elections will be held.”

He added that Kurti’s policies are facing both internal and external resistance:

“During his previous term, the normalization process with Serbia moved very slowly, and both Europe and the U.S. have taken note of this. Under Trump, with Grenell in the administration, there was a shift from traditional policies. However, even in previous administrations, special envoys pushed for normalization, negotiations, and the establishment of the Association of Serb Municipalities. In 2023, Europe responded to Kurti’s stance by withholding development project funding until Kosovo returned to normalization efforts and negotiations with Belgrade.”

Donic emphasized that, despite these disagreements, Europe will continue to support Kosovo, albeit to a lesser extent, if Kosovo’s leadership remains an obstacle to normalization.

“If we go back to Trump’s approach, which focused on economic and political integration in the region, unilateral decisions—such as banning the dinar, disrupting payment transactions, and boycotting Serbian goods—will not be welcomed. Kurti faces a challenging task of rallying traditional and internal allies. We will see how things unfold, but the situation is certainly different from a few years ago.”

Lawyer and former chief inspector of the Kosovo Intelligence Agency (KIA), Shkëlzen Sopjani, believes that the chances of forming a government at this moment are evenly split.

He points out that the parties that won the most votes in the February 9 elections are far from reaching an agreement, with each opposition party making demands that are impossible for others to accept.

“The chances are 50-50. As I see it, the Albanian parties are nowhere near a possible agreement because they have erected barriers. The LDK wants the prime minister’s position, but no party wants to concede it, as it is crucial to each party. The PDK refuses to work with Kurti under any circumstances, and neither does the AAK. We will have to see whether a government is formed or not,” Sopjani told Kosovo Online.

On the other hand, if the ruling Self-Determination secures the 61 MPs needed to form a parliamentary majority and establishes the "Kurti 3" government, such a government would likely be short-lived. As a result, Kosovo could see new parliamentary elections next year, alongside the presidential elections, Sopjani added.

“If a government is formed, it will not be strong. It could be composed of Self-Determination, a few MPs from other parties, and non-Serb minority representatives. However, with such a government, we would most likely head to new elections by next year at the latest, as there would not be enough votes to elect a new president,” Sopjani concluded.

Historian Aleksandar Gudzic stated that Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti lacks coalition potential and has lost the support of part of the international community, making it difficult for him to secure a third term as Kosovo’s leader.

Gudzic emphasized that at the moment, all political actors in Kosovo have an interest in delaying the formation of a government. However, he believes that an opposition-led, but short-term, government will eventually be formed.

“Kosovo has entered a political crisis after the elections. Every actor on the political scene will try to postpone the government formation. This delay benefits the current ruling administration, which is operating in a caretaker capacity and using the technical mandate to appoint officials to various positions. At the same time, the opposition benefits from stalling, as it provides an opportunity for further political attacks against Albin Kurti. At some point, in my opinion, an opposition government will be formed, and everyone will wait for October when local elections are scheduled. I believe that parliamentary elections will also be held at that time, allowing all political factions in Kosovo to maximize their results both at the parliamentary and local levels,” Gudzic said.

Gudzic pointed out that this scenario would only materialize if the international community does not intervene to shape a favorable government, as has happened in previous years.

“All of this depends on whether the international community refrains from dictating the formation of a new government, as it has done in the past. Let’s not forget how the international community—primarily the United States—installed Atifete Jahjaga as the president of Kosovo,” Gudzic added.