Gogic: It is not realistic for the new Kosovo government to form the CSM, regardless of who comes to power

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic told Kosovo Online that, regardless of who forms the next Kosovo government, it is unrealistic to expect that they will proceed with the establishment of the Community of Serb Municipalities, stating that there is a "tacit consensus" among all Albanian parties on this matter, with only Self-Determination leader Albin Kurti "saying it out loud."

"It is not realistic for the new government to form the CSM, no matter who forms it. There is a kind of tacit consensus among Albanian parties that there is no rush to establish the CSM and that it could potentially be a bargaining chip that Kosovo offers Serbia in exchange for recognition," Gogic said.

According to him, all Albanian parties exclusively link the formation of the CSM to Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo.

"They all think that way, but only Kurti has spoken about it openly. Everyone else has tacitly held this position, as all these parties have been in power and had the opportunity to take concrete steps toward forming the Community, yet they didn’t. Only Kurti made noise about it," he clarified.

At best, he expects that if opposition parties form the new Kosovo government, they might take some symbolic steps "to appease the West."

"These are parties that are more receptive to Western suggestions, and they might submit a draft statute of the Community of Serb Municipalities to the Constitutional Court, as has been requested. And that’s about it. They wouldn’t go beyond that," the political scientist believes.

He also sees justification for this claim in the "strong excuse" that representatives of the future Pristina government would have.

"The municipalities in northern Kosovo are in such a state that forming the Community is not possible. As long as new local assemblies that include Serb representation are not elected, it is pointless to even discuss forming the Community. This is the excuse for the delay. However, it is important to note that if the opposition were to take power now, they would face a powerful Kurti in opposition, who would block this initiative. No one would dare to establish the Community while facing a strong Self-Determination party, knowing the consequences," Gogic emphasized.

Commenting on the expectations of European officials that the new Pristina government will fulfill its Brussels obligations, including forming the CSM, Gogic noted that the leading opposition parties – PDK, LDK, and AAK – are "very cautious about signals from the West."

"None of them follow Kurti’s approach of risking relations with the West over the Serbian community. For them, it is not worth clashing with Serbs to the extent that they would risk isolation, as Kurti did," Gogic said.

During the election campaign, the leader of AAK, Ramush Haradinaj, was the closest to aligning with Western demands, stating that he would immediately submit a draft statute of the CSM to the Constitutional Court upon taking office.Gogic explained that other opposition parties would also offer Serbs "at least minimal concessions."

"Haradinaj is the most inclined to attract attention with his statements, but in general, all three parties would be positioned similarly – that at least some minimal concessions should be made to both Serbs and the West, to avoid ending up in the situation Kurti was in. So, they would be willing to work on this, but the real question is what happens once mandates are confirmed and Self-Determination enters parliament – who would dare provoke a reaction from them?" Gogic concluded.