Gogic: Osmani has no intention of overthrowing Kurti, they are connected both ideologically and pragmatically

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic says he doesn't believe in speculations that Kosovo's President Vjosa Osmani would provoke the downfall of Albin Kurti's government through the MPs of the Guxo list because, as he says, there exists both an ideological and pragmatic connection between Osmani and Kurti. He also points out that such a move would not bring political gains to Osmani or the Guxo list she founded, instead, voters would penalize her for such actions, while Self-Determination could retaliate by initiating her impeachment procedure.

Gogic says that this is about spin coming from the opposition, which has an interest in trying to generate conflict between Osmani and Kurti.

"I don't believe in such a scenario for several reasons. Firstly, Osmani left her own party, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), out of solidarity with Kurti. Just when the Americans orchestrated the fall of Kurti's first government because he was dishonest towards them, Osmani stood by Kurti. She could have politically benefited from leaving him at that time and could have become the Prime Minister if she wanted, but she stayed with him, and in a way, she took a risk because, at that moment, it wasn't certain that there would be elections so soon and that she would benefit from supporting him. Osmani became the President of Kosovo thanks to the support of Self-Determination," Gogic recalls.

If the Guxo party were to participate in toppling Kurti's government, Gogic indicates that they wouldn't be able to appoint a prime minister in the current parliamentary term, nor would they gain enough mandates in the next elections to lead a coalition.

"At best, they could be a minor partner in a coalition and have less significance than they do now by supporting Kurti's government. It's more likely that after the new parliamentary elections, which will be held at the latest by early next year, there will be pressure on Osmani's party to align with the new majorities. Although there's also the question of whether that party would pass the threshold, which is uncertain. If they entered parliament, there would likely be pressure for them to join a coalition consisting of everyone else – the Democratic Party of Kosovo, the Democratic League of Kosovo, Haradinaj's alliance, and maybe even the Serbian party. So, I would expect a new combination to emerge after the elections," Gogic says.

However, if the scenario of Guxo initiating the resolution of Kurti's government were to happen, Gogic says it would only be a trick that Kurti would pull off with his associates to move towards early elections if he assesses that it's more politically favorable than waiting for the regular term in February 2025.

Speaking about the similarities and differences between Kurti and Osmani and what she would be like as a negotiator for Kosovo in dialogue with Serbia, our interlocutor says that Osmani is equally radical when it comes to nationalism as Kurti, which has connected them, but she might be more moderate as a dialogue participant only to avoid damaging Kosovo's relations with the Western part of the international community.

As he adds, Osmani was expected to have a different approach because it's generally believed that women in politics are more moderate, she's a relatively young person and educated in the West.

"From her, a different course was expected, but she has become perhaps the most radical politician on the Kosovo political scene. Her radicalism is directed towards Serbia and Serbs; she often refers to Serbia in her public appearances as a 'genocidal state.' She's not someone who has shown any favoritism or willingness to compromise with Serbs and Serbia. Osmani speaks Serbian fluently, but she has never addressed the media in Serbian, nor has her cabinet shown readiness to respect language rights and provide translation at public events. So, she is building her political image on nationalism and an anti-Serb stance," Gogic says.

One thing that sets Osmani apart from Kurti, he adds, is their relationship with the West. Although Osmani is radical and uncompromising towards Serbs, she is not a supporter of confronting Kosovo with Western partners.

"Escobar pointed out during his visit to Kosovo that Osmani was the best partner the Americans had in Kosovo. She wouldn't pursue isolationist policies or policies that would damage Kosovo's relations with the Western international community just to make a compromise in dialogue with Belgrade. In that sense, she would be more susceptible to pressures and demands coming from the West, which sometimes actually favor the Serbian side. So, she would be somewhat easier for dialogue, and maybe the dialogue would yield greater results. Perhaps as a dialogue participant, she would be more moderate so as not to jeopardize Kosovo's European perspective, and then she would show a greater inclination towards compromises. Therefore, she would be less inclined to take unilateral steps that have often been condemned by the West," Gogic says.