Gogic: Kosovo could be a model for resolving the issues of Palestine and Ukraine

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic stated that the idea of territorial exchange, mentioned as a potential option following Donald Trump's reelection as US President, could establish Kosovo as a successful model that might later be applied to Palestine and Ukraine.

"The feasibility of the idea of territorial exchange primarily depends on local actors. A few years ago, in 2017 and 2018, it seemed that both Belgrade and Pristina were considering the possibility of resolving the situation through demarcation, that is, territorial exchange. This is why the Trump administration found fertile ground at the time. However, local actors, both Belgrade and Pristina, realized that this might not be the smartest way to resolve the matter. In this sense, it is unlikely that Trump would push for it; he probably wouldn't impose it, but it might be one of his proposals in a package that includes other incentives, such as economic aid for infrastructure projects, which he promised last time," Gogic told Kosovo Online.

At the moment, he believes, neither Belgrade nor Pristina shows interest in this type of solution.

"Especially not with Albin Kurti in power in Pristina, who seems more inclined to seek new territories rather than cede any part of Kosovo," Gogic commented.

When asked how realistic such a scenario is, he recalled that the idea was actively discussed during Trump's previous term, and at that time, no one expected Kosovo to become part of the Middle East peace process, but it turned out to be the case.

"Trump essentially declared the Washington Agreement, accepted by Belgrade and Pristina, as a deal that led to the recognition of Israel and a Muslim state, which he referred to as Kosovo. During discussions about that agreement, the issues of Palestine and Kosovo became interconnected. In both cases, the idea of territorial exchange was in play," Gogic emphasized.

He reminds that Trump's 2020 plan for Palestine explicitly mentioned the idea of territorial exchange as a solution to the conflict with Israel.

"At the same time, there was a version circulating suggesting readiness to resolve the dispute between Belgrade and Pristina by exchanging territories, specifically, northern Kosovo for the Presevo Valley. Drawing from that experience, we can expect this idea to resurface at some point, as Trump clearly favors territorial solutions to conflicts," Gogic said.

He adds that such a connection is possible despite the fact that armed conflicts are ongoing in Gaza and Ukraine, while Kosovo remains an unresolved political issue.

"Unresolved issues still exist, and it is conceivable that Trump could include Kosovo in a broader package, just as he proposes ceding territories to Russia to end the war in Ukraine or previously suggested resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict through territorial exchange. Similarly, the Kosovo issue could reemerge as a potential way to resolve the dispute, or vice versa. Kosovo could serve as a prototype for territorial exchange and demarcation as a conflict resolution method. If Kosovo demonstrates that this approach works as a mechanism to achieve an agreement, it could also be proposed for Ukraine and Palestine," Gogic concluded.