Berliner Zeitung from Zurich: Vucic’s "Insights without illusions"

The publisher of the newspaper Berliner Zeitung, Holger Friedrich, who attended last week's panel "Zurich Speech," organized by the local magazine Weltwoche, described Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic as a man who speaks freely and provides an opportunity to better understand the connections between geopolitical blocs, the countries operating within them, and the responsible individuals, reports Deutsche Welle.

According to Friedrich, Vucic is accessible as a witness and attempts to mediate between positions, reports RTCG.

“It is a friendly, sometimes unusually open conversation. Without sharpness, without the cynical remarks that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban likes to interject,” he emphasized.

In a very extensive article titled "Insights Without Illusions," the author evaluates the Zurich gathering as a “memorable meeting” and notes that it was marked “on several occasions by silence due to shock, and sometimes confusion,” which Vucic "took note of."

“As a German, you repeatedly feel as though he is addressing you, both indirectly and directly,” Friedrich writes.

Questionable Sanctions Policy

According to Friedrich, Vucic stated that the currently dominant "principle of hope" is misleading — it did not work in 1914, 1939/40, or 1990, nor did it work in Serbia in 1998. “Today we have even more to lose; the people of Ukraine have already paid that price. And the conflict will escalate if politicians do not begin to take active countermeasures. This is precisely what is required from a rational perspective. Ultimately, the biggest loser in the conflict is Ukraine, followed by Russia and Europe,” the author stresses.

Regarding Vucic's political skills, the author notes that “he refrained from naming those who benefit from the conflict.”

From the perspective of the Serbian President, Friedrich continues, the "excessive" Western sanctions policy, as a consequential expression of the dispute over spheres of influence, produces more losers than winners. The text conveys Vucic's assessment that the impact of the EU’s 14 sanctions packages against Russia is “questionable from an economic perspective,” citing the problems faced by the German automotive industry as an example and suggesting that what is instead necessary is “an adjustment of values and principles that are globally applicable and must be respected by all nations.”

How to Calm the Conflict in the Balkans?

“The path to a solution might lie in Trump’s presidency starting in 2025,” Vucic suggested.

The U.S. would have to redesign its competitive relationship with China. If this succeeded quickly, the U.S. could also reorganize its relations with Europe.

However, it would be "romantic" to assume that a Trump administration would act “fairly.” At this point, Vucic’s memories of the Kosovo conflict in 1998 and 1999 came back.

“At that time, NATO attacked Serbia without a UN mandate and contrary to international law to enable the secession of Kosovo from Serbian territory. Arguments in favor of Ukraine's territorial integrity are, therefore, well understood in Serbia,” Vucic said, according to the author.

Speaking about the Balkans, Vucic stated that “the conflict could be calmed if the region were fully admitted to the EU,” writes the publisher of Berliner Zeitung, citing Vucic’s examples of successful precedents in modern European history such as South Tyrol, Alsace, and modern German-Polish relations, which were "ensured by Germany’s final renunciation of its former eastern territories in the 4+2 Agreement of 1990."

“Political leaders such as Macron, Scholz, von der Leyen, and also Putin, must take this into account regarding Ukraine,” the German newspaper reports Vucic’s reflections, immediately followed by his statement that, “after many personal conversations on all sides, I have yet to see any willingness to make this happen. ‘Macron and Putin told me they cannot afford to lose,’” the Serbian President is quoted.

"Stoic School" and “Audience Discomfort”

Vucic also reported in Zurich on his recent conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Budapest a few weeks ago, writes the German newspaper, stating that the Serbian President “sees an increased potential for escalation in the coming weeks — including the nuclear option — especially due to the unwillingness of all sides.”

“This was the second time there was confusion in the room. The objectivity with which Vucic described personalities and their actions seemed to come from the Stoic school. Since taking office in 2017, he has held 21 personal meetings with the Russian president. In this regard, Vucic can be considered an expert on the Kremlin. However, his anecdotes from conversations shortly before the outbreak of war in February 2022 and from the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing increased the discomfort of the audience. He conveyed that on the Russian side, there is great determination and that it ignores Western expectations. He also spoke of Putin's self-confidence, rooted in historical perspectives, similar to other Russian decision-makers.”

“You can dismiss this as propaganda — or you can use it to define benchmarks for decision-making spaces,” Vucic concluded, with the author noting that “the audience, comprised of globally successful entrepreneurs, listened attentively.”

EU, Lithium, Expo

The article also states that Vucic spoke about Serbia's entry into the EU:

“For this reason, Vucic refrained from visiting Kazan during the BRICS summit, Kazakhstan, or accompanying Viktor Orban on a trip to Moscow.” Vucic has no optimistic prognosis regarding the EU’s readiness to accept Serbia: “Full membership is uncertain and depends on many factors.”

The growing IT industry in Serbia and lithium deposits were also topics of discussion:

“There will be no sale of raw materials to the highest bidder. The deposits are of high quality; Serbia evidently plans to build the entire value chain, from mining to battery production, within its own country.”

Expo 2027 in Belgrade, a new stadium, and the high-speed railway line between Belgrade and Budapest were also mentioned, emphasizing that the winner of the train procurement tender, competing with German and Chinese bidders, was the Swiss company Stadler.

Finally:

“The charismatic head of Stadler, Peter Spuhler, pointed out in Zurich that the Berlin Wall once passed through Stadler’s factory in Berlin — a testament that borders motivated by bloc politics are not permanent, that all those who died because of the Wall died in vain, and that those politically responsible at the time inadequately used the alternatives available to them.”