Unilateral actions and the EU’s reaction: Is Pristina facing new punitive measures?

For representatives of the Serbian community in Kosovo, skepticism is almost scientifically grounded: something seems wrong with Newton's Third Law. If every action produces an equal and opposite reaction, why has the EU failed to respond to Pristina's unilateral moves against Serbian institutions south of the Ibar River? In a recent letter to relevant organizations, however, representatives of the Serb List referred less to physics and more to medical terminology, demanding "urgent and tangible action" from international actors in Kosovo instead of "anemic statements." According to experts interviewed by Kosovo Online, this is less about physics or medicine and more about a complex mathematical equation with no unknown variables.

Written by Arsenije Vuckovic

On June 3, 2023, the European Union imposed sanctions on Kosovo due to unilateral actions in the north. Since then, Pristina’s government has taken so many similar actions that it's difficult to keep track.

The most recent incident occurred on January 15, 2024, when 35 Serbian institutions south of the Ibar River were shut down, sparking another wave of sharp statements from international actors in Kosovo.

The EU stated that closing Serbia-supported structures violates Kosovo's obligations under the EU-led normalization process.

"Kosovo must demonstrate and remain consistent with its commitments within the EU-supported dialogue and its recent renewed commitment to it," the EU stated.

The US Embassy in Pristina went further.

"The actions of the Kosovo government to close institutions run by Serbia directly and negatively impact Kosovo citizens—ethnic Serbs and other communities—and could undermine Kosovo's aspirations to join the Euro-Atlantic community," a spokesperson for the US Embassy told Kosovo Online.

Isaac Newton’s Third Law of Motion states: "When one body exerts a force on another, the second body exerts an equal and opposite force on the first."

Representatives of the Serb List reminded international actors in Kosovo of this fundamental law on January 17.

"Ambassadors of the Quint, the EU, OSCE, and the head of the UNMIK mission were sent a letter in which we clearly pointed out the dangers of such actions, which aim to persecute everything Serbian in Kosovo, threaten the survival of the Serbian people, and demanded urgent and tangible action against such behavior by Kurti’s regime, rather than the anemic statements that no one in Priština takes seriously," the Serb List Presidency said in a statement after the closure of Serbian institutions south of the Ibar.

They are still waiting for a response.

Kosovo officials, on the other hand, are waiting for an answer about when the sanctions will be lifted.

Kosovo’s President, Vjosa Osmani, believes this will happen during Poland's presidency of the EU Council, which began on January 1.

"It is time to grant candidate status and lift the EU's unjust measures against the people of Kosovo," Osmani said in a congratulatory message.

Clear messages

Instead of lifting measures, legal expert Milan Antonijevic believes Kosovo should receive clear messages and feel significantly stronger pressure from the countries that provide it with the strongest support.

"It seems that there is some exploitation of the temporary absence of the US administration in the coming weeks, but Kosovo should in no way receive any support. It must truly feel a stronger form of pressure. Not just verbal, not just through statements, but through measures that could target the Growth Plan and other points crucial for Kosovo’s economy, its citizens, and the advancement of their rights or any status regarding its EU integration," Antonijevic told Kosovo Online.

Antonijevic says that only clear messages to Pristina from the countries providing it with the strongest support could alter its course of unilateral actions.

"I genuinely believe that only clear messages from countries like Germany and others that provide the strongest support to Pristina could have an effect. These sharp statements and declarations, while strong, also influence public opinion in Pristina. I hope, in the long term, they will also shift Kosovo’s political landscape to understand that such unilateral measures are unacceptable and that both the EU and the US have opposed such actions from the start," Antonijevic said.

He is convinced that escalating tensions is a tactic used in Kosovo to win votes, something evident to everyone who decided to impose punitive measures on Pristina in June 2023.

"Unfortunately, it has been shown that raising tensions secures votes in Pristina. This is harmful in every way, and I believe the EU and the European Commission are aware of it, as are all who have the power to impose measures on Kosovo. However, there are limited mechanisms available. You can impose certain levels of sanctions and announce reciprocal measures, but unfortunately, Kosovo’s politics continue to fuel this," Antonijevic explained.

He believes the root cause is still the deeply strained relations between Serbs and Albanians, where pressures on Serbs in Kosovo’s public sphere translate into electoral gains.

He hopes this will soon change.

"I hope very soon because we are all bound to live in the same region, and gaining votes at the expense of someone else’s suffering is neither moral nor a quality political act in any sense," Antonijevic concluded.

EU dissatisfaction

However, political analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu does not believe new punitive measures will be imposed on Kosovo despite the EU's strong reactions, considering that the existing measures are already a reflection of dissatisfaction with the government’s actions so far.

"I don't believe it. The fact that sanctions are still in place is a sign of the European Union's discontent with the actions of the Kosovo Government," Spahiu told Kosovo Online.

The EU reacted strongly after the closure of Serbian institutions south of the Ibar River, but Spahiu says the Kosovo Government had to take this step to ensure an equal playing field for all political parties representing the Serbian community during the election campaign.

"What the government did during the campaign was because they noticed that the Serb List had an advantage over other Serbian political parties in Kosovo precisely because it has the support of those parallel structures, or rather institutions of Serbia, operating in Kosovo. They realized too late that this should have been abolished to make the competition between political entities representing Serbs in Kosovo more equal, fair, and just," Spahiu said.

Spahiu adds that no further actions by the Pristina authorities targeting Serbian institutions should be expected, but notes that the appointment of hospital directors and university rectors remains to be addressed.

"Everything that falls within the Constitution and the law, I believe, has already been done. What remains is the appointment of the hospital directors and the university rectors, which falls under the jurisdiction of the mayors of North Mitrovica and Gracanica. However, I don't believe this will happen until these mayors have full legitimacy," Spahiu concluded.

“Soft tactics”

Milos Pavkovic, a researcher at the Center for European Policy, also doubts that new sanctions will be introduced.

Speaking to Kosovo Online, he emphasized that despite the EU’s strong reaction to Pristina's unilateral actions south of the Ibar, he does not expect the EU to impose an additional package of sanctions on Kosovo.

“When we talk about a new package of measures, I believe that at this moment it is unlikely, considering that the EU is not prepared and does not want to further escalate the situation, neither with Pristina nor with the Western Balkans in general. The focus is more on improving relations, prioritizing enlargement policies, and opening additional instruments of financial support,” Pavkovic said to Kosovo Online.

He is convinced that the EU will attempt a “soft approach” of appeasement because sanctions against Kosovo have proven to have the opposite effect.

“I believe the EU will focus more on those ‘soft’ measures, providing funds to appease governments rather than punishing them. It has been shown that punitive measures against Kosovo have had the completely opposite effect, as the Kosovo government intensified the situation and raised tensions after measures were introduced,” Pavkovic emphasized.

Commenting on calls for the removal of these measures, the analyst doubts the EU will discuss the matter before the formation of a new government.

“The measures have been in place since June 2023, and by the end of last year, there was an initiative to remove them. However, the government in Pristina continued with unilateral actions, prompting new condemnations. Therefore, I believe that voting on the removal of measures has been set aside. It will not be a topic until elections in Kosovo are completed, a new government is formed, and the process progresses dynamically,” Pavkovic stated confidently.

He adds that the question remains about what new measures would be effective if the current ones are not producing results.

“This is primarily a question for politicians in Brussels and EU member states, as well as those interested in dialogue, to develop concrete policies that can show results on the ground. If the current pace we have seen over the past two or three years continues, not only will there be no progress in normalizing relations and dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, but we may also see additional tensions that no one can predict the consequences of,” Pavkovic stressed.

He is convinced that the Kosovo Prime Minister, unless there are significant changes among international actors, will continue with unilateral actions.

He believes that instead of the EU, this could fall to a new US administration.

“I would say that the US has always had much greater influence in Pristina than the EU. They have had much better mechanisms of control, given that the US has its military contingent within KFOR and can exert much more pressure on Pristina,” Pavkovic explained.

The American administration led by Joseph Biden has not shown interest in addressing this issue, but Pavkovic expects changes from new people in the White House and the fact that Richard Grenell has been tasked with addressing various global hotspots.

“Considering that Richard Grenell is back in the administration and is very interested in Kosovo, and now has a role within the White House dealing with various global hotspots, which can include Kosovo and Metohija, we might expect the Americans to get more involved. The question is how much Washington's actions will coordinate with Brussels and how much credibility Brussels might lose in the process,” Pavkovic warned.