Whom did the All-Serbian Assembly encourage, anger, and frighten?

The gathering of Serbs from the region in Belgrade at the First All-Serbian Assembly and the draft Declaration on the Protection of National and Political Rights and the Common Future of the Serbian People have produced numerous reactions in the region. For Kosovo online interlocutors, these reactions are mostly expected, black-and-white narratives in which stereotypes from the past still prevail.

"Serbia has never changed. It was like this a century ago, and it continues today. The same way of thinking!" said the Vice President of the Democratic Party of Kosovo, Vlora Citaku.

Much further went the Chairman of the three-member Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Denis Becirovic, who described the All-Serbian Assembly as a "dangerous project of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic."

"The All-Serbian Assembly is a dangerous project of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, directly linked to Russia's attempts to destabilize Southeastern Europe and divert attention from Russian aggression against Ukraine," Becirovic said.

For the SDA, this gathering is a continuation of the "Greater Serbian project."

"The All-Serbian Assembly is a continuation of the Greater Serbian project, an attempt to dominate over other nations and an attack on the sovereignty of states that have suffered armed aggression by the Milosevic regime. The adopted declaration is a direct attack on Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Dayton Peace Agreement, and thus on stability and peace," said the largest Bosniak party in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The U.S. Embassy in Sarajevo quickly reacted, stating that the conclusions adopted at the All-Serbian Assembly do not represent the defense of the Dayton Agreement but, as they claim, a deliberate attack on that peace agreement and the state institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

"The conclusions adopted at the All-Serbian Assembly regarding the Dayton Peace Agreement and the independent state of Bosnia and Herzegovina are rooted in legal disinformation and riddled with mistakes," the U.S. Embassy in BiH said on the "X" social network account.

Similar sentiments were heard in Montenegro.

Bundestag MP Josip Juratovic told Podgorica's Pobjeda that the All-Serbian Assembly "should be taken seriously as a threat to peace in the Western Balkans."

U.S. Ambassador to Pristina Jeffrey Hovenier also spoke out against the Assembly. However, he was the most sincere.

"I have not had the opportunity to read all the reports related to the All-Serbian Assembly, but I understand that the language used says that Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia. I understand that this is their stance, but it is not the stance of any of us, it is not the stance of the United States, our Quint partners, or anyone else," Hovenier said.

Regional dynamics and red lines

Stefan Radojkovic, a researcher at the Institute for Political Studies, explains to Kosovo online that the negative reactions in the region to the All-Serbian Assembly and the Declaration are part of the "regional dynamics" and a consequence of Serbia's and Republic of Srpska's set "red lines."

"The messages we hear today from Sarajevo, and even from the Pristina administration, are an expression of their concern because they understand that slowly their key partners in the West are increasingly respecting Serbia's views, and thus also Republic of Srpska's. They realized that Serbia and RS have options if their voice is not respected," says Radojkovic.

He assesses reactions from Pristina as a narrative and rhetoric of political marketing that has existed among Albanians in Kosovo for decades.

"The point is that Serbia's policy today is contextualized in the contemporary period. That is, the policy being pursued today actually corresponds to the situation in international relations in recent years. What does not work in favor of the Albanians is that they are actually aware that their, Pristina's administration exists thanks to the support exclusively from the West. Since the West is no longer the only and most dominant actor in international relations, they are aware that their position is shaky and can change, of course not quickly, but over time. That's what they are trying to prevent now, and that's why this rhetoric, which has recently passed in the offices of the main international actors in the collective West, is becoming increasingly barren and probably will not have the impact it used to have a few years ago," he explains.

Describing the current geopolitical situation as a "changing world," he added that "frictions between great powers" represent not only a potential danger but also a potential opportunity.

Radojkovic emphasizes that in this context, two key messages from the Assembly should be considered.

"The 'red lines' have been sent and outlined. There is a general consensus below which they will not go, and that is the survival of the Serbian people and the survival of the institutions of the Serbian people, whether they are in BiH or in Serbia," Radojkovic believes.

He adds that a clear message has been sent that Serbia is ready for cooperation.

"In that sense, neither Sarajevo, nor Podgorica, nor Skopje have any reason to fear Serbia or Republic of Srpska. But that communication must be more substantive, that street must be two-way, not one-way as it usually was. Simply put, Serbia as an actor in the Western Balkans is one of the key actors, and that will not change regardless of changes in international relations," Radojkovic emphasizes.

Commenting on the negative reactions in the region to the All-Serbian Assembly, he assesses it as a "regional dynamic."

"The All-Serbian Assembly should not incite negative emotions in the region. However, we know from experience that the Bosniak people and their political representatives, and likewise the Kosovo Albanians and their political representatives, are wary of such institutionalization of cooperation among Serbs in the region, primarily because Serbs as an ethnic group are the most numerous. On the other hand, Serbia as a state is actually a regional, in the context of the Western Balkans, key actor. And then it is not good for their interests, or at least that is how they perceive it, for Republic of Srpska and Serbia to deepen, expand, and above all institutionalize their cooperation. Because this actually shows that Serbia and the Serbian people are aware of their strength and their potential not only for relations in the region but also at the international level," Radojkovic concluded.

Message to the international community

On the other hand, analyst from North Macedonia Risto Nikovski, in an interview for Kosovo online, says that national gatherings, if not directed against other peoples, should not concern anyone and emphasizes that the region has no reason to fear or worry because the messages from the first All-Serbian Assembly held in Belgrade were not directed at anyone in the Western Balkans but at the international community.

Nikovski adds that it seems that the Assembly was organized in support of Republic of Srpska after the adoption of the Resolution on Srebrenica in the United Nations.

"It seems that the messages were not directed at Pristina, Skopje, and Podgorica, but at the international community. It seems that this All-Serbian Assembly was convened in support of Republic of Srpska, especially after the United Nations Resolution on Srebrenica, and especially because of the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is not functioning at all," says Nikovski.

This explains with simple mathematics that Bosnia and Herzegovina is structured in such a way that it currently has three co-presidents, more than 130 ministers, 14 parliaments, and hundreds of delegates or advisors.

"This is a conglomerate that cannot function, and attempts are underway to make certain revisions to the Dayton Agreement, which Republic of Srpska does not accept," he adds.

He believes that there is general concern about the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the position of Republic of Srpska.

"I think that is the main reason, although it can be said that Serbia itself feels threatened in a way, because of the Resolution on Srebrenica and because of unresolved relations with Kosovo. So, from these aspects, this All-Serbian Assembly was convened," Nikovski believes.

Commenting on the gathering of all Serbs from the region and the adoption of the Declaration, Nikovski says that the Declaration has not yet been published because it needs to be adopted by both parliaments.

"But, generally, if such national assemblies are not against any third party, there is no obstacle for such a thing to happen. Let us remind, recently Edi Rama was in Athens and held a large rally there. Then he was in Italy, so if it is not directed against any other party, in principle, it is acceptable and should not bother anyone," concludes Nikovski.

Silent Loudness

Historian Bogdan Zivkovic assesses that one of the key messages of the Assembly, which is not pleasant to the ears of either Pristina or the West, is that Serbia is not giving up the fight to preserve its territorial integrity.

"It is clear that Albanian nationalism currently benefits a lot from this Western stance towards Serbia and wants to present itself as a credible partner and as someone who is a victim of Serbian nationalism. In that regard, of course, it was logical and to be expected that there would be negative reactions from the Albanian national corpus to this Assembly," Zivkovic told Kosovo online.

He adds that the key rhetoric of Pristina is to equate the north of Kosovo with Republic of Srpska.

"Albanians in their propaganda claims often try to equate the North of Kosovo with Republic of Srpska. And of course, it is logical that these are their reactions. What is more important than that is how the West will react to it, whether based on these reactions they will gain support from the West or not. For now, it seems to me that there is really no objection from Western addresses regarding this Assembly and that is crucial for regional repercussions. So, it all depends on whether the West will support these aspirations or not," says Zivkovic.

Commenting on reactions in Montenegro, he specifies that the Democratic Party of Socialists of Milo Djukanovic tried to use the Assembly to offer themselves for a return to power by claiming that Serbian representatives degraded Montenegro.

"Of course, this is a propaganda claim, but what is important to say is that many, including the DPS, believe that the West is listening to this Assembly," says Zivkovic.

He adds that Belgrade was disappointed by the decision of the leadership of Montenegro to support the Resolution on Srebrenica, and that the messages from the representatives at the Assembly show that there are two political approaches among Serbs in this country.

One is represented by Andrija Mandic, who believes that despite supporting the resolution, Serbs should remain in the current government and thus fight for their rights through the system, and the other is Milan Knezevic, who does not rule out leaving the government.

"In some dichotomy, it seems to me that official Belgrade gave a little more support to Knezevic," explains Zivkovic.

He believes that one of the implicit messages from the Assembly is that due to the vote on the Resolution on Srebrenica, the Government of Montenegro should now make some concession to the Serbian community, such as the adoption of dual citizenship.

"In that regard, Andrija Mandic explicitly spoke about the introduction of dual citizenship. That is a very sensitive issue. I doubt that it will come to that, but I certainly think that the message after this assembly will be that Serbs will somehow increase their demands in the political struggle in Montenegro. Whether they will be successful or not remains to be seen, but it seems to me that this more moderate approach of Mandic's is more purposeful and may yield greater results, that if Knezevic with his radicalism can lead to a situation where European movements turn to other actors and form a government with them," Zivkovic believes.

Interpretations of the Declaration

Historian Bojan Arbutina believes that the unity shown at the All-Serbian Assembly has raised alarms for many because the adopted Declaration defines problems and solutions that will lead to a better position for the Serbian people in the state and in the region.

"Generally, the Serbian people have always been under attack from certain peoples in the surrounding area. The very fact that we managed to unite our entire nation in the sense of coming together, discussing, reflecting on our past, present, and future certainly has raised some alarms in the surrounding area. And indeed, these alarms are also triggered by some more innocuous situations that are happening in Serbia, such as strengthening the army, police, rule of law, economic and economic progress," says Arbutina for Kosovo online.

Therefore, according to him, it was expected that many politicians in the region would interpret the conclusions of the Declaration, which define problems and solutions for a better position of the Serbian people in the region, in a different way from what was stated.

"These views coming from Pristina, Podgorica, especially and Sarajevo and Zagreb are views that interpret that Declaration through a prism of the past and what happened. But we can freely say that they misinterpreted as endangering their own interests a text that deals with culture, identity, and rights and freedoms," emphasizes Arbutina.

He claims that Pristina and Podgorica build their identities on anti-Serb sentiment and anti-Serb theses.

"From Pristina, it comes from people who formed a para-state, who are secessionists. Of course, any mention of Serbian culture, tradition, spirituality, leads them to a situation where they have to react. And there is a loss of political logic that something should be kept silent about, but rather it moves into an open attack. That is also the case with Podgorica. With Sarajevo and Zagreb, we have decades of experience in these confrontations, so this is a very expected reaction from our neighbors, in line with the heated atmosphere that has been following us since the beginning of the year, especially after the adoption of the Resolution on the so-called genocide in Srebrenica," Arbutina assessed.

He believes that the Declaration was important because of the current geopolitical, but also security situation in the region.

"It seems to me that the Balkan region is beginning to boil, and that is why it was very important for our people living in this entire area to adopt this Declaration," he emphasizes.

According to him, the All-Serbian Assembly was primarily a message to Serbs.

"And that is the most important message that was sent. The message of unity was sent because all political representatives of our people, all representatives of our associations, the Serbian Orthodox Church gathered at that Assembly, and the message was sent that the authorities, our authorities, have identified the most urgent problems we face. It is the annulment of our identity, our culture, the deprivation of our cultural heritage, the denial of our Cyrillic script, the denial of political freedoms...," says Arbutina.

At the same time, he states, a message was sent to neighbors that Serbia and Republic of Srpska will decisively defend the rights of their people.

"The message to our neighbors is that the state of Serbia, that is, the Republic of Serbia and Republic of Srpska, will decisively defend the rights of our people in Serbia and Republic of Srpska, but also in the region. That we will defend the rights of our people to political freedoms, to their culture, tradition, that we will preserve, if we talk about Kosovo and Metohija, our medieval monasteries, our spiritual heritage, cultural heritage. If we talk about Croatia, that we will preserve our Cyrillic script which has been under attack for decades, if we just remember Vukovar, the outbreaks of Cyrillic signs, and simply, when it comes to the Federation of BiH, we will not forget the crimes committed against Serbs and we will restore dignity to the Serbian people wherever they live. And this declaration does not only apply to our people in the Balkans, but to our people wherever they live in the world," concludes Arbutina.