Waiting for the Epilogue: Seventeen years since the Declaration of Kosovo's Independence

Seventeen years after adopting the Declaration of Independence, Kosovo is still not on the list of United Nations member states. Analysts believe a key reason for this is Serbia's non-recognition, despite persistent persuasion from Kosovo's allies. Kosovo's ambitions were high in 2008, marked by what one interlocutor described as excessive self-confidence. Since then, the attention of Kosovo’s partners has been diverted to other topics and crises, and the new geopolitical climate does not provide any guarantees.

According to World Bank data, Kosovo has the lowest Gross Domestic Product in the region and the highest unemployment rate, with only 37 percent of the working-age population employed.
It ranks last in Europe in terms of average monthly income and is the poorest in the region and Europe as a whole.

Citizens in Pristina, speaking to Kosovo Online reporters, say that expectations from 17 years ago have been only partially met.

"There are no problems, life goes on normally. There are still some desires of the people that need to be fulfilled. The people are partially satisfied; something more needs to be done," one of them stated.
Kosovo has been recognized by less than half of the United Nations member states, specifically 83 countries. It is not recognized by five European Union member states—Greece, Cyprus, Slovakia, Romania, and Spain—and without their approval, it cannot join the European family of nations.
Kosovo is a member of the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, World Customs Organization, CEFTA, the Olympic Committee, and an associate member of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly... However, the doors to the Council of Europe, OSCE, Interpol, UNESCO, etc., remain closed to Kosovo.

Milan Igrutinovic, a research associate at the Institute for European Studies, told Kosovo Online that the topic of Kosovo has been lost in the forest of numerous crises that have shaken America first since 2008 and then Europe, making it difficult to see if anything serious can change, as everyone remains entrenched in their positions.

"It started with their excessive self-confidence, believing that their decision was strong enough that Serbia would simply come to terms with it in the relatively near future and somehow agree to it through certain negotiations," Igrutinovic points out.

He reminds us that the historical moment when Kosovo declared independence was before the global economic crisis, at the peak of American power, when the Iraq War was far from over, but when the USA still believed it could reshape regional arrangements in the Middle East at will.

"In the end, it turned out not to be the case. With the collapse of the Bush administration, which ended with the onset of the global economic crisis and during Obama's two terms, America turned more inward. On the other hand, the global public was not really interested in something that it perceived as American adventurism, with the bombing of the FRY in 1999 and aggression that was outside the mandate of the Security Council and did not have broad support from the wider global community. Although in Europe, most countries supported it at some point," our interlocutor says.

Serbia, he emphasizes, found a global platform through the United Nations to show that the unilateral declaration of Kosovo's independence could not pass so quickly and established bilateral partnerships with Russia and China, which have all validated this stance.

"The European Union hoped that through its mediation starting in 2010 it could persuade Serbia even though the EU maintained some formal status of neutrality, but in essence, the European Commission treats Kosovo as an independent state in practice and on the ground. With the dragging of EU enlargement to the Western Balkans, with economic crises and the migrant crisis that occupied attention, with the crisis in Ukraine which eventually escalated into open war when Russia attacked Ukraine in 2021, the Kosovo issue and the Balkan topic somehow got lost in all that. And the positions remained, as they were about 15 years ago, not much changed in relation to that," Igrutinovic states.

Serbia's position, he indicates, is completely legitimate both in terms of international law and its Constitution.

"This position also has wide democratic support, and it is hard to imagine now any party or group of parties that would publicly say: 'we are for a significant change in this policy'. With this social consensus, foreign interested partners, and ultimately even Pristina itself, must reckon," our interlocutor says.

The positioning of Kosovo on the international scene, he assesses, will continue to progress slowly because relations on the ground have deteriorated over the last 15 years, primarily due to the specific policies of Albin Kurti and his, as he says, drive to be the completely dominant political leader in Kosovo who tries to consolidate his power internally with a 'policy of defending the sovereignty and integrity of Kosovo.'"

"It is then difficult to see how, with such a political structure, a relaxation of relations on the ground and a relaxation of the positions of the Serbian community could be negotiated, primarily to create conditions in Serbia to say: 'well, these relations are not so bad, we can live with this, let's see if we can recognize each other in some kind of friendly, neighborly, amicable relations at some point to settle things on these terms.' And as long as it is so, I think it is very illusory to expect any change of positions in Belgrade," evaluates Igrutinovic.

Zoran Savic from the NGO Aktiv says it is too early to speculate on whether the upcoming geopolitical changes will affect whether a solution for the status of Kosovo will be reached sooner or later.

He assesses that the key reason why Kosovo does not have full independence after 17 years is that Serbia has not recognized the independence of Kosovo.

Although, on the other hand, we have the Brussels Agreement, which has effectively abolished the institutions of the Republic of Serbia in Kosovo, where a large number of people have been integrated into the Kosovo system, we still do not have official independence for Kosovo. There are also five

European Union members that have not recognized Kosovo, which is also one of the reasons," Savic stated for Kosovo Online.

He reminds us that the most recent recognition Kosovo received was from Israel, four years ago.
According to analyst Shkelzen Maliqi, Kosovo has failed to finalize its statehood in 17 years, and a major failure was not seizing the opportunity last year to join the Council of Europe.

"Joining the Council of Europe would have been almost a prelude to recognition in the United Nations, as it would have involved voting by EU member states that do not recognize Kosovo," Maliqi told Kosovo Online. He highlights that Albin Kurti refused to send the European proposal for the statute of the Community of Serb Municipalities for assessment to the Constitutional Court, which was a major government failure.

"They could not gain any recognition, and the dialogue process is blocked even though, on paper, everything is more or less resolved," he adds.

Regarding whether the new geopolitical circumstances will favor Kosovo or not, Maliqi says it is a big question "because of the chaos created by the American administration, not only economically but also in political relations."

"The question is whether NATO will survive, whether there will be other turbulences, when the war in Ukraine will end... There are many unknowns and anything can happen," Maliqi states. As for domestic success, today Kosovo sees Mazlum Baraliu, a university professor from Pristina, because, he says, in 17 years its institutions have succeeded in enhancing democracy and enacting the most advanced laws.

He also assesses that Kosovo has proven to be a stabilizing factor in the Balkans.

"What is lacking and what every government should engage more in are economic development and social stability. In recent years, especially in 2015, there was a significant departure of young people of all nationalities and communities from Kosovo due to economic problems. This is a negative process that needs to be addressed with better policies by the incoming government. We are now the poorest country in Europe, and the lack of human resources is our greatest shortcoming. This is a component that affects the economic development of the country and will be needed by Kosovo in the future to reduce its developmental lag compared to other countries in Europe and the world," Baraliu stated for Kosovo Online.

With the new geopolitical circumstances, he believes, it will be more difficult for Kosovo.

"I think it will be harder because politicians in Kosovo, Serbia, and the entire Balkans think we are some kind of factors, but actually, we are not in terms of the world geopolitics that is happening around us. We are no factor either as the Balkans or individually. We are small both as nations and as countries and insignificant. Therefore, we need to be mindful to align ourselves with certain trends of world globalization and to have good mutual relations, since we are neighbors, otherwise, as underdeveloped, we will be prey for others. We must be careful and wise in conducting diplomacy and foreign policy, each country, especially here I mean Kosovo and Serbia," Baraliu points out.