Gogic: Kurti has strong reasons to hold new elections this fall or winter

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic said that Kosovo's caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti has strong reasons to hold new parliamentary elections this fall or winter, even though he may still fall short of securing a two-thirds majority afterward.

As one of the reasons why new elections would suit Kurti, Gogic says that if his Self-Determination Movement were to win more votes, it would secure more seats in the Kosovo parliament, meaning that a Kurti-led government would no longer depend on lawmakers representing non-Serb non-majority communities.

"His majority, if he were to form a government now, would be narrow. It would depend on one or two MPs from the non-majority communities, which in practice means it would be less stable and more vulnerable to pressure. It could easily happen that the international community influences such a government by putting pressure on some representatives of those minority communities or by leveraging them, making it more difficult for the government to secure the quorum needed to pass the budget and other decisions requiring a higher level of parliamentary support. He is certainly the caretaker prime minister, but it would be better for him to have a government backed by more Self-Determination MPs," Gogic told Kosovo Online.

He added that if new elections were held in December and Kurti received stronger public support and won more seats, he would be less dependent on other communities.

"Even if that government lasted only two months, it would have a more comfortable majority. The previous Kosovo Assembly, despite its short term, still passed certain laws and decisions, but at that time Kurti enjoyed greater political comfort because he did not depend on minority representatives," the political scientist said.

According to Gogic, another reason is that Kurti is counting on support from the diaspora, whose votes could bring him closer to the desired two-thirds majority.

"He may not secure a two-thirds majority in the Assembly after the elections, but he could come close enough that, with some defections from the opposition, he could reach that level and approach that magic threshold," our interlocutor said.

He added that Kurti also knows that frequent elections weaken and exhaust the opposition in the long run.

"Unlike Self-Determination, the opposition has increasingly limited resources for elections, while Self-Determination relies on its own party resources, substantial donations from the diaspora, as well as public resources. He campaigns from the position of prime minister and uses public resources for that purpose. He knows that in this marathon against the opposition, he comes out as the winner and that the opposition will become less and less capable of withstanding the pressure that elections bring. Therefore, Kurti has strong reasons to hold new elections this fall or winter, even though he may still not secure a two-thirds majority afterward," Gogic added.