Uncontrolled expansion of the illegal arms market in Europe could also have consequences for the Western Balkans

Written by Zeljko Sajn for Kosovo Online

As international diplomacy intensifies efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, it is becoming increasingly clear that a potential ceasefire would not automatically bring an end to security risks. One of the most difficult questions will be what happens to the enormous quantities of weapons that, over more than four years of war, have ended up in the hands of the military, volunteer formations, and civilians.

The experience of the United Nations shows that major armed conflicts are followed by a new and often lengthy phase—disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of former combatants, as well as the registration, collection, storage, and destruction of surplus weapons. If this process does not take place, weapons can remain a source of crime, political violence, and instability for years and can also end up on illegal markets beyond the borders of the country in which the war was fought.

For precisely this reason, arms control could become one of the key elements of a future peace agreement for Ukraine. Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko estimated as early as 2024 that between one and five million weapons of various types were in the possession of civilians. Ukrainian officials subsequently warned that establishing a unified system for the registration and control of firearms would be one of the greatest challenges of the post-conflict period.

For the Balkan countries, this issue carries additional significance. The experience of the former Yugoslavia demonstrated that the consequences of wartime proliferation of weapons do not disappear with the signing of a peace agreement. Some weapons remained beyond institutional control, while certain quantities found their way into the hands of criminal groups and onto the European black market years later.

This is particularly important for Kosovo and Metohija and the wider Western Balkans, which remain situated along important routes for illegal arms trafficking. Any new large-scale influx of weapons onto the European black market following the end of the war in Ukraine would represent an additional security challenge for a region that has already faced the consequences of the wars of the 1990s.

The European Union, Europol, Interpol, and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime have for years warned of the dangers posed by the illicit trafficking of small arms and light weapons. Experience has shown that this risk can be reduced only through effective registration systems, secure stockpile management, international information sharing, and coordinated police operations.

The experience of other post-conflict societies also illustrates this danger. The United Nations has developed DDR—disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration—programs that have been implemented in numerous countries, from Mozambique and Sierra Leone to Bosnia and Herzegovina and other areas affected by war. Their purpose is not merely to collect weapons but also to prevent former combatants and armed groups from becoming a lasting source of instability.

UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu has stated that, over the past three decades, DDR has become an integral part of peace operations around the world and has played an important role in preventing violence, promoting stabilization, and supporting political processes. This demonstrates that the international community does not regard disarmament as merely a technical issue, but as one of the foundations of sustainable peace.

Such an approach also stems from the Charter of the United Nations. Article 1 identifies the maintenance of international peace and security as one of the Organization's principal purposes, while Article 11 authorizes the General Assembly to consider principles governing disarmament and the regulation of armaments. The international legal framework has been further developed through the UN Firearms Protocol and the UN Programme of Action to Prevent, Combat and Eradicate the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons.

A future peace agreement for Ukraine should therefore also address the question of what happens to weapons once the war ends. The registration, collection, secure storage, and destruction of surplus weapons, accompanied by international oversight and clearly defined deadlines, could prove just as important to long-term stability as the political guarantees contained in the agreement itself.

For Serbia and Kosovo and Metohija, this is not merely a distant issue related to Ukraine. Any uncontrolled expansion of the illegal arms market in Europe could have consequences for the Western Balkans, particularly given the region's experience with organized crime, smuggling routes, and the large quantities of weapons left behind after previous conflicts.

A war may end with the signing of an agreement, but peace is not secured by a signature alone. The real test begins when it becomes necessary to prevent weapons from one war from becoming fuel for new conflicts and criminal activity. Controlling the millions of weapons in Ukraine will therefore be not only a Ukrainian challenge but a European security challenge as well. At the same time, it could become one of the first major challenges facing the next Secretary-General of the United Nations—to use the Organization's existing mechanisms to help ensure that any eventual peace in Ukraine is not merely an end to the fighting, but the beginning of a long-term process of disarmament and stabilization.