Why is Pristina insisting on Russian influence over Belgrade?

The visit of the Serbian Patriarch to Moscow, the possible attendance of the Serbian President at a military parade, and the increasingly likely territorial outcome of the war in Ukraine are, for Pristina, sufficient signals to once again accuse Belgrade of acting under the strong “embrace” of Russia. Kosovo officials continue to repeat a narrative pleasing to Western ears, sources told Kosovo Online. Yet, they warn that at this moment, only Russia benefits from new conflicts in Europe, which would equally harm both Albanians and Serbs.

Written by: Djordje Barovic

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Kosovo officials have repeatedly warned of Russia’s so-called “malign influence” on Belgrade.

These claims were recently reiterated by both President Vjosa Osmani and acting Prime Minister Albin Kurti.

In an interview with Finland’s public broadcaster, Osmani said that an “unjust peace in Ukraine” would send the wrong message to countries seeking “territorial gains,” adding that Serbia “has always acted in accordance with Russia’s wishes.”

Kurti was equally direct, describing Serbian Patriarch Porfirije’s visit to Moscow as proof of a “strategic partnership between authoritarian regimes.”

“This is not religious diplomacy, but a strategic partnership of authoritarian regimes that puts the region at serious risk,” Kurti said, adding that the Serbian Orthodox Church “has long played an active political role.”

He also noted that “explicit alignment in the meeting transcript is revealing – especially ahead of President Aleksandar Vucic’s upcoming visit in May.”

Even President Vucic acknowledged that the West views any trip to Moscow unfavorably, especially one for the 80th anniversary of the victory over fascism.

“Of course, Europe does not look favorably upon a trip to Moscow. That’s no great secret. I never hide anything, and I speak about it openly and transparently with everyone,” Vucic stated following a meeting with European Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos in Belgrade.

Narratives and Realism

Marko Savkovic, Senior Advisor at the ISAC Fund, told Kosovo Online that Pristina benefits from perpetuating the idea that Serbia is Russia’s most reliable ally in the region—but that Western perception is more nuanced.

Commenting on Pristina’s claims of ongoing Russian hybrid influence, Savkovic explained that such statements are a consistent element of Kosovo officials’ messaging, though certain actions by Belgrade offer openings for these allegations.

“In the current international context, Pristina has a strong interest in maintaining the image of Serbia as Russia’s closest ally in the region. They want to keep that perception alive, and to be fair, our side sometimes offers reasons for those claims,” Savkovic said.

He reminded that Serbia is the only country on the European continent that has not imposed sanctions on Russia or joined efforts to isolate it.

“This has been a constant—well before the war in Ukraine. Sometimes that view gains traction, sometimes it doesn’t. I believe Western countries approach this with a level of sobriety, understanding Serbia’s unique position. Still, Belgrade’s actions often reinforce existing skepticism among European officials regarding Serbia’s EU membership prospects,” Savkovic emphasized.

Osmani expressed concern that a territorial outcome to the war in Ukraine could embolden others seeking “territorial gains.”

Savkovic agreed that such an outcome is problematic but plausible, especially given the worsening battlefield conditions for Ukraine.

“The notion that peace can be achieved by ceding territory is problematic from an international law perspective,” he noted.

He warned that the idea of Ukraine accepting Russia’s annexation of occupied territories sets a dangerous precedent—that power, not principle, dictates outcomes in international relations. And in current conditions, he added, Ukraine may ultimately be forced to concede territory to end the war.

When asked whether this logic could be applied to Kosovo, Savkovic said that, in such an analogy, Serbia would be cast as a “small Russia” and rewarded with part of Kosovo’s territory.

Still, he pointed to significant differences between the Ukraine crisis and Kosovo.

“For years, regardless of who has been in power, Serbia has insisted on these differences and highlighted violations of international law—from 1999 through to Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence in 2008. However, Kosovo’s leadership seeks to establish the narrative that Kosovo is indivisible, sovereign, and not something that can be bargained away for Serbia’s recognition,” Savkovic concluded.

Political Influence and Caution

University professor and former diplomat Bljerim Canaj has no doubt that Russia holds political influence over Serbia, but also warns that any future conflict in the Balkans would serve Russia’s interests.

Speaking to Kosovo Online, Canaj said Kosovo’s warnings about Russian influence are partly political rhetoric, but also stem from legitimate concern.

“It’s known that Russia has strong political influence in Serbia. It’s also known that any conflict, anywhere, would suit Russia. That’s why this topic is both politically useful and also justified if there are genuine fears of that influence,” Canaj stated.

He stressed that Serbian officials’ visits to Moscow are especially problematic due to the sanctions imposed on Russia.

“When Russia is under sanctions, and Serbia remains the only European country maintaining contact, that’s a concern. Especially knowing that any conflict would benefit Russia, including one in the Balkans, all of us—Albanians and Serbs alike—should be cautious about that influence,” Canaj warned.

Alibi and Strategic Framing

On the other end of the spectrum is Nikola Vujinovic, a security studies researcher, who sees Pristina’s emphasis on “Russian influence” as a tool to gain Western sympathy and as an alibi for violating the rights of Kosovo Serbs.

“In today’s world, in 2025, Russian influence is viewed as ‘evil influence.’ That becomes the justification for any political action taken against a community alleged to be under such influence,” Vujinovic told Kosovo Online.

“If you claim that Serbs are under Russian influence, then anything you do to them is seen as justified—and you gain support from the collective West. Whether you’re violating human rights, engaging in political repression, destroying property, or depriving people of basic needs—all you have to do is say, ‘They’re under Russian influence,’ and you’re allowed to do whatever you want.”

“And it’s not just Kosovo Albanians—this applies to other regional actors targeting Serbs too,” he concluded.

Responding to Albin Kurti’s assertion that Serbia maintains “strategic-level” cooperation with Russia, security analyst Nikola Vujinovic emphasized that Serbia also holds similar partnerships with other global powers, including China, France, and the United States.

“I believe it is very positive to have a strategic partnership with a power like Russia, especially when it comes to Kosovo and Metohija, where Russia supports our positions. Let us not forget that Serbia also has strategic partnerships with many other countries—China, France, the United States. That is an excellent instrument of foreign policy,” said Vujinovic.

He added that Pristina is threatened by Serbia's strong international standing.

“The fact is that the so-called Kosovo government in Pristina is not comfortable with Serbia having strong foreign policy allies like the Russian Federation, and it will continue to portray that as something negative or malicious,” Vujinovic noted.

Commenting on criticism from Pristina regarding the recent visit of Serbian Patriarch Porfirije to Moscow, Vujinovic described it as an additional boost to the overall relationship between Serbia and Russia.

“If Patriarch Porfirije, through his influence, authority, and fraternal ties with the Moscow Patriarchate, can help the Kremlin better understand Serbia’s interests—not only in Kosovo and Metohija but throughout the region—I support that. To attack such an initiative is merely a political maneuver by opponents of Serbian national interests,” Vujinovic concluded.