What will be the biggest challenges for the new Government of Serbia regarding Kosovo?

There is no doubt that Serbia faces a challenging year when it comes to Kosovo, and the new government will be confronted with numerous challenges related to this issue, ranging from the implementation of the Ohrid Agreement to attempts to fully incorporate the Franco-German plan into Chapter 35 of the negotiation framework with the European Union, Kosovo Online interlocutors point out. They have different expectations regarding whether 2024 could be crucial for the resolution of the Kosovo issue, but they agree that increased pressure on both Belgrade and Pristina is expected in order to achieve a solution.

The European Envoy for Dialogue, Miroslav Lajcak, has already set the end of January as the deadline for formalizing the Agreement on the normalization process, and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic stated that he expected the most intense pressure regarding Kosovo this and next month.

Key representatives of the outgoing government believed to be a part of the new Prime Minister's cabinet after the December parliamentary elections, where the list gathered around the Serbian Progressive Party won a convincing victory, asserting that the policy regarding Kosovo will continue to be bound by the Constitution. They state that the fight for national interests will be based on facts and arguments and that the primary concern will be the well-being of the Serbs in Kosovo.

Serbia's Ambassador to the US, Marko Djuric, told Kosovo Online that the country's priority in 2024, regarding Kosovo, would be the preservation of the survival and existence of the Serbs adding that it was crucial for the pressure on the Albin Kurti Government to continue from the United States due to the non-compliance with agreements, along with a demand for a rational and peaceful approach to resolving relations between Belgrade and Pristina.

Research fellow at the Institute for International Politics and Economics, Aleksandar Mitic, tells Kosovo Online that the new Government of Serbia can expect a very challenging year due to pressures from various sides regarding Kosovo and various other issues, such as alignment with foreign policy.

"It is crucial for Belgrade to remain definitively firm on the defense of what it has defined as 'red lines', which is no de facto or de jure recognition of Kosovo. This is especially important in this process since what is not sought is de jure recognition but rather de facto recognition. In my opinion, this would mean rejecting the major part or some crucial elements of the Franco-German plan", Mitic says.

According to him, the Franco-German proposal "implies renunciation of Kosovo".

"If that happens, after that, any 'red lines' are no longer relevant, including the issue of the United Nations, and especially the issue of de jure recognition. It seems to me that Belgrade's 'red lines' are already set very, very low, and if they were jeopardized, it would represent an additional problem", Mitic believes.

He emphasizes that Belgrade is under various types of pressure, both regarding alignment with a common foreign policy and various other hybrid threats.

"However, the fact is that we must stop the method of making concessions under pressure in these hybrid crises caused very clearly and coordinated by both Kurti and the Quint. I expect a very difficult year for Belgrade, but I hope for a much firmer stance that will not jeopardize these fundamental lines precisely because we are facing a year after which there could be more serious, not only geopolitical changes but also political changes in Europe, which can support Belgrade's positions", Mitic concludes.

The new Government of Serbia faces numerous challenges regarding the Kosovo issue, with one of the greatest being the attempt to incorporate the obligations from the Ohrid Agreement, i.e., the Franco-German plan in its entirety, into Chapter 35 of the negotiations with the European Union, sociologist Vladimir Vuletic says for Kosovo Online.

"At that point, we would find ourselves in a situation where one of our strategic goals and policies, which is the path to the EU, is called into question. If we agree to that, then our second strategic goal would also be compromised, and, in general, the entire policy of Serbia, which is currently balanced not only on the international level but also balancing those two key goals around which, in the end, there are different divisions in Serbia. If you question that, then it's no longer just a problem for the government; it's a problem for the entire country because you find yourself in a situation where you have conflicts that could lead us in an uncertain direction", Vuletic believes.

He points out that it is important to achieve normalization of relations, stability in the region, peace, and a normal flow of people and ideas.

"But the essence is also that you cannot allow what has been said so many times, and what Pristina expects in a way, and that is the recognition of Kosovo by Serbia. This issue has been revolving for years and will continue. It is about reaching some kind of compromise that would secure everything we talked about, and that compromise, of course, does not imply the recognition of Kosovo by Serbia because then it is not a compromise. It is actually the entire squaring of the circle when it comes to Belgrade's policy towards Pristina", our interlocutor notes.

He points out that it remains to be seen whether, primarily in the capitals of the United States, the EU, and leading European countries, Serbia's commitment in that direction will be viewed favorably.

"There is no doubt that there are those who view things in that way, who see that Serbia is also a part of the solution to the problem. Now they just need to convince Pristina to be a part of the solution to the problem. Or, on the other hand, other currents and factions that exist may have greater power and try to force Serbia to do what it cannot do. Then you will have a heightened situation. Where we were, we will continue, now it is only, of course, about coming into this situation to see what will happen in the elections in the United States because we witnessed that the Trump administration had a somewhat different view of resolving the relations between Belgrade and Pristina", Vuletic says.

Political commentator and journalist Bosko Jaksic believes that 2024 might be the year of resolution regarding the Kosovo issue, perhaps even faster than expected, considering, as he emphasizes, the statement of the European Envoy for Dialogue, Miroslav Lajcak, who said that everything should be formalized by the end of January.

"The Europeans are in a hurry as much as the Americans, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, clearly says that Serbia and Kosovo know what their obligations are and that they must fulfill them. So, on the one hand, there are pressures and increasingly precise demands with narrowed time frames. For Kosovo, this means final approval for the formation of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities, as formulated by the European plan. The fact that the draft of the CSM Statute is being sent to the Constitutional Court of Kosovo, it seems to me, is not an argument for any delay, especially for Europeans", Jaksic emphasizes for Kosovo Online.

When it comes to Serbia, Jaksic continues, unconditional support for the Ohrid plan is imminent, which, he reminds, has point 4 as the most important, predicting unhindered entry of Kosovo into all international organizations, including the United Nations and all agencies of the world organization.

"President Vucic was allowed to repeat during the pre-election campaign that Serbia will never recognize Kosovo, which ultimately no one is asking for, and that Kosovo has no place in the UN. It seems to me that these were European gifts to Vucic, and now the time has come to fulfill what he agreed to in February in Brussels and in March in Ohrid. On the other hand, the more positive one, is the growing political readiness of the EU for enlargement, which is a direct consequence of the war in Ukraine and in a way reminiscent of the circumstances under which Bulgaria and Romania were admitted to membership when that political factor was more significant than the criteria to be met for accession", Jaksic believes.

He adds that many of these issues will come to the forefront before the new Government of Serbia, and says that there are already some signals that more concrete work will be done to fulfill what is required of Belgrade.

"The agreement that from January 1 vehicles with Kosovo plates can enter Serbia is a small step but a significant signal that these problems will be solved. It seems to me that the next step ahead, and it will go quickly, is the repetition of elections in Kosovska Mitrovica, Leposavic, Zvecan, and Zubin Potok, with the participation of the Serbs. Therefore, the process is accelerating, there are no more stops as there were before, no more tolerance as during Angela Merkel's time. That is precisely why I conclude, without attributes of pessimism or optimism, that 2024 can be the year of resolution", Jaksic says.