Stanic: Serbian exports to Kosovo would exceed pre-blockade levels if Pristina opened all crossings

Bojan Stanic, Assistant Director of the Strategic Analysis Sector at the Serbian Chamber of Commerce, says that following the lifting of the Pristina authorities’ ban on imports of Serbian goods, Serbian products have recovered around 80 percent of their previous share of the Kosovo market in value terms, although some products are still not present in the volumes recorded before the measure was introduced. He points out that, given the strong competitiveness of the Serbian economy in that market, opening all crossings to Serbian goods would result in exports exceeding the levels recorded before the blockade.

In its 2026 Kosovo Report, the European Commission recommended that Pristina ensure the free movement of Serbian goods through all crossings, while Stanic notes that CEFTA had also issued warnings to Pristina, yet the blockade remained in place for a long time.

Asked whether the Kosovo Government could be expected to work toward opening all crossings following the European Commission’s report, Stanic told Kosovo Online that the Pristina authorities could not be described as a reliable partner.

“Given our experience over the past five or six years, when we talk about the Pristina authorities, we cannot say that they are a reliable partner. Their business community, however, is a reliable partner. They genuinely seek goods from Serbia and, in a way, very quickly reopen and restore channels of cooperation as soon as the political circumstances improve,” he said.

According to Stanic, a comparison of the first nine months of 2026 with the same period in 2022—before the Pristina authorities introduced unilateral measures and the blockade on Serbian goods in 2023—shows that trade has recovered to around 80 percent of its previous level in value terms and 74 percent in volume terms.

“This means that it is close to the pre-crisis level, and in that respect this is genuinely a good result, given all the restrictions the Serbian economy has faced in the Kosovo and Metohija market over the past three years,” Stanic stressed.

He added that recovery levels varied across product categories, as some products had not returned to their pre-blockade levels, while others had performed even better than before.This was the case, for example, with cars, pharmaceutical shipments, clothing and aluminum, which are now being sold in greater quantities than previously.

Exports of beverages, particularly mineral water, certain iron and steel products and cereals, however, have not returned to their previous levels and remain significantly below the average recovery rate of around 80 percent in the Kosovo market, Stanic said. Dairy and confectionery products, meanwhile, are broadly in line with that average.

“It is important to emphasize, however, that although the blockade has been lifted, a partial blockade remains in place—not only because not all administrative crossings are operational, but also because the capacity of the Merdare crossing is relatively limited in view of the Serbian economy’s overall need to place goods on the Kosovo and Metohija market. In addition to the European Commission, CEFTA also warned Pristina, yet the blockade lasted for a long time. It was as though there was insufficient willingness to put pressure on Pristina to lift the restriction, or to ensure that what has now been lifted is implemented at 100 percent capacity. If all those administrative crossings were opened, businesses would no longer lose revenue. It is estimated that the introduction of the blockade and all of its subsequent consequences, including the limited capacity of the administrative crossings, have cost our economy around €325 million in unrealized business,” Stanic said.

Asked whether opening other crossings in addition to Merdare would enable Serbian goods to regain their pre-ban market position, or whether some businesses had permanently withdrawn from the Kosovo market, Stanic said that opening all crossings would result in exports exceeding pre-blockade levels, given the strong competitiveness of the Serbian economy in that market.

“But if your truck has to wait at the border for several hours, and sometimes even several days, that simply discourages producers from returning to the extent they were present before, particularly when there is a risk that Pristina could introduce another unilateral blockade at any time, outside the framework of CEFTA agreements and contrary not only to recommendations but also to the obligations arising from the European integration process of the entire region,” he noted.