What will the snap elections in France bring to that country, and what about our region?

In France, tomorrow's vote for the new parliament comes amidst the backdrop of President Emmanuel Macron calling for snap elections following poor results for his coalition in the European Parliament elections. The upcoming elections are perceived in various ways - as Macron's gamble with French democracy, potentially signaling the end of Macronism whether a new government is formed by the left or the right. Meanwhile, President Macron himself has warned that a victory by either the far-left or far-right could incite a civil war.

The first round of voting is tomorrow, but the makeup of the new French government won't be known until the second round on July 7. According to polls, in the first round, the right-wing National Rally is expected to lead with around 36% of the vote, followed by the left-wing National Front alliance (27 to 29%), while Macron's centrists would likely place third (19 to 22%). If no bloc secures an absolute majority, a technical government remains a possibility.

However, much attention is focused on the potential implications of these changes within France, the EU, and beyond if Jordan Bardella of the National Rally becomes prime minister.

Aleksandra Kolakovic, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Political Studies, emphasized that securing an absolute majority for the right-wing party is just one scenario.

"It's important to consider the results of the second round, where all those who receive more than 12.5% of the vote advance, creating the space for the final outcome. It's more likely that the National Rally will have the most seats in parliament but won't be able to form an absolute majority as current polls and research suggest," said Kolakovic.

She also noted that it's typical for right-wing parties, including in France, to partially or completely abandon some of their campaign promises once in power. Already, the National Rally is showing signs of distancing itself from Russia.

"In an effort to appeal to centrist voters, Marine Le Pen's party has significantly backed away from previously dominant ideas, including distancing itself from Russia," Kolakovic pointed out. "Bardella, in particular, has spoken about preventing Russia from threatening French national interests, citing instances in Africa. He has also expressed openness to aiding Ukraine in defense efforts without sending additional troops there. This represents a significant departure from previous foreign policy stances, including those of Emmanuel Macron."

Overall, the outcome of the French elections could potentially reshape both domestic politics within France and influence broader European and international relations, depending on who emerges victorious and their subsequent policies.

Regardless of which political force becomes predominant in the French parliament after the elections, as Kolakovic says, significant deviations from Paris' approach towards the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue should not be expected. She reminds that France operates under a presidential system where the president determines the country's foreign policy trajectory.

"Major powers, and France considers itself a major power, strongly adhere to their agendas and beliefs in shaping foreign policy. Political changes are more likely to be felt domestically rather than in foreign policy. The Belgrade-Pristina dialogue operates within a European framework. We have the Franco-German proposal that has passed through the European format and these main negotiations are conducted in Brussels. Despite the recent rise of the right-wing in the European elections, the leadership of the EU itself has not significantly changed. We see Ursula von der Leyen remaining at the helm of the European Commission, and while there are other faces, they belong to the same political group," Kolakovic states.

She further notes that for all right-wing parties, including those in France, a pattern repeats itself after elections where they partially or completely abandon the proclaimed goals stated during the campaign. She points out that the National Rally is already distancing itself from Russia.

"In an effort to appeal to centrist voters, Marine Le Pen's party has significantly abandoned some previously dominant ideas, including some antisemitic ones, and has emphasized distancing from Russia. Bardela stands out in particular with his speeches, stating that he will not allow Russia to jeopardize France's national interests. He also stated that, for example, he would not send additional troops or any troops to Ukraine, but is open to assisting Ukraine in its defense segment. This marks a significant departure from earlier stances on the main pole of foreign policy that also influences all others. However, this is not a very large deviation from what has actually been the foreign policy of Emmanuel Macron," our interlocutor emphasizes.

Journalist Ana Otasevic, a contributor to Mond Diplomatique, tells Kosovo online that the parliamentary elections in France have been seen as historic because, according to predictions, radical right-wing forces are expected to enter parliament in such large numbers for the first time. She notes that this will change the political landscape character in France and will certainly influence policies toward the Balkans and the European Union.

To what extent, she adds, remains to be seen, as it will depend on whether the right-wing gains an absolute majority.

The main characteristic of the party currently gaining significant support from the French, the National Rally, as she mentions regarding foreign policy, is their opposition to the expansion of the European Union.

"If this is one of their main ideas - that the EU is an opponent of national policies - you can already see how this option will relate to further EU enlargement, and also to the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, even though that dialogue is not related to them because it is led by European representatives. I don't believe this policy will significantly influence how a dialogue framework established will proceed in the future. I don't think political changes in France will significantly impact this dialogue because it is conducted at the European level, but the general tendency may lead to its dilution or relativization once the European perspective is not clearly outlined and is called into question. Ten years ago when I interviewed her, Marine Le Pen said that Serbia had no reason to join the European Union. She was also referring to the entire region, of course. This is the idea that the EU is a prison of nations, that it is anti-nationalistic, and that it destroys national identity," says Otasevic.

She explains that in French political life for decades, there have been two poles that shared the values of Charles de Gaulle's Fifth Republic.

"Now, a extreme option has broken into this tradition of political life, which could change a lot in terms of the logic of political life as we know it, with measures that are contrary to the Constitution or contrary to European laws. In European policy, there is definitely a tendency towards closure, strengthening borders, fear, and I would say distrust towards the closest surroundings, including the Balkan countries. This is the essence of the policy not only of this far-right party in France but also of others," says Otasevic.

The upcoming elections in France, she emphasizes, could lead to cohabitation, which some even consider desirable because President Emmanuel Macron's policies have been rejected, and he has long been unpopular in France.

"His idea of Macronism, or a strong center that would unite both left and right republican forces, has failed and now political life is being constituted in a different way. One of the main proposals of the National Rally is to introduce 'double borders,' meaning to restrict the free movement of foreign citizens within the Schengen zone, to establish much stronger controls at EU borders, to prevent illegal migrants from entering, and generally to tighten EU borders for asylum seekers, which is contrary to both European and international laws," says Otasevic.

However, she adds, the right-wing will have a struggle within France itself to demonstrate their ability to govern and confirm their legitimacy, primarily focusing on domestic rather than foreign policy issues.

"In this campaign, foreign policy is almost off the radar, although two issues significantly affect political life in France, namely the war in Ukraine and the Israeli attack on Gaza. These are what polarize the French. The Balkans are not mentioned, enlargement is not mentioned, and regarding Ukraine, the issue of EU enlargement is a geopolitical issue. The main message to voters revolves around questions related to citizen security - the impression that French citizens are not safe in their own country, that migrants almost threaten their existence if we listen to far-right parties, including the National Rally. According to them, France is threatened with serious dangers of losing its identity, being 'eaten up' by migrants of different religions, civilizations, and cultures. These are the main themes on which they score points," emphasizes our interlocutor.

Regarding the foreign front, she says that France today is shaken, its international role diminished, and it will not have the role it wanted to have as Macron's idea to impose himself as a leader after Angela Merkel has collapsed.

If the right-wing has a prime minister, according to the president of the association 'All Serbs in Paris' Sasa Pesic, that will affect France's internal rather than external policy more, but he points out that in the National Rally, Serbia may have much greater support than with President Emmanuel Macron's party.

Pesic says that generally Serbia has good relations with France and in recent years, these relations have been getting stronger, especially in the economy.

"Emanuel Macron, since coming to power, it seems to me that he hasn't done much to improve the position of Serbs in Kosovo and the Serbian issue related to Kosovo and Metohija. As for the National Rally, there may be more courageous and more friendly politicians there. Members of the National Rally in the European Parliament have spoken about the very difficult situation of Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija, such as Thierry Mariani and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, so in general, Serbs can certainly have much greater support in the National Rally than with Emmanuel Macron and his party," Pesic says for Kosovo Online

However, he points out that the parliament in France does not influence foreign policy, but there is expected to be great pressure regarding the adoption of some serious foreign policy decisions.

"According to the French Constitution, the president appoints the prime minister, and upon the prime minister's proposal, appoints ministers, so in the event that the National Rally wins and obtains a majority in the Assembly, it would be additional pressure on Macron, who has stated that he wants to remain in power until 2027. Regarding foreign policy related to Kosovo and Metohija, it is certain that the French president and ministers would be under pressure, but they will continue to make decisions they believe are good for France. Certainly, on some issues, they will have to talk with, as polls here say, future Prime Minister Jordan Bardella and people from the National Rally," says Pesic.

He emphasizes that the right-wing National Rally gained significant support from voters the moment it stopped talking only about immigration and included economic issues in its program, which concerns ordinary people a lot. According to Pesic's assessment, their success in the European Parliament elections in France was expected due to everything that has been happening in France in recent years and the way Emmanuel Macron has governed.

"Although he is an exceptionally brave president, perhaps one of the bravest in recent French history, his policy has been somewhat arrogant towards the French people, who have, in this way, also punished him with the record success of the right-wing in the European elections. He faced a number of crises such as the yellow vests, pension reform, protests by farmers, and large protests last year from parts of the population coming from immigration circles after the killing of a boy by the police. So, this was a normal combination of circumstances because the ruling party in France is losing popularity," Pesic notes.

He reminds that one of the Members of the European Parliament from the National Rally is Aleksandar Nikolic and that after the parliamentary elections in France, Andreja Kotarac, also of Serbian origin, will most likely enter the new term of the European Parliament from the same party.

"Some European parliamentarians will probably be elected as deputies in the French parliament, which will free up a place for Kotarac to also be one of the Members of the European Parliament," our interlocutor points out.