Self-Determination and the diaspora: Could the judgment against KLA leaders erode Kurti’s support abroad?

The conviction of the KLA leaders before the Specialist Chambers in The Hague could affect some of Albin Kurti’s traditional voters in the diaspora, but the question remains whether any loss of support for Self-Determination could translate into gains for the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), according to Kosovo Online’s interlocutors. While some point to dissatisfaction with the judgment and the possibility that it could prompt some diaspora voters to change their political preference, others say there are currently no indications that the judgment has negatively affected diaspora support for Kurti.

Written by: Jelena Novakov

If an agreement on the election of a new President is not reached by the October 6 deadline, the Kosovo Assembly will, pursuant to the Constitutional Court’s latest ruling, be automatically dissolved and citizens will once again go to the polls. The opposition believes that this is precisely Albin Kurti’s objective—to have elections held at a time that suits him, around the holiday period when members of the diaspora return to Kosovo.

Self-Determination has also won the diaspora vote in previous elections, with votes cast by Kosovo citizens living abroad securing the party several seats in the most recent elections.

However, a new factor emerged on September 16, when the Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague sentenced four KLA leaders to a combined 81 years in prison for war crimes.

Since then, protests have been held among the Albanian diaspora to express dissatisfaction with the judgment and support for Hashim Thaci, Kadri Veseli, Jakup Krasniqi and Rexhep Selimi. The Pristina authorities’ handling of the issue has also been criticized at some of these gatherings, raising the question of whether the judgment could drive a wedge between the diaspora and Self-Determination.

Kurti’s “golden vote”

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic said that the diaspora had been an important source of support for Albin Kurti in the previous two election cycles and that its influence had been particularly pronounced because of relatively low turnout among the local population. He added that there were currently no indications that this would change despite the judgment against the former KLA leaders in The Hague.

“The diaspora was the golden vote for Kurti in the previous two election cycles. In December, the diaspora gave Kurti a huge, convincing victory. In June this year, it did not come to Kosovo in such large numbers, but it sent its support from abroad, either by voting at diplomatic and consular missions or by mail,” Gogic told Kosovo Online.

According to him, diaspora support for Kurti is not limited to the holiday period, as the June elections also demonstrated. Kurti’s campaign is therefore counting on the diaspora regardless of when elections are held, Gogic noted.

He added that the diaspora could once again prove more interested in voting than the local population, which, in his assessment, was more disillusioned and apathetic toward political processes.

Speaking about the impact of the Kosovo Specialist Chambers’ judgment on the relationship between Kurti and the diaspora, Gogic said there were currently no indications that it had negatively affected the support the Kosovo Prime Minister enjoyed among Albanians abroad.

“For now, there are no indications that this judgment has harmed Kurti in any way when it comes to the diaspora. The diaspora is holding protests in various countries, but they are directed against the judgment and against the governments of those countries, which are believed to have supported the work of the Specialist Chambers. So far, criticism of Kurti’s government has not been heard to the same extent from the diaspora,” Gogic said.

He pointed to a distinction between diaspora protests abroad and those taking place in Kosovo, noting that demonstrations in Pristina and other cities also had an anti-government dimension.

According to Gogic, the question remains whether, in the event of new elections, the Hague judgment could generate greater solidarity among the diaspora with the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), and whether support for the party’s former leader Hashim Thaci and the other former KLA leaders could influence the voting preferences of some diaspora voters.

He stressed that Kurti still had arguments with which to respond to any criticism from the diaspora concerning the judgment, recalling his previous position on the Specialist Chambers.

“Kurti has repeatedly said that he was always opposed to the Specialist Chambers. He voted against establishing the Court in the first place and against its operation, so the diaspora cannot accuse him of having contributed in any way to the outcome with which they are dissatisfied,” Gogic said.

Nevertheless, he assessed that the question remained whether the PDK could mobilize support, both in Kosovo and among the diaspora, by using the judgment and dissatisfaction with it as a basis for political support.

Kurti and the PDK battle for diaspora votes

Former Chairman of the Serbian National Assembly’s Committee on Defense and Internal Affairs Milovan Drecun said that Albin Kurti and the Democratic Party of Kosovo were competing for the support of the Albanian diaspora, noting that protests in support of the former KLA leaders could also be used for political purposes, particularly ahead of the next elections.

Drecun recalled that Kurti had conducted an intensive campaign among the diaspora over the previous year, which had produced results in the elections held around the New Year holidays. According to him, Kurti was now once again seeking to secure as much support as possible among Albanians abroad through measures targeting the Serbian population, as well as by emphasizing the KLA’s struggle.

“The Albanian diaspora is fairly independent economically. Its members have significantly higher incomes than the population in Kosovo and Metohija, but they have always been highly radical in their support for the Greater Albania idea and project. They always stand behind those at the forefront of implementing that Greater Albania plan, such as Albin Kurti, and they are prepared to support them,” Drecun told Kosovo Online.

He pointed out that the Democratic Party of Kosovo, whose former leader was Hashim Thaci, was also seeking to use the protests for political purposes and attract to its side some of the voters who had previously supported Kurti.

“The question now is whether the PDK will succeed in winning over part of the electorate that shifted to Kurti. We are facing a major battle for diaspora votes between Kurti and the Democratic Party of Kosovo,” Drecun assessed.

He said it was still impossible to determine which side would secure greater support, but believed Kurti had reason to monitor sentiment among diaspora voters particularly closely, given the possibility that the PDK could gain strength.

Judgment could cost Kurti some diaspora votes

Milos Pavkovic, Strategy Director at the Belgrade-based European Policy Centre, assessed that it was quite possible that the judgment against the former KLA leaders could deter some members of the diaspora from voting for Self-Determination if new elections were held.

“It is difficult to assess precisely because we do not have any research that would confirm or substantiate this; it is more a matter of speculation. Potentially, yes—the judgment could deter diaspora voters because there is considerable dissatisfaction with the decision of the Specialist Chambers. It therefore definitely could, and has the potential to, harm Kurti in terms of declining support among the diaspora, but also at home. Essentially, however, this remains theoretical because we do not have clear evidence,” Pavkovic told Kosovo Online.

He added that the opposition in Kosovo would certainly seek to capitalize on the Specialist Chambers’ judgment in its own campaign.

“The opposition will certainly try to use the judgment in its campaign and attract traditional Kurti voters, both in Kosovo and among the diaspora, to its side,” Pavkovic concluded.

Government and opposition should set differences aside

Gino Maliqi, a representative of the Texas-based organization “Albanians for America,” believes that the Kosovo Government and opposition parties should set aside their political differences and work together to, as he put it, protect the four convicted KLA leaders.

Speaking about the possible political consequences of dissatisfaction with the Government’s response, Maliqi said that support for the convicted KLA leaders should not be viewed through the prism of party politics, but rather as “a matter of national interest.”

“I do not know whether this has anything to do with any particular political party. This has to do with Kosovo’s existence and with Kosovo as such. When it comes to national interests, we have a saying in Albania—we have no religion, no affiliation, no name. We fight for the rights of Albanians and the rights of Kosovo. That is why I think this is much more directly connected with the future of Kosovo and Albania than with any political party. This concerns everyone,” Maliqi told Kosovo Online.

For that reason, he believes that the Kosovo Government must take every political and legal step available to support those convicted in The Hague.

“The Government must respond and protect these four liberators in every possible way. There is no time to wait until tomorrow. It must send a strong message that it stands behind our four heroes who have been charged and are now before the Court in The Hague. Every government must make this its number one priority,” Maliqi said.

He expressed hope that, following the election of a new President of Kosovo on October 6, the political parties would succeed in uniting around a common approach to the issue.

Speaking about Kosovo’s international position and the consequences of prolonged political instability, Maliqi pointed to changes in global geopolitical relations and said it was important for Kosovo to have a fully functioning government.

He claimed that, if Kosovo did not have a functioning government capable of protecting its interests, Serbia could attempt to exploit the situation to “change the international narrative about past events.”