Kosovo and Serbia: The latest political conundrum and how to get out of it?

Written for Kosovo Online by Dr Helena Ivanov, Associate Research Fellow, Henry Jackson Society

Despite optimistic tones coming from the EU following Brussels and Ohrid talks earlier this year, tensions sparked in Kosovo yet again. On May 26^th, things took a turn for the worse when three elected mayors, of northern municipalities predominately inhabited by the Serbs – Zvecani, Zubin Potok and Leposavici – tried to enter their buildings and assume office.

In protest, the Serbs gathered outside, preventing the mayors from entering due to their claim that they have no legitimacy to govern. Kosovo Police retaliated and used shock bombs and tear gas to disperse the protestors. The West was quick to respond. First, they sent The Kosovo Force (KFOR), a NATO-led international peacekeeping force, to monitor the situation. Second, officials condemned the Kosovo authorities for escalating what has always been a complex and challenging situation.

But the critical voices from the West brought little effect.

In the coming days, the elected mayors tried yet again to access their buildings, only this time, violence also erupted between some protestors and KFOR troops – leaving dozens of protestors and 30 KFOR members wounded.

Western politicians, yet again, called for both sides to de-escalate. The USA also decided to penalise Kosovo for this escalation by cancelling Kosovo’s participation in Defender Europe 23 – a joint exercise between U.S. and NATO allies - and suggested it may take further steps if needed.

Despite these calls for de-escalation, Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti claims that the elected mayors are the only people with legitimacy to govern, protesters are gathering and spreading a 250 m-long Serbian flag, and barbed wires are erected around municipal buildings.

This comes in the backdrop of local elections held in April 2023. Despite substantial pressures from the international community, the Serb political parties and citizens boycotted these elections. Consequently, the turnaround was historically low – standing at only 3.47% - raising questions on the newly elected mayors’ legitimacy.

Serbia and Kosovo are two sides with mutually exclusive political aims. Kosovo demands full autonomy and sovereignty over its territory. Serbia refuses to recognise Kosovo as independent. Both governments stoke nationalist agendas for their political gains.

Overcoming this impasse will not come easily.

The international community and especially the EU must take things seriously. First, they must force both sides to de-escalate and halt any actions that could increase tensions.

Kosovo must tell their majors to stop attending their offices, and Serbs need to stop protesting in return. Negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina solely focused on de-escalation should start immediately – and to ensure success they must be mediated by both the EU and the USA.

And a new round of elections with the Serb political representatives partaking is required to ensure legitimacy in the eyes of the Serbian people.

Finally, the USA needs to step up its game in the region. It is clear that the EU has limited ability to actually enforce the deals between Kosovo and Serbia – the latest events represent a clear violation of the agreements in Brussels and Ohrid.

So far, the EU predominately relied on verbal cues – but to a little effect.

We need serious mechanisms of ensuring that both Serbia and Kosovo continue to abide by the deals they have accepted – otherwise, the international community risks losing credibility in the region. 

And, continued destabilisation would only allow for adversaries to the West to step in as an ally to the region.