What happens when politicians arbitrarily count Serbs while the census fails to provide credible data?

The census in Kosovo, which was largely boycotted by Serbs in the north, could not provide reliable data about their numbers. However, Kosovo's Prime Minister and his deputy, even before the final results of this flawed census were published, estimated that there are fewer Serbs in Kosovo than Albanians in Serbia. According to Kosovo Online’s interviewees, this kind of counting is a clear indication that the Kosovo government intends to continue avoiding the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities. In the long term, they argue, the goal of the authorities in Pristina is to render Serbs invisible, stripping them of any rights.

Written by: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

No relevant answer to the question of how many Serbs live in Kosovo can be found in the data collected during the census conducted in April and May this year. This is confirmed by the statement of Avni Kastrati, the director of the Kosovo Agency for Statistics, who acknowledged that only part of the population in the north was recorded, while another portion boycotted the census.

Nevertheless, according to Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s calculations made ten days ago, Serbs make up 4% of Kosovo's population.

"On several occasions, I had to tell our Western friends: ‘Do you realize that half the time we spend talking is about Serbs in Kosovo?’ Half the population in Kosovo are women, not Serbs. Sometimes, if you don't know the situation on the ground, you might think that Serbs make up 40% rather than 4%. I respect them even if they are just 1%, but still, there must be some democratic measures. We can’t spend half of every meeting talking about 4% of the population," Kurti told Sarajevo's Hayat TV.

He also claimed that there are more Albanians in Serbia, from Subotica to Presevo, than there are Serbs in Kosovo, and that proportionally there are more Albanians in Montenegro than Serbs in Kosovo. He particularly emphasized that "the Serbian language in Kosovo is official at all levels of administration and in every municipality."

Kosovo Deputy Prime Minister Besnik Bislimi joined the “counting” of Serbs, stating on the social media platform X that there are more Albanians in Serbia than Serbs in Kosovo. However, neither he nor Kurti clarified the sources of their calculations.

Quick Political Points and Long-Term Goals

Commenting on the statements of Kosovo officials, Petar Ristanovic, a research associate at the Institute for Serbian Culture in Leposavic, told Kosovo Online that these remarks reflect continuity in Kurti and Bislimi’s statements and actions over an extended period. Their goal, he said, is to prevent the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities or any umbrella organization for Serbs in Kosovo.

"On the other hand, the long-term goal is to make the remaining Serbs in Kosovo invisible and deny them any rights. This is just one way of discriminating against them, aiming to make life so difficult for Serbs in Kosovo that they are forced to leave. In the short term, these statements should also be viewed in the context of election campaigns, as harsh statements about Serbs are the easiest way to score political points in Kosovo," Ristanovic stated.

Nikola Markovic, a researcher at the Institute for International Politics and Economics in Belgrade, agreed, stating that whenever politicians begin counting Serbs, it indicates an intention by the government in Pristina to avoid implementing agreements, particularly the obligation to form the Community of Serb Municipalities.

"Last year, they announced that 150 apartments would be taken from Serbs in northern Mitrovica. Now, similar intentions are appearing in other northern cities, providing no guarantees for any coexistence between Albanians and Serbs," Markovic told Kosovo Online.

Markovic also noted that the efforts by Kosovo’s political elite to significantly reduce the number of Serbs are supported by calls for a new "Operation Storm" against Serbs, as voiced by Selim Pacoli, brother of the president of the Alliance for a New Kosovo, Behgjet Pacoli.

Census Data and Manipulation

According to the census data presented by Avni Kastrati, Kosovo has 1,602,512 residents. Islamic faith dominates, with Orthodox Christians accounting for 2.31%, Catholics 1.75%, 0.5% identifying as non-religious, and 1.5% declining to answer.

The Kosovo Agency for Statistics reported that in four northern municipalities, out of 7,920 registered residents, 5,594 are Serbs and 1,489 are Albanians. Gracanica municipality has 18,486 residents (8,623 Albanians and 8,650 Serbs), Ranilug 2,481 (2,349 Serbs and 129 Albanians), Partes 3,240 (3,221 Serbs and 13 Albanians), Klokot 3,041 (1,702 Albanians and 1,330 Serbs), and Strpce 10,771 (8,080 Serbs and 2,626 Albanians).

Commenting on these figures, Ristanovic stated that they realistically mean nothing but can be manipulated by Kosovo politicians to serve their own goals.

"The census does not provide answers to the most important questions: how many Serbs are there, how much has their number decreased over the previous period, where has the number of Serbs stagnated, and where is it decreasing? We did not get such answers simply because a significant portion of Serbs boycotted the census. Similarly, we also lack significant information about the number of Albanians," Ristanovic concluded.

According to the census, Albanians number around 1.6 million, a decrease of about 10% compared to the previous census. However, these figures are highly questionable, as many Albanians from Kosovo live abroad, raising significant doubts about how many are officially registered in Kosovo.

“Manipulation of census data in practice could mean denying the number of Serbs and reducing their percentage in the population, providing evidence that, for example, there are equal numbers of Serbs and Albanians in Gracanica, while only a few thousand Serbs live in northern Kosovo. This aims to deny Serbs the right to any autonomy in organizing and to any form of special protection, which exists in law but is not implemented in practice. Ultimately, this seeks to continue systemic discrimination against Serbs to force them to emigrate,” said historian Petar Ristanovic.

As a historian, Ristanovic also noted that in the past 70 years, there has practically been no census in Kosovo that was not controversial, whose data were not disputed, and which was not later used and abused for political purposes.

Regardless of the census data, Nikola Markovic considers it questionable how many Albanians live in Kosovo, as a significant number reside in the diaspora.

“A large number of people returned just to be counted in Kosovo. On the other hand, as for Serbs, they didn’t want to participate in the census because of the intentions of the so-called Kosovo state towards them in the past period, which is understandable. If you have repression against a nation and you distort signed agreements and refuse to implement them, how can you expect anyone to conduct a proper census?” Markovic emphasized.

He added that if indicators like the number of mobile phones or the amount of bread needed to feed the population are analyzed, the Albanian population is not 1.6 million as claimed in Pristina but significantly smaller.

“At the beginning of 2024, visas were lifted, and Kosovo Albanians gained access to Western European countries. It’s estimated that in just the first two months, between 80,000 and 90,000 people left Kosovo,” Markovic stated.

Analyst Aleksandar Gudzic warned that Pristina might attempt to use census results for certain political manipulations.

According to Gudzic, the last relevant and legitimate census in Kosovo was conducted in 1981.

“Albanians boycotted the census in 1991. In 2001, when the census was supposed to take place, it didn’t happen as it was only two years after the war. In 2011, when a census was conducted, Serbs largely boycotted it in many areas of Kosovo,” Gudzic told Kosovo Online.

He emphasized that this year’s census showed that Kosovo is a region experiencing depopulation.

“There are more than 150,000 fewer residents. That says something. Will the official authorities in Pristina use the census results for political manipulations and games? I think they will,” Gudzic said.

Since a certain number of Serbs also boycotted this year’s census and enumerators failed to visit some households, Gudzic noted that this could result in a reduced budget for municipalities. He further emphasized that “the census has been a tool for political manipulation and constructs by one side or the other for decades.”

“Perhaps the best example is from 2011, when Serbs in Gracanica, in the municipality of Gracanica, partially boycotted the census. That census showed, as I recall, that there were 10,000 Serbs in Gracanica. This year, when the census was conducted and Serbs participated, it showed there were more Serbs. Consequently, there will be a larger budget and opportunities for the municipality to work on infrastructure projects that will improve the quality of life for residents,” Gudzic concluded.