Which way does the see-saw tilt in Kosovo-West relations?

While some analysts and politicians in Pristina warn that relations between Kosovo and the West are strained and that their partnership is at risk, the German ambassador to Kosovo raises a glass to celebrate 25 years of friendship and cooperation, and Kosovo’s Deputy Prime Minister holds meetings at the U.S. State Department. Perspectives on the current state of relations between Pristina and the West vary, with some suggesting the relationship isn’t what it was five or ten years ago, while others maintain there is no real rift, even when Pristina faces criticism from its allies.

Written by Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

The current Kosovo government and its Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, are often blamed for any strains in relations with the West. Analyst Selam Hajrizi believes Kurti’s four-year tenure has created tensions with the international community, while political scientist Melazim Koci attributes part of the responsibility to President Vjosa Osmani for her silence or delayed reactions to decisions that have "hurt" allies.

Analyst Mentor Nazarko from Tirana describes Kosovo’s relations with the West as being at their lowest point.

Criticism of Kurti’s government has been particularly sharp over Kosovo coming under EU sanctions in June 2023 for failing to take steps to reduce tensions in the north. However, these sanctions are not visibly enforced, as they haven’t led to interruptions in visits or contacts with Kosovo officials, nor have they restricted access to European funds. For instance, Kosovo is set to receive €882 million from the Western Balkans Growth Plan.

Aleksandar Mitic, a research associate at the Institute for International Politics and Economics in Belgrade, told Kosovo Online that relations between Kosovo and the West are not at an especially low point, despite frequent claims to the contrary. He notes that there are some critical tones toward Pristina compared to the period when the West orchestrated Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence, but there have been no fundamental changes in the West’s approach to Pristina.

“We’ve seen significant manipulation over the past two years regarding so-called sanctions against Pristina, which have been a farce from the start. Quint countries often played a ‘good cop, bad cop’ routine, but the fact remains that nothing has fundamentally changed. The pressure has been exceptionally weak. This is best illustrated by the fact that Albin Kurti has not shifted his positions even slightly on relations with the Serbian community, the implementation of the Brussels Agreement—particularly regarding the Community of Serb Municipalities—or his rhetoric toward Belgrade. This means either Albin Kurti is stronger than the entire West and Quint or that they haven’t pressured him,” Mitic observed.

He added that Kurti’s recent activities—meetings in Brussels, Paris, and regular contacts with EU officials, albeit not always at the highest levels—do not suggest that he is in the kind of isolation some might want to portray.

“This is particularly disappointing for the West, which doesn’t stand by its word. It would be much better if they took concrete action and transitioned from words to deeds. However, I’m not optimistic in this regard because I believe that in their joint endeavor to legitimize so-called Kosovo sovereignty, they are effectively succeeding through the ethnic cleansing of Serbs and their exclusion from institutions,” Mitic said.

Mitic concluded that Kurti would continue to push his narrative until the end of the election campaign, potentially facing some criticism from the West but persisting on a path that has so far yielded results—namely, the removal of Serbs from Kosovo and deepening divisions with Belgrade.

Mazlum Baraliu, a professor of constitutional law in Pristina, does not believe Kosovo-West relations are at a low point, arguing that relations between countries are primarily driven by strategic, economic, or political interests.

“There have been disagreements on some issues, which is why certain measures have been imposed—referred to by some as sanctions. Hundreds of millions of euros and dollars have not been allocated to Kosovo, even though they were intended as loans, subsidies, or aid,” Baraliu told Kosovo Online. However, he believes that the U.S. will not abandon the Balkans or Kosovo and that relations have not been seriously disrupted, even though positions on certain issues have not been aligned.

“In international relations, interests take precedence over everything else. I do not see the Americans abandoning, nor will they abandon, the Balkans or Kosovo, as these are zones of interest for the United States,” Baraliu said.

Helena Ivanov, a research associate at the Henry Jackson Research Centre, believes that relations between Kosovo’s authorities and their Western partners are at their lowest point in the last five or ten years, considering Kurti’s frequent unilateral actions despite international community advice.

She recalled Pristina’s actions concerning license plates, mayoral elections in the north, and the debate over reopening the bridge on the Ibar.

“These actions have led to sanctions against Kosovo, which explains why relations today are worse than they were before. However, these are far from serious sanctions that Pristina’s government feels substantively, and they haven’t prompted Kurti’s administration to change its policies. Still, compared to five or ten years ago, these relations are indeed worse due to this government’s behavior on one hand and the lack of substantive progress in normalizing relations between Belgrade and Pristina on the other,” Ivanov said.

Although some believe Pristina’s unilateral moves are unlikely to occur without at least tacit approval from some of Kosovo’s Western allies, Ivanov noted that the official stance of all international partners is that they do not support any form of unilateral actions, whether by Pristina or Belgrade.

“Any analysis regarding whether they receive behind-the-scenes support would be speculative. However, what we can definitively conclude is that despite the international community’s objections to Pristina’s frequent unilateral actions, they haven’t imposed penalties that would practically prevent Pristina’s government from taking such actions. Why the international community operates this way is something few of us can assert with certainty,” Ivanov explained.

She added that her assumption is that the international community’s stance on Kosovo was established over 20 years ago and that they have worked for decades to fully implement this position, which includes normalizing relations between Belgrade and Pristina and recognizing Kosovo.

“The international community is in a difficult position with a government like Albin Kurti’s, which is willing to act contrary to its advice. They now face two options: either backtrack and change a policy they’ve adhered to for over 20 years, or continue hoping that by issuing threats or taking symbolic measures against Pristina, they might persuade Kurti’s government to become a constructive partner in the normalization process between Belgrade and Pristina and to adhere to long-agreed commitments, specifically the establishment of the Community of Serb Municipalities in northern Kosovo,” Ivanov concluded.