Trump's initial moves and the region: Balkan (mis)fortunes and Washington's expectations?

The stage is set. Donald Trump is officially the 47th President of the USA as of today. He has selected key players in the new administration and his initial statements indicate that it will be an interesting term. However, despite expectations in the region, analysts do not believe that the issue of dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, as well as the Western Balkans, will be among his priorities. There will undoubtedly be significant steps, claim sources for Kosovo Online, through the envoy for special missions, Richard Grenell - the former US Ambassador to Germany and an expert on Serbian-Albanian and Balkan affairs.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

Better relations with the USA are also expected in both Belgrade and Pristina.

The Prime Minister of Serbia, Milos Vucevic, expressed hope that Donald Trump's administration will be more receptive to Serbia's arguments regarding Kosovo.

"I believe and hope that the new administration will have at least slightly more readiness to listen to the Serbian argumentation. I do not expect them to change course, nor do I expect a significant shift in the US position on issues most important to us, I am speaking about Kosovo and Metohija and the region, but I believe that people around Trump, that is, the new administration, will give space for the Serbian side to present its arguments and for the Serbian voice to be heard louder and clearer," said Vucevic.

In Pristina, they are confident in better relations with the new American administration despite having had another favorite.

"President Osmani has already had the opportunity to personally congratulate President Trump during a significant conversation they had last month at the Élysée Palace in Paris. This ongoing commitment reflects Kosovo's dedication to strengthening cooperation with the new American administration and enhancing mutual interests," stated the media advisor to the Kosovar president, Bekim Kupina, after revealing that she will not attend the inauguration.

Expectations and Reality

The Executive Director of the Pupin Initiative, Vuk Velebit, calls for realism.

He does not expect the new American administration to deal with the issue of the Western Balkans in the first few months at all.

"We need to be realistic in our expectations and I am not sure that in the first few months of the new administration we can see any concrete policies towards the Western Balkans. The reason for this is the war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza, and many other domestic issues that will be important for the new administration," Velebit said in an interview for Kosovo Online.

He specifies that we should wait for the appointment of the new U.S. ambassador to Serbia, but also to see if there will be a change in the Assistant Secretary of State for Europe.

"The first thing that needs to happen is the appointment of a new U.S. ambassador after Christopher Hill leaves Serbia. And then we need to see who will be the Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and who will be the people dealing with our region. Whether Sasha Kasanof will stay in his position. I believe he will certainly be there in the coming period and will deal with the region, but we need to see what the policy of the new administration will be," Velebit states.

Among Serbian and Albanian analysts, one of the important questions is whether President Trump’s envoy for special missions, Richard Grenell, will have new tasks in the Western Balkans.

Velebit believes it is part of his “role.”

"The good thing is that Richard Grenell, with his position as the special envoy of the president for crisis areas, will definitely also have the jurisdiction to deal with our region," emphasizes Velebit.

He is convinced that the choice of the new ambassador in Serbia will carry political weight and that it will be a person trusted by Donald Trump.

"I am sure that the new U.S. ambassador in Belgrade will be a political appointment, that is, an appointment by the White House, because Christopher Hill was a politically appointed ambassador by President (Joseph) Biden. In that context, I am sure that this appointment will carry political weight and that this person will be a person trusted by President Trump and his close circle. I think that Serbia remains significant on the Washington map especially in the context of starting the strategic dialogue between Serbia and America, which gives Serbia a reserved place at the table in Washington," Velebit specifies. If the new ambassador in Pristina, instead of Jeffrey Hovenier, might also be a political choice, but the focus of cooperation will primarily be directed towards Serbia and Albania.

"Washington has been looking more towards Belgrade lately, less towards Sarajevo and Pristina, but if Trump's new administration is willing to deal with some resolution of relations between Serbs and Albanians in these areas, I think that appointment will be important, but I think the relationship on the Belgrade - Tirana - Washington route will be more significant," Velebit is convinced.

Asked how much Trump’s latest statements, especially regarding Greenland, can be connected with issues troubling the Western Balkans, especially the negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, he believes that all his announcements should be taken with a grain of salt, but that undoubtedly the U.S. has its strategic interests.

"As for Greenland, America has its strategic interests there. There will certainly be some discussions, but given that both America and Denmark are NATO members, I think both sides will be very careful. All of Trump’s announcements should always be taken with a grain of reserve. In that way, he tries to increase his bargaining power in relations with Canada and with the European Union, with Latin American countries. He is a businessman, he understands that language, but I am sure that America will have a more direct, pragmatic policy that is more business-based and less value-based," says Velebit.

Grenell and the Belgrade - Pristina dialogue

Another excellent connoisseur of American political reality, Obrad Kesic, goes a step further. He believes that Grenell could return to the Balkans and be involved in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.

"The mandate that Trump gave him means that he will deal with areas of great crisis, and we know that for Trump's administration, these negotiations represent a major challenge and in a way represent a crisis in Europe that must be resolved. So I think he has a broadly defined mandate of jurisdiction and he can very easily find a way to get involved in the whole process of the Belgrade - Pristina dialogue and negotiations, and I think that would be very beneficial and good for Serbia," assesses Kesic for Kosovo Online.

He points out that the initial moves of the new American president should be viewed exclusively in the context of broader US relations with key partners, and in Europe, that partner is Hungary.

"We have to view this issue in the context of broader US relations with key partners. As for Europe, we know that the most important partner will be Orban, and this definitely benefits Serbia because Serbia has very close relations with Hungary, very good cooperation. Likewise, Orban and Hungary absolutely have very close, good relations and cooperation with the Republic of Srpska. As the main partner for President Trump in Europe, Orban opens doors much wider for both Serbia and the Republic of Srpska," believes Kesic.

Asked how much Trump's latest statements about Greenland can be linked to Kosovo, Kesic says it is his "negotiation style" in matters important for US interests.

"Trump spoke semi-seriously about Greenland because it suits him to first open the topic of how the US could utilize the natural resources in Greenland. With those jokes, he opens negotiations, at least that's how he sees it. And he opens them by radicalizing positions, then whatever he offers looks much more acceptable than what he is currently saying," explains the analyst.

He adds that Trump was surprised by the reactions he produced.

"Even if we follow social media and what his son posted, then we see that there is a movement that seeks independence, and at the same time, a small number of people in Greenland see this as an opportunity to attract wider attention and then the Maga movement from America has now found a few people who want to represent that movement in Greenland," specifies Kesic.

He sees the background of such statements in better positioning in the negotiations about trade exchanges between the US and Greenland, Panama, and Canada.

"That's his style of negotiating. He comes out with a radical stance, then starts various initiatives to begin serious negotiations and 'hard bargains' with the idea that he will pull the best possible deal from the other side. And I see that such is the situation with Greenland, Panama, and Canada. He hopes for a much better deal with these countries, especially regarding American products that are exported there, but also for some products that are much cheaper and enter America. He is now threatening tariffs. Simply put, Trump positions himself so that everyone in the international community sees him as unpredictable, in a way a radical disruptor of the international order, and because of that, he thinks that it opens a much wider space for negotiations so that he might achieve something that would otherwise be hard to obtain," concludes Kesic.

Bias and Pragmatism

Associate at the Center for Social Stability, Marko Miskeljin believes Serbia can expect less bias with the new American administration, a desire to listen to both sides, but also much greater pragmatism in stopping unilateral moves by Pristina's institutions.

"What we can expect is better contact. Far from it that the contact between Serbia and the leadership with the outgoing administration was bad, but there was simply too much difference and there was that dose of bias from the Democratic establishment. On the other hand, what we can expect, informed by Trump's first term, is primarily pragmatism and a willingness to listen to our side, which is something we have not often had the opportunity," says Miskeljin for Kosovo online.

Improved direct relations with the leading figures of Trump's administration will, he is convinced, also enable a much more pragmatic approach by the US in resolving the issues of the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, as well as in stopping the escalation in Kosovo.

"From that perspective, we can expect that such unilateral moves by the temporary institutions in Pristina will be sanctioned more often. Perhaps the best example is the fall of the first Kurti government," emphasizes Miskeljin.

Therefore, he sees it as "logical to expect" Grenell's return to the Balkans.

"It is logical to expect that Richard Grenell, as someone who is quite familiar with the entire situation and as someone who has contacts with both sides, be involved precisely because of the position he was given by President Trump, his envoy for special areas. Certainly, if the primary goal of the US is the stability of the region, then it is also a goal to send a trusted man. And there are few people who have greater trust from Donald Trump than Richard Grenell," specifies Miskeljin.